2016-2017 Transmission Planning Process Unified Planning Assumptions and Study Plan March 31, 2016 Final ISO Market and Infrastructure Development Division March 31, 2016 Intentionally left blank Study Plan 2016-2017 Transmission Planning Process Table of Contents 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................ 1 2. Overview of 2016-2017 Stakeholder Process Activities and Communications ....... 2 2.1 Stakeholder Meetings and Market Notices ............................................................. 2 2.2 Interregional Coordination ...................................................................................... 5 2.3 Stakeholder Comments ......................................................................................... 5 2.4 Availability of Information ....................................................................................... 5 3. Conceptual Statewide Transmission Plan .............................................................. 6 4. Reliability Assessments ......................................................................................... 7 4.1 Reliability Standards and Criteria ........................................................................... 7 4.1.1 NERC Reliability Standards ................................................................................... 7 4.1.2 WECC Regional Business Practice ........................................................................ 7 4.1.3 California ISO Planning Standards ......................................................................... 7 4.2 Frequency of the study .......................................................................................... 8 4.3 Study Horizon and Years ....................................................................................... 8 4.4 Study Areas ........................................................................................................... 8 4.5 Transmission Assumptions ...................................................................................10 4.5.1 Transmission Projects ...........................................................................................10 4.5.2 Reactive Resources ..............................................................................................10 4.5.3 Protection System .................................................................................................10 4.5.4 Control Devices ....................................................................................................10 4.6 Load Forecast Assumptions ..................................................................................10 4.6.1 Energy and Demand Forecast ..............................................................................10 4.6.2 Methodologies to Derive Bus Level Forecast ........................................................11 4.6.2.1 Pacific Gas and Electric Service Area ............................................................ 11 4.6.2.2 Southern California Edison Service Area ....................................................... 12 4.6.2.3 San Diego Gas and Electric Service Area ...................................................... 13 4.6.2.4 Valley Electric Association Service Area ........................................................ 14 4.6.3 Power Factor Assumptions ...................................................................................14 4.6.4 Self-Generation .....................................................................................................15 4.7 Generation Assumptions .......................................................................................17 4.7.1 Generation Projects ..............................................................................................17 4.7.2 Renewable Generation .........................................................................................17 4.7.2.1 Renewable generation dispatch ..................................................................... 18 4.7.3 Thermal generation ...............................................................................................19 4.7.4 Hydroelectric Generation ......................................................................................19 California ISO/MID i March 31, 2016 Study Plan 2016-2017 Transmission Planning Process 4.7.5 Generation Retirements ........................................................................................19 4.7.6 OTC Generation ...................................................................................................20 4.7.7 LTPP Authorization Procurement ..........................................................................24 4.8 Preferred Resources .............................................................................................26 4.8.1 Methodology .........................................................................................................26 4.8.2 Demand Response ...............................................................................................27 4.8.3 Energy Storage .....................................................................................................28 4.9 Major Path Flows and Interchange ........................................................................32 4.10 Operating Procedures ...........................................................................................33 4.11 Study Scenarios ....................................................................................................34 4.11.1 Base Scenarios .....................................................................................................34 4.11.2 Sensitivity Studies .................................................................................................36 4.12 Study Base Cases ................................................................................................38 4.13 Contingencies: ......................................................................................................39 4.14 Study Tools ...........................................................................................................41 4.15 Technical Studies .................................................................................................41 4.15.1 Power Flow Contingency Analysis ........................................................................41 4.15.2 Post Transient Analyses .......................................................................................41 4.15.3 Post Transient Voltage Stability Analyses .............................................................42 4.15.4 Post Transient Voltage Deviation Analyses ...........................................................42 4.15.5 Voltage Stability and Reactive Power Margin Analyses ........................................42 4.15.6 Transient Stability Analyses ..................................................................................42 4.16 Corrective Action Plans .........................................................................................42 5. Local Capacity Requirement Assessment .............................................................43 5.1 Near-Term Local Capacity Requirement (LCR).....................................................43 5.2 Long-Term Local Capacity Requirement Assessment ...........................................44 6. Policy Driven 33% RPS Transmission Plan Analysis ............................................45 6.1 Public Policy Objectives ........................................................................................45 6.1.1 Achieving 33% renewable energy on an annual basis ..........................................46 6.1.2 Supporting RA deliverability status for needed renewable resources outside the ISO balancing authority area ...........................................................................46 6.2 Study methodology ...............................................................................................47 6.3 Study scope ..........................................................................................................48 6.4 Coordination with Phase II of GIP .........................................................................48 7. Special Studies .....................................................................................................50 7.1 50% Renewable Energy Goal for 2030 .................................................................50 7.2 Frequency Response Assessment ........................................................................50 California ISO/MID ii March 31, 2016 Study Plan 2016-2017 Transmission Planning Process 7.3 Gas-Electric Reliability ..........................................................................................51 7.4 Economic Early Retirement of Gas Generation Assessment .................................51 7.5 Characteristics of Slow Response Local Capacity Resources ...............................51 8. Economic Planning Study .....................................................................................52 9. Long-Term Congestion Revenue Rights (LT CRR) ...............................................53 10. Interregional Transmission Projects ......................................................................54 11. Contact Information ..............................................................................................55 12. Stakeholder Comments and ISO Responses ........................................................56