Four Decades of Cross-Mediterranean Undocumented Migration to Europe A Review of the Evidence The opinions expressed in the report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Organization for Migration (IOM). The designations employed and the presentation of material throughout the report do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of IOM concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning its frontiers or boundaries. IOM is committed to the principle that humane and orderly migration benefits migrants and society. As an intergovernmental organization, IOM acts with its partners in the international community to: assist in meeting the operational challenges of migration; advance understanding of migration issues; encourage social and economic development through migration; and uphold the human dignity and well-being of migrants. ___________________________________ This material has been funded by UK Aid from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, the views expressed do not necessarily reflect the Government of the United Kingdom’s official policies. Publisher: International Organization for Migration 17 route des Morillons P. O. Box 17 1211 Geneva 19 Switzerland Tel.: + 41 22 717 91 11 Fax: + 41 22 798 61 50 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.iom.int © 2017 International Organization for Migration (IOM) Cover photo: The “boat cemetery” in Lampedusa where the boats used by the migrants are stored to be destroyed later. © IOM 2006 (Photo: Peter Schatzer) All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher. 79_17 Four Decades of Cross-Mediterranean Undocumented Migration to Europe A Review of the Evidence by Philippe Fargues (Professor at the European University Institute, Florence, Italy) Contents Executive summary ...............................................................................................................................1 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................................4 2. How much is known about trans-Mediterranean undocumented migration to Europe? ...........6 2.1. Flows ........................................................................................................................................6 2.2. Deaths at sea............................................................................................................................6 2.3. Characteristics of migrants .......................................................................................................7 3. Changing sea routes to Southern Europe ......................................................................................8 3.1. The western route ....................................................................................................................9 3.2. The central route................................................................................................................... 10 3.3. The eastern route.................................................................................................................. 11 4. Europe’s Mediterranean shore, the world’s most lethal border ................................................ 13 5. Seeking protection or employment? .......................................................................................... 15 6. Turkey and Libya are not the same ............................................................................................ 19 7. By way of conclusion: For a data collection and research agenda ............................................. 24 7.1. Collecting the experience of migrants ................................................................................. 24 7.2. Measuring the impact of measures taken by governments and non-governmental actors ............................................................................................... 25 7.3. Assessing the situation of migrants stranded in Turkey and Libya ........................................ 25 Appendices ........................................................................................................................................ 26 Four Decades of Cross-Mediterranean Undocumented Migration to Europe | A Review of the Evidence iii List of figures and tables Figure 1. Unauthorized entries by sea into Europe as recorded by police authorities, 1998–2017 ........................................................................................................................... 9 Figure 2. Monthly arrivals by sea in Greece from 1 January 2014 to 1 December 2015 – Top five nationalities ....................................................................................................... 12 Figure 3. Mortality at sea during the cross-Mediterranean journey to Europe (all routes combined), 1 January 2000–31 July 2017 ......................................................... 13 Figure 4. Arrivals by sea to Greece and Italy in 2009–2017, by likely status of the migrants ........... 16 Figure 5. Top 10 origin of migrants arriving in Greece and Italy by sea, 2009–2017 (between brackets: positive decisions on asylum, %) ........................................................ 17 Figure 6. Arrivals by sea to Greece and Italy by region of origin, 2009–2017 ................................... 22 Table 1. Estimated proportion of refugees among migrants arrived by sea in Greece and Italy, 2009–2017 .......................................................................................................... 15 Table 2. Reasons for leaving the country of origin provided by migrants arrived by sea in Italy, 2016 ....................................................................................................................... 18 Table 3. Numbers of migrants entered by sea with no visa compared with numbers of migrants refused entry at the external border (land and air) by nationality, 2009–2016 ......................................................................................................................... 18 Table 4. Syrian nationals smuggled by sea and granted asylum once in Europe between April 2011 and the European Union–Turkey statement of March 2016 ............................ 20 Table 5. Distribution by nationality of foreign population in Libya and migrants smuggled by sea from Libya to Italy ................................................................................... 21 Table 6. Distribution by nationality of migrants arrived by sea in Greece and Italy and first permits issued in the European Union, 2009–2016 ............................................. 23 Table A.1. Unauthorized entries by sea into Europe as recorded by police authorities, 1998–2017 ......................................................................................................................... 26 Table A.2. Monthly arrivals by sea in Greece from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2015 – Top five nationalities ....................................................................................................... 27 Table A.3. Mortality at sea during the cross-Mediterranean journey to Europe (all routes combined), 2000–2017 ..................................................................................... 28 Table A.4. Arrivals at sea by country or territory of origin, 1 January 2009–30 June 2017 ................ 29 Table A.5. Percentage of positive decision on asylum claims by nationality, 2008–2016 ................... 37 Table A.6. Top ten places of origin of migrants arrived by sea in Greece and Italy and estimated proportion of refugees 2009–2017 ............................................................ 38 iv Four Decades of Cross-Mediterranean Undocumented Migration to Europe | A Review of the Evidence Executive summary The report reviews available evidence on trans-Mediterranean irregular migration to Europe along various routes going back to the 1970s, particularly on the magnitude of the flows, the evolution of sea routes to Southern Europe, the characteristics of migrants, the extent to which one can separate between economic and forced movements, and mortality during the sea journey. The report also reflects on the causes of the so-called migration crisis – a record-high number of undocumented arrivals by sea between 2014 and 2016 – and the reasons for the substantial decrease in numbers in 2017. It concludes by identifying future data and research needs. More than 2.5 million migrants have crossed the Mediterranean in an unauthorized fashion since the 1970s. Irregular sea journeys started rising in those years in response to the introduction of visa requirements for people who until then had been exempted – most of them temporary labour migrants from North Africa and Turkey – by Western States grappling with rising levels of unemployment during the 1973 oil crisis. Such policies: (a) encouraged those who were already in Europe to stay permanently; (b) increased regular migration to Europe of their family members; and (c) marked the beginning of irregular (labour) migration to Europe and the smuggling business. Irregular migration by sea to Europe has occurred along three main routes, which have evolved in response to policy measures aimed