NIGER Monthly Food Security Update November 2006 Alert level: No alert Watch Warning Emergency CONTENT Summary of the food and nutritional situation Summary of the food and In general, the food situation is satisfactory due to a good agropastoral season. Market nutritional situation ........................1 supplies are ample and grain prices are relatively low, which has helped significantly Current hazards summary .............2 improve household food access and income levels. Status of the agropastoral season 2 Market conditions ..........................4 Record crop production in the Sahel and a 27.9 million MT harvest in Nigeria, a Food security, health and nutrition 5 neighboring country with which Niger has a heavy cross-border trade in crops and Relief measures ............................6 animal products, are strengthening region-wide food availability. The assessment of the current agropastoral season resulted in surplus grain and forage balance sheets and helped pinpoint vulnerable areas with localized crop and forage production deficits. Efforts to identify areas vulnerable to food insecurity problems are still in progress, but the size of the food-insecure population will probably be smaller this year than last. A look at conditions in livestock-raising areas shows a visible improvement in pasture availability and good water levels in watering holes, as well as rather positive terms of trade for grain/livestock from the standpoint of herders. Though conditions are somewhat improved, the malnutrition rate is still running high, with efforts underway to bring malnutrition rates down to an acceptable level. The major change in market conditions is a sharp drop in grain prices. In general, November prices for millet were down 6 percent from October, but on par with the five-year average. Timeline of important events and warning signs Current hazards summary • Crop production deficits in the northern reaches of the farm belt and the southwestern reaches of the Tillabery region. • Large pasture deficits in certain livestock-raising areas in the Tanout and Tchintabaraden departments. USAID/Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET)-NIGER Tel: 041-532530; 265 15 48 92 - [email protected] World Food Programme-NIGER/VAM; Tel: 00221 72 23 20 NIGER: FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION UPDATE NOVEMBER 2006 Status of the agropastoral season, production forecast and grain balance sheet for 2006-2007 After a faltering start, which raised serious concerns, the 2006/07 agropastoral season is ending on an up note, with a 491, 400 MT grain surplus. Progress of the season All parts of the country received regular, moderately heavy rainfall over the period between mid-July and the third dekad of September, with these same conditions continuing into the first dekad of October in certain localized areas. Cumulative rainfall totals as of October 10th ranged from 300 to 950 mm in most parts of the farm belt, with rainfall figures for 60 percent of the gauging stations down from last year. However, rainfall rates for this season at 73 percent of the stations were running above the historical norm for 1971-2000. There is a single pocket of drought in central-western Zinder and Northern Ouallam, western Keita and western Tanout are all showing large rainfall deficits. Despite the late start-of-season, grain crops did well thanks to the regular pattern of rainfall in August and September. The same is true of cash crops. Cowpea production, in particular, increased this year with large areas converted from millet due to the late start of the season. On the whole, plant health conditions have been relatively stable. A look at hydrologic conditions shows good runoff and high water levels in seasonal lakes and reservoirs, pointing to good conditions for the growing of off-season crops, as farmers step up their off-season farming activities. Since the end of September, there have been increasingly widespread harvests of standing crops (millet, sorghum, cowpeas, groundnuts, sesame, gumbo, etc.) in all parts of the country’s farm belt. Conditions in livestock-raising areas Figure 1: Progress and distribution of natural vegetation Integrated vegetation cover map for the 2006 pastoral season In general, the condition of pasturelands is satisfactory. However, there are reports of strips of pasture in fair condition in the Tanout department (in the vicinity of the livestock-raising centers of Tenhia, Tejira, Tesker and Yougoum) and in nearly all parts of the northern reaches of that department. Temporary lakes and ponds in the north have dried up, forcing animals to turn to the few year-round lakes and ponds and/or underground water sources in the region. Animals in transition and crop-growing areas are still being watered at seasonal lakes and ponds, whose water levels are high enough to meet their water requirements. However, as these water sources begin to dry up in rainfall deficit areas, this could trigger a deterioration in Source: DPA/PF/MRA (Crop Production Bureau / Pasture Production Unit / Ministry of Animal watering conditions for livestock in some Resources) localized areas. There are heavy concentrations of herders around major watering holes (year-round lakes and ponds, boreholes and wells), while some herders have begun to move their herds southwards (herds of Uda sheep in particular). 2 NIGER: FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION UPDATE NOVEMBER 2006 Production forecast and grain balance sheet Figure 2: Trends in gross grain production (2001-2006) for 2006-2007 5,000,000 Harvest forecasts put grain production at 4,059,123 MT, broken down as follows: 4,000,000 i.) Coarse grains : 3,972,000 MT 3,000,000 ii.) Rice: 78,100 MT iii.) Wheat: 9,000 MT Tons Metric 2,000,000 This record production level is up 11 percent from the 2005/2006 season and 24 percent above the five-year 1,000,000 average (3,285,000 MT) (Figure 2). Per capita production is projected at 303 kg, which is 0 7 percent above the figure for the 2005/2006 crop 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 Avg 01-05 year and the five-year average (2001-2005). Source: CILSS/AGRHYMET/FEWS NET Figure 3: Projected per capita grain production (in kg) for the This year, as part of efforts to establish the food 2006-2007 season balance sheet for Niger, the grain consumption standard was adjusted to 231 kg per person per year, 400 replacing the composite standard of 200 kg per person per year for city dwellers and nomads and 250 kg per person per year for sedentary rural inhabitants. 300 Based on this figure, nationwide grain needs were estimated at 3,251,000 MT, or 2,973,900 MT of coarse grains, 178,300 MT of rice and 98,800 MT of 200 wheat. Kilograms This puts available net production at 3,432,800 MT 100 (3,376,200 MT of coarse grains, 50,800 MT of rice and 5,800 MT of wheat). - 2 3 0 0 05 Available inventories as of October 31st of this year 004 0 007 /20 /20 2 2 1 2 1-2 06/ are calculated at 76,900 MT, consisting of 34,100 MT 0 0 200 200 2003/ 2004/2005 2005/2006 20 2 of on-farm reserves and 42,800 MT worth of trader inventories and government and other reserves. Source: CILSS/AGRHYMET/FEWS NET The import program calls for imports of 232,700 MT of grain, or 74,300 MT of coarse grains (mostly maize), 33,400 MT of wheat and 125,000 MT of rice. Projected total food availability is estimated at 3,742,400 MT. The grain balance sheet for 2006-2007 shows an overall net surplus of 491,400 MT, or net surpluses of rice (12,400 MT) and coarse grains (536,700 MT) set against a wheat deficit (of 57,700 MT) (Figure 2). The 2006-2007 season is also producing good harvests of cash crops in general and cowpeas in particular, which are an important source of income for rural households. The 2006-2007 cowpea harvest is estimated at 679,333 MT, up from 481,225 MT in 2005-06 and a mere 339,499 MT for the 2004-2005 season, which triggered Niger’s serious nutritional crisis. Thus, thanks to regular, evenly distributed rainfall in most areas, the current agropastoral season has engendered a crop and animal production surplus. This surplus production should help rebuild coarse grain reserves, which are still not back up to their optimal post-2005/06-harvest levels. In fact, the national food security reserves are at only 500 MT, compared with a target figure of 110,000 MT. 3 NIGER: FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION UPDATE NOVEMBER 2006 Conditions on grain and livestock markets Grain markets Figure 4: Trends in average monthly millet prices on major markets in Niger A look at grain markets shows an across-the- 20,000 board downswing in prices for all types of grain with the availability of fresh millet 18,000 crops. 16,000 14,000 In general, a review of market conditions shows grain 12,000 prices inching downwards. This downswing in prices 10,000 is attributable to adequate, regular market supplies 8,000 and to a fall-off in demand on markets in crop CFAF/100 Kg collection centers as well as on consumer markets. In 6,000 fact, in contrast to the 2005-2006 marketing season 4,000 which saw heavy demand from the national 2,000 government and various agencies and organizations, 0 a large part of this season’s grain crops are being July August September October November collected by regular local traders. Dosso Maradi Tahoua Zinder Tillabery Niamey On average, November prices for millet were down 6 Source: SIMA (Agricultural Market Information System) percent from October.