2016-2017 Performance Progress Report Cooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystems Research (CILER) University of Michigan NA12OAR4320071 – Year Five Bradley J. Cardinale Director Thomas H. Johengen Associate Director Mary E. Ogdahl Program Manager G110 Dana Building 440 Church Street Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1041 734-763-3010 www.ciler.snre.umich.edu 1 Cooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystems Research – CILER Bradley J. Cardinale, Director Thomas H. Johengen, Associate Director Mary Ogdahl, Program Manager University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Michigan Annual Report for NA12OAR4320071 Year Five (12 months): July 1, 2016 – June 30, 2017 Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................................... 4 ADMINISTRATIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................... 7 EXECUTIVE BOARD, MANAGEMENT COUNCIL, AND COUNCIL OF FELLOWS ............................................................... 8 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................................................... 11 CILER’S VISION, MISSION, AND GOALS .................................................................................................................... 11 CILER ORGANIZATION .............................................................................................................................................. 12 FUNDING DISTRIBUTION.......................................................................................................................................... 13 ENGAGEMENT, CAREER TRAINING, AND OUTREACH & COMMUNICATIONS (ECO) PROGRAM ACTIVITIES .............. 20 Highlights (FY17) ..................................................................................................................................................... 21 2016 and 2017 Great Lakes Summer Student Fellows Program ............................................................................. 24 2016-2017 Graduate Research Fellowships ............................................................................................................ 29 Postdoctoral Fellowship Program ........................................................................................................................... 29 2015-2016 Great Lakes Seminar Series ................................................................................................................... 30 RESEARCH REPORTS BY THEME ............................................................................................................................... 32 THEME I: GREAT LAKES OBSERVING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS .............................................................................................. 32 Great Lakes Water Budget Uncertainty Assessment .............................................................................................. 32 Transitioning to Operations NOAA-Supported Statistical Hypoxia Models and Forecasts in the Gulf of Mexico and Chesapeake Bay ...................................................................................................................................................... 33 Evaluation of the Evaporation and Heat Flux Algorithms for the Great Lakes Based on Eddy Covariance Measurements ........................................................................................................................................................ 36 Assessment of Contaminated Sediment Transport in Manistique River, MI ........................................................... 39 How will the Great Lakes Water Levels Respond to Climate Change: Regional Modeling for Application to Decision-Making ..................................................................................................................................................... 42 High-resolution Atmospheric, Wave, Ice and Circulation Model Guidance System for the Great Lakes Region .... 44 2016 Implementation of the GLOS Buoy and Mobile Platform Observing Systems ................................................ 47 Lake Circulation and GLCFS: Can HRRR Meteorological Forcing Conditions be used to Improve Hydrodynamic Forecasting Skill? .................................................................................................................................................... 57 Integration of GLAHF with WRF-Hydro ................................................................................................................... 59 Data Management, Handling & Analysis of Great Lakes Time Series ..................................................................... 60 2 Modeling Sea Ice-ocean-ecosystem Changes, and Great Lakes Ice Modeling, Measurements, and Climate Changes ................................................................................................................................................................... 62 Great Lakes Heat Budget-Water Budget Connections ............................................................................................ 64 GLRI Nearshore: Circulation and Thermodynamics ................................................................................................. 66 Dynamical Core Implementation for the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) .............................. 68 Great Lakes CoastWatch Research Assistant for NOAA CoastWatch Program Element ........................................ 70 THEME II: INVASIVE SPECIES ............................................................................................................................................... 73 Impacts of Asian Carp on Great Lakes Food Webs and R2X Transition to USACE ................................................... 73 GLANSIS: Science and Management Support ......................................................................................................... 75 THEME III: ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT.......................................................................................................................... 77 MOCNESS in the Great Lakes: Gear Efficiency Comparisons and Estimates of Fine-Scale Vertical Spatial Structure of the Food Web ...................................................................................................................................................... 77 2016 Monitoring Activities for the Lake Michigan Long-term Ecological Research program ................................. 79 HABs Monitoring, Forecasting and Genomics for the Great Lakes ......................................................................... 83 THEME IV: PROTECTION AND RESTORATION OF ECOSYSTEM RESOURCES .................................................................................. 88 Development of a PostgreSQL Database for Accessible Research, Operations, and Communications of Real-time Harmful Algal Bloom Data ...................................................................................................................................... 88 A Metagenomic-Based Approach to Determine Microbial Pollution Sources in South Florida Coral Reefs ............ 90 Decision Support of Western Lake Erie Phosphorus Concentrations to Mitigate Harmful & Nuisance Algal Blooms ................................................................................................................................................................................ 92 FATE Proposal: Incorporating an Environmental Index into the Southern New England Mid-Atlantic Yellowtail Flounder Stock Assessment with Potential Predictability ....................................................................................... 96 2015 Lake Michigan Monitoring Activities for the Coordinated Science Monitoring Initiative .............................. 99 NOAA Regional Team Great Lakes Policy Support ................................................................................................ 104 2016 Synthesis, Observations, and Response (SOAR) ........................................................................................... 106 Empowering Communities with Online Action Planning Tools: Tipping Points and Indicators for Improving Water Quality across the Great Lakes.............................................................................................................................. 114 THEME V: EDUCATION AND OUTREACH ............................................................................................................................ 119 Global Interoperability Program (GIP) Introducing Shared Software Infrastructure into the Climate Model Curriculum ............................................................................................................................................................. 119 The 2016 Dynamical Core Model Intercomparison Project (DCMIP-2016) and Summer School .......................... 122 APPENDIX A: ENGAGEMENT, CAREER TRAINING, AND OUTREACH & COMMUNICATIONS (ECO ) PROGRAM ........ 126 APPENDIX B: GREAT LAKES SUMMER FELLOWSHIP RECRUITING PLAN .................................................................. 133 APPENDIX C: GRADUATE RESEARCH FELLOWSHIP FINAL REPORT – SARAH BARTLETT, UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN- MILWAUKEE .........................................................................................................................................................