FROM A NOTHING ELECTION TO A SEISMIC SHIFT Nik Nanos From his exclusive daily tracking poll and leadership index for CTV News and the Globe and Mail, Contributing Writer Nik Nanos captured the ebb and flow, direction and mood of the 2011 election campaign. What began as a boring election turned into a seismic shift, with Stephen Harper’s Conservatives finally winning a majority, the NDP graduating to Official Opposition because of the orange surge in Quebec, the Liberals squeezed both ways and relegated to third place for the first time ever, and the Bloc Québécois virtually wiped out in Quebec. Our pollster analyzes the roller coaster ride. Chaque flottement, changement de ton et revirement de cette campagne électorale a été capté par notre collaborateur Nik Nanos, qui a mené au jour le jour un sondage de dépistage exclusif pour le réseau CTV et le Globe and Mail. Une campagne d’abord sans intérêt, qui s’est soudainement emballée jusqu’à provoquer un véritable séisme. Résultat : les conservateurs de Stephen Harper ont enfin raflé une majorité de sièges, la vague orange qui a déferlé sur le Québec a propulsé le NPD au rang d’opposition officielle, les libéraux pris en étau ont été relégués au troisième rang pour la première fois de leur histoire et le Bloc québécois a presque été éliminé de la carte électorale. he expected incremental change election turned significant advantage out of the gate with an 11-point into a seismic shift for all of Canada’s federal politi- lead over the Liberals. Two weeks prior to the election, T cal parties. For the Conservatives, the 2011 election Nanos had the Conservatives at 38.6 percent with the should be considered a capping achievement: Stephen Liberals at 27.6 percent, the NDP at 19.9 percent, the BQ Harper moved from merging the former Canadian Alliance at 10.1 percent and the Greens at 3.8 percent nationally. and Progressive Conservative parties to winning two minor- The Conservatives were well organized and well funded ity governments and finally forming a majority Tory gov- and had just released a pre-election budget. The one pos- ernment. For the Liberals, it was an election mired in futility sible vulnerability was related to the opposition narrative with a leader whose personal brand was damaged by the on the defeat of the government on a contempt of Conservatives even before the writ was dropped. The Jack Parliament motion. Layton New Democrats registered a breakthrough in Quebec From a research standpoint, what is critical to observe is and are now Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition, argely at the that throughout the campaign the Conservatives main- expense of a tired Bloc Québécois. Even Canada’s Greens tained their advantage over the opposition parties of any- managed to win their first federal seat. where from 5 to 14 percentage points (figure 1). The Harper A look at the Nanos nightly tracking numbers for CTV win was never in serious doubt. The only issue was the pos- News and the Globe and Mail reveals a number of key narra- sible magnitude of the win and how the popular vote would tives. In a sense, the election outcome was driven by person- convert into seats in the House of Commons. ality, powerful regional forces and the ground war fought by Harper’s personal scores on competence, trust and party election machines. As the only research organization vision were strong and he enjoyed a comfortable advantage releasing publicly available nightly tracking in the cam- for most of the campaign over the other federal party lead- paign, Nanos captured the ebb and flow, direction and mood ers in the daily Nanos Leadership Index (figure 2). of voters throughout the 2011 national election journey. For about two-thirds of the campaign, the trend line As he emerged from Rideau Hall on day one of the was relatively stable, with the Conservatives enjoying an campaign, Prime Minister Stephen Harper had two clear advantage over the second-place Liberals. The New messages: that he would seek a majority mandate; and Democrats registered an initial drop in the first week, with that Canadians should be wary of a Liberal/NDP coalition an increase in Liberal support suggesting that the Liberal supported by the Bloc. The Harper Conservatives had a objective of consolidating the non-Harper voter universe 14 OPTIONS POLITIQUES JUIN-JUILLET 2011 From a nothing election to a seismic shift was possible. As the campaign entered only federalist party with no “ethical In terms of the national Nanos tracking its second week, support for the New baggage.” Also, Quebecers were the numbers, the increase in NDP support in Democrats cycled to a low of 13 per- group of Canadians most uncomfortable Canada’s second-largest province cent nationally, largely on a softening with the concept of a Harper majority buoyed up the national support for the of support in the battlegrounds of and were the least likely to embrace the NDP and propelled it into second place, Ontario and Quebec. This would be Harper “ask” of a majority mandate. The ahead of the Liberals. A look at Canada the NDP low-water mark in the 2011 New Democrats in Quebec witnessed the outside of Quebec suggests that the impact of the Quebec orange From a research standpoint, what is critical to observe is that surge was largely clustered in throughout the campaign the Conservatives maintained their pockets of voters across the advantage over the opposition parties of anywhere from 5 to country where the New Democrats had done well in 14 percentage points. The Harper win was never in serious the past either federally or doubt. The only issue was the possible magnitude of the win provincially. For many and how the popular vote would convert into seats in the Canadians, there was no dra- House of Commons. matic orange surge — it was more a feeling that the New election and the Liberals would soon alignment of the appeal of Layton’s per- Democrats were doing better in this elec- see their hopes as fleeting. sonality, policy and lack of negative tion than the past. party baggage. After a week of positive The Prairie provinces, throughout s the campaign unfolded, the first personal performance on the part of the election, remained a bedrock of A leading indicator of possible Layton, the Nanos numbers captured an Conservative support, with the Tories growth for the Layton New Democrats NDP surge in Quebec with a dramatic enjoying support at or above 50 percent emerged on the Nanos Leadership corresponding collapse of the Bloc on any given day of the campaign. In Index. Starting April 11, a little over 10 Québécois (figure 3). By the end of the Atlantic Canada the closing race tight- days into the campaign, Layton started campaign, Layton’s numbers improved ened into a three- way race between the to outscore Ignatieff. With a focus on to such an extent that he challenged Conservatives, the Liberals and the New issues that Canadians cared about such Stephen Harper on the leadership index. Democrats. In British Columbia, the as health care and a comparatively New Democrats were also registering a positive campaign with a seemingly or all the drama of the “orange good showing behind the front-run- amicable leader in the public lens, the F surge” in Quebec, one must remem- ning Tories in that province. NDP numbers started to move — ber that there was not a correspondingly At the start of the campaign, Ontario specifically in the province of Quebec, large contagion effect outside of Quebec. was considered a key battleground that where Layton soon captured the top leadership spot. In contrast to Layton’s comfortable and friendly demeanour, FIGURE 1. NATIONAL BALLOT FIGURE 2. LEADERSHIP INDEX Gilles Duceppe was edgy and aggres- 50 sive. Lacking an issue such as culture 140 or identity to galvanize Quebecers, the Conservative 120 Bloc campaign and Duceppe were 40 Stephen Harper adrift and without focus. As with the Liberal 100 Mario Dumont effect, when Quebecers 30 t embraced the ADQ leader and pro- n 80 ce e r r pelled him and his party into second Pe Jack Layton 20 NDP Sco 60 place in the 2007 provincial election, Michael Ignatieff Quebecers were moving toward Layton 40 and the New Democrats. 10 Bloc Gilles Duceppe In a sense, the NDP was very well Green 20 positioned on a number of fronts. First, 0 0 Elizabeth May 10 12 16 18 20 22 24 26 30 y 1 its level of accessible voters among Bloc . 2 . 4 . 6 . 8 . 29 . 31 a r r r r . y 08 . 14 . 28 r r r r r r r r r a ar ar r r . 1 . 3 . 5 . 7 . 9 y 1 y 2011 r r r r r . 11 . 15 . 28 . 30 a Ap Ap Ap Ap . 13 . 15 . 17 . 19 . 21 . 23 . 25 . 27 . 29 M M y M a r r r r r r r r r r Ap Ap Ap supporters was strong. In terms of policy, Ap Ap Ap Ap Ap Ap E-D a Ap Ap ar ar ar M Ap Ap Ap Ap Ap Ap E-D Ap Ap Ap Ap Ap Ap Ap Ap Ap M M M e d many NDP positions including views on n O social issues, the environment and for- eign policy aligned well with the views Source: CTV/Globe/Nanos Research, 2011 Federal Source: CTV/Globe/Nanos Research, 2011 Federal Election. Election. of Quebecers. Of note, it was also the Note: Margin of error ±3.7%.