E3S Web of Conferences 235, 01016 (2021) https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202123501016 NETID 2020 The Effect of Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway on the Economic Development of Prefecture-Level Cities Along the Line Based on DID Model Ma Yuzhou1 1School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, China Abstract. High-speed railway has an essential impact on the economic and social development of the regions along the line. Based on the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway, this paper constructs the DID model and analyzes the impact of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway on the economic development of prefecture-level cities along the route from the empirical perspective. The empirical analysis results show that the Beijing- Shanghai high-speed railway has a significant negative impact on the per capita GDP of prefecture-level cities along the line in the short term, mainly because the agglomeration effect is greater than the diffusion effect. Therefore, small cities should actively think about how to deal with the agglomeration effect caused by the construction of high-speed rail. billion yuan. The line is a project with the most massive 1 Introduction scale and highest technique since the founding of China. The BSHSR, which owns faster speed, fewer stops, and Since the opening of Beijing-Tianjin intercity high-speed more running trains, adds a vital passenger transport railway in 2008, China's high-speed railway (abbreviated channel for the eastern region. BSHSR improves the to “HSR”, for short) has stepped into a rapid expansion transportation capacity of Beijing-Shanghai line, meets stage, and the "four vertical and four horizontal" HSR the ever-growing travel demand of passengers, and network planned and constructed by the state has taken strengthens the connection between the two urban clusters shape. The medium- and long-term railway network of "Beijing Tianjin Hebei" and "Yangtze River Delta." planning (2016-2025) issued in 2016 further elaborated Meanwhile, the open of BSHSR relieves the pressure and the requirements in the new HSR era in order to meet the eases the tension of the passenger transport capacity for exceeding fast increase of passenger transport demand and the existing Beijing-Shanghai railway. It is also conducive expand the regional development space. Eventually form to the transfer of advantage industries from the eastern a “eight vertical and eight horizontal” HSR network based regions to the central and western regions, the radiation of on “four vertical and four horizontal” HSR network, economic advantages in the eastern region to the whole linked by regional connection line and supplemented by country, and the revitalization of the national economy. the intercity railway. Regardless of the technical level, construction scale or operation mileage, China's HSR is far ahead of other countries, leading the new development of the HSR in the world. HSR has become a business card of China image and transportation technology innovation, promoting the flow of people, goods and information among cities along the line, strengthening regional cooperation, and also driving the academic research passion on HSR. Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway (abbreviated to “BSHSR”, for short) is the "second vertical" in the "eight vertical and eight horizontal" network. It starts from Beijing and ends in Shanghai with 24 stations, spanning Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong, Anhui, Jiangsu and Shanghai, three municipalities directly under the central government and four provinces. Fig. 1 shows the line. BSHSR officially opened to traffic on June 30, 2011. Its Fig1. Route Map of BSHSR total length is 1318 kilometers, running velocity is 300 kilometers per hour, and total investment excesses 220.94 [email protected] © The Authors, published by EDP Sciences. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). E3S Web of Conferences 235, 01016 (2021) https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202123501016 NETID 2020 2 Literature Review [5]. Using the 2006-2010 data of the 287 cities in China and the DID estimation method, Wang and Nian (2014) There is no unified view on the effect of the HSR on test what influence can HSR bring to the regional economy. regional economic growth along the line, and it can be The results show that HSR do not act the leading role in positive or negative. Scholars at home and abroad mainly promoting regional economic growth in a short time in the hold two views. One view is that the effect is positive. The context of the Chinese economy slows down recently [6]. HSR can improve accessibility, compress space-time Using the 2001-2012 panel data of prefecture-level city distance, eliminate communication barriers, promote the and two-way fixed effect model, Zhang and Tao (2016) flow of elements, and eventually realize economic growth. confirmed the existence of the agglomeration effect of Ahlfeldt and Feddersen (2010) took the HSR from HSR. Moreover, the opening of HSR reduces the Cologne to Frankfurt as the work subject and researched economic growth rate of prefecture-level cities along the its influence on the economy in terms of economic line by agglomeration effect and squeezing fixed asset geography. By driving economic agents nearer and investment, and the nearer the small cities are to the improving accessibility, HSR can promote regional regional central cities, the more negative impact it has [7]. economic growth. Countryside adjacent to Limburg and Wang, Meng, and Hou (2020) obtain a finding by Montabaur, two intermediate stops, experienced a 2.7% acquiring “night lighting data” as their critical economic level lift in GDP after the construction of Cologne- indicators and the PSM-DID method, which is that HSR Frankfurt HSR because of the exogenous variation of fails to promote the economic growth of cities along HSR accessibility. The economic growth elasticity of market in the short term, but accelerated the economic diffusion accessibility is 0.25, and this effect prolongs in the long in the long term [8]. term [1]. Fang and Sun (2016) research the Yangtze River Delta Urban Cluster, using the data of cities at prefecture- level and DID method. They conclude that in the short 3 Research Methods and Data Sources term, the HSR can promote the economic growth of the Yangtze River Delta Urban Cluster, but it can expand the 3.1 Difference in Difference urban-rural disparity to a certain extent [2]. Jia, Zhou, and Qin (2017) adopt DID and PSM-DID methods to study the One of the challenges to studying the impact of HSR on economic impact of the HSR under the hypothesis of non- regional economic growth is the endogenous problem homogeneous space. The results show that HSR can caused by the reverse causality between the opening of promote economic growth and reshape the structure of HSR and regional economy. As a strategic plan at the China's economy in space level. However, the HSR effect national level, HSR is mainly connected with regional verifies in different lines [3]. Li, Fan, and Zhang (2020) central cities, forming a crisscross HSR network. For the analyze the spatial spillover effect of HSR on the real non-regional central cities along the line, whether to open economy in four districts of China by establishing a HSR mainly depends on whether its location is on the dynamic spatial Durbin model. The empirical results connection between the central cities. Therefore, the cities' demonstrated the following: due to the structural economic growth along the line is not the immediate cause imbalance between the real economy and virtual economy, to determine whether the HSR passes through the city. We the spatial spillover effect in the eastern district is low. select the cities along the BSHSR as the research objects, However, HSR possesses a long-range real economy which largely avoids the endogenous problems caused by promotion effect for the provinces along the railway; we the reverse causality. can spot the sustained effect in the northeast district; while The implementation of a project will affect some there is no noticeable effect in the western district at the groups in the society, while the other groups may not be early stage due to resource constraints [4]. affected, or the impact is limited, so the implementation of The other view is that the HSR fails to promote the this project can be analogous to some treatment imposed economy in the alongside cities. Because of the on the subjects in natural science experiments. The characteristics of the enormous cost and long payback double-difference method often uses for the quantitative period, HSR increases the risk of local government evaluation of the effect of public projects or policies, missing the development opportunities of other industries which can divide into different groups, and the evaluation and overdrafts the regional potential. Although the HSR results have explanatory power and robustness. An HSR can increase the accessibility and competitive advantages project is a public project. Its implementation will in the underdeveloped region to some extent, the industrial inevitably have an impact on regional economic agglomeration and economic growth brought by the HSR development, and the impact varies in different regions. in developed areas may be more significant, which will The DID model can use for our analysis. Equation (1) maintain or even expand the regional disparity. In the shows the basic DID model established in this paper: study of the network development of French TGV, Yit β0β1groupi β2periodt β3groupiperiodt Germany ICE, Italy direttissima, and Spain AVE, β4Xitεit 1 Vickerman (1997) deem that different access points gain In this model, Yit represents the economic indicators of different accessibility on the network of HSR depending the prefecture-level city i in the period t; i represents every on their position.