Understanding the Impact of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) on Property Values - a Case Study of Brisbane, Australia Min Zhang B.Sc., M.Sc. in Geographical Information Sciences A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at The University of Queensland in 2018 The School of Earth and Environmental Sciences Abstract Investment in public transportation is an essential solution to reduce car traffic and improve transport sustainability in a high-speed urbanised context. In an age of global fiscal restraint, the re-emergence of a bus-based transport mode, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), has generated great interest from urban planners and governments, since it provides high quality transit services, with less expenditure and flexibility advantages compared with other modes. On the other hand, researchers and practitioners have shown interest in the value BRT can add to urban real estate prices, since Land Value Capture (LVC) is increasingly seen as a potential way to finance transport projects. However, the extent to which the improved accessibility due to BRT can be capitalised into property values (and therefore underlying land value) remains controversial and has not been studied comprehensively. This research provides an enhanced understanding of BRT’s impact on property values, by drawing on the BRT system in Brisbane, Australia. This thesis documents the first meta-analysis of 23 empirical studies that estimate the amount of land value uplift (LVU) that is attributable to BRT. The results identified several factors that were found to have a statistically significant impact on estimated LVU from BRT investment, including the BRT system life cycle maturity, the geographical location, the type of research area (land or property), the reported value (sale /rental /assessor price), the distance to the BRT station and the method used for analysis. This research contributes to the literature by adding the evidence of BRT impact from the city with low density, high car ownership and limited variation in socio-economic status, as in the country context of Australia, using the South East Busway (SEB) in Brisbane, as a case study. The results show there is a positive effect of access to SEB stations, but a more substantial negative effect of immediate proximity to the SEB corridor. The area with the strongest value-added effect is approximately 1600m to the BRT corridor, which demonstrates the convenient feeder line services in the open-system SEB network and the Park-and-Ride i services available in BRT stations could contribute to a wider appreciation area of SEB accessibility. Few relevant studies in this field consider that a BRT operation mechanism could impact the capitalisation effect. To better understand BRT operation, this research employs a visual analytic approach to determine how Brisbane’s open- system BRT facilitates daily mobility, based on smartcard data. Web Graphics Library (WebGL) techniques are employed to produce 3D web maps that visualise the trajectories of all the BRT passengers, to provide an overview of catchment areas and passenger volumes. The results show that feeder line stops are important for increasing network accessibility for Brisbane’s open-system BRT. This validates that feeder line stops should be considered when examining the BRT property value impacts. A hypothesis is then formulated that the improved accessibility, due to an open- system BRT network, results in higher property values within feeder line catchment areas. Feeder line stops were selected and included as part of the open-system BRT, based on analysis of smartcard data. A Geographically Weighted Generalized Linear Model (GWGLM) was used to examine the property values impacts. The results identified property value uplift of up to 1.64% for every 100m closer to feeder bus stops with frequent services in western and eastern Brisbane suburbs, which confirms the hypothesis. This research contributes to the literature relating to the method of predicting property value uplift for future infrastructure. Although many LVU studies have been motivated by LVC implementation, current studies are less than helpful for practical LVC implementation as there is a knowledge gap in how to estimate the LVU prior to the transport project. This is important as a pre-investment reference to formulate LVC strategies. The prediction method proposed in this study has the potential for broader application in prediction of property value uplift from future infrastructure across other urban planning contexts. In summary, this research contributes to an understanding of the impact of BRT on property values and it is also significant in advancing the practice of LVC strategy for raising public transport funding through land and property value gains. ii Declaration by author This thesis is composed of my original work, and contains no material previously published or written by another person except where due reference has been made in the text. I have clearly stated the contribution by others to jointly-authored works that I have included in my thesis. I have clearly stated the contribution of others to my thesis as a whole, including statistical assistance, survey design, data analysis, significant technical procedures, professional editorial advice and any other original research work used or reported in my thesis. The content of my thesis is the result of work I have carried out since the commencement of my research higher degree candidature and does not include a substantial part of work that has been submitted to qualify for the award of any other degree or diploma in any university or other tertiary institution. I have clearly stated which parts of my thesis, if any, have been submitted to qualify for another award. I acknowledge that an electronic copy of my thesis must be lodged with the University Library and, subject to the policy and procedures of The University of Queensland, the thesis be made available for research and study in accordance with the Copyright Act 1968, unless a period of embargo has been approved by the Dean of the Graduate School. I acknowledge that copyright of all material contained in my thesis resides with the copyright holder(s) of that material. Where appropriate, I have obtained copyright permission from the copyright holder to reproduce material in this thesis. iii Publications included in this thesis This thesis includes one published conference proceeding, which has been incorporated as one core analytical chapter. The text has been retained to be consistent with the original form in publication. Contributions of all authors to the publications are indicated as follows: 1. Zhang, M., & Liu, Y. (2015, December). An exploratory analysis of Bus Rapid Transit on property values: A case study of Brisbane’s South East Busway. In State of Australian Cities National Conference, 2015, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia (incorporated as Chapter 5). Contributor Statement of contribution • Conceptual design (80%) Min Zhang (Candidate) • Data collection and analysis (100%) • Wrote the paper (90%) • Conceptual design (20%) Yan Liu • Wrote the paper (10%) Submitted manuscripts included in this thesis This thesis includes four manuscripts revised and submitted to Land Use Policy, Journal of Maps, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice and Transport Policy. These manuscripts have been incorporated in the thesis as the core analytical chapters. Contributions of all authors to the publications are indicated as follows. 2. Zhang, M., Yen, B.T., & Sipe, N. The impact of Bus rapid transit on land and property values: A meta-analysis. Land Use Policy (revised and submitted under the second round of review) (incorporated as Chapter 4). Contributor Statement of contribution • Conceptual design (80%) Min Zhang (Candidate) • Data collection and analysis (80%) • Wrote the paper (80%) • Conceptual design (10%) Barbara T.H. Yen • Data collection and analysis (10%) • Wrote the paper (10%) • Conceptual design (10%) Neil Sipe • Data collection and analysis (10%) • Wrote the paper (10%) 3. Zhang, M., Yen, B.T., Mulley, C., & Sipe, N. How does an open-system bus rapid transit (BRT) facilitate mobility? A visual analytic analysis of Brisbane, Australia. iv Journal of Maps (submitted under the first round of review) (incorporated as Chapter 6, Section 6.1). Contributor Statement of contribution • Conceptual design (70%) Min Zhang (Candidate) • Data collection and analysis (80%) • Wrote the paper (80%) • Conceptual design (15%) Barbara T.H. Yen • Data collection and analysis (10%) • Wrote the paper (10%) • Conceptual design (10%) Corinne Mulley • Data collection and analysis (5%) • Wrote the paper (5%) • Conceptual design (5%) Neil Sipe • Data collection and analysis (5%) • Wrote the paper (5%) 4. Zhang, M., Yen, B.T., Mulley, C., & Sipe, N. The impact of an open-system Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) network on property values: A Brisbane, Australia Case Study. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice (revised and submitted under the second round of review) (incorporated as Chapter 6, Section 6.2). Contributor Statement of contribution • Conceptual design (70%) Min Zhang (Candidate) • Data collection and analysis (70%) • Wrote the paper (70%) • Conceptual design (15%) Barbara T.H. Yen • Data collection and analysis (20%) • Wrote the paper (15%) • Conceptual design (5%) Corinne Mulley • Data collection and analysis (5%) • Wrote the paper (10%) • Conceptual design (10%) Neil Sipe • Data collection and analysis (5%) • Wrote the paper (5%)