Base Year Conditions Report Introduction The Winston-Salem Urbanized Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (WSUAMPO) is the federally designated agency that serves as the cooperative decision-making body for regional transportation planning in the Winston-Salem Urbanized Area and produces the Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP). Federal legislation requires urbanized areas with populations greater than 50,000 to have a Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPO) to carry out the transportation planning process among the member jurisdictions within its established planning area boundary. Further, as an urbanized area with population over 200,000, (391,024 urbanized area population as of 2010 U.S. Census data1) Winston-Salem Urbanized Area MPO also serves as a Transportation Management Area (TMA). As a TMA, the region receives access to a set-aside of federal transportation funding (STBG-DA) and is subject to additional federal transportation planning requirements applicable to MPOs over 200,000 in population, including congestion management process. In partnership with the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT), and area transit providers, the Winston-Salem Urban Area MPO provides transportation planning for the member jurisdictions which include Davidson, Davie, Forsyth, and Stokes Counties and the following municipalities. The planning area and member jurisdictions are shown in Figure 1 below: • City of Winston-Salem • Town of Lewisville • Town of Midway • Town of Walkertown • Town of Rural Hall • Town of Bermuda Run • Town of Bethania • Village of Clemmons • Town of Kernersville • Town of Wallburg • Village of Tobaccoville 1 2010 Population for Winston-Salem Urbanized Area as reported by U.S. Census at https://data.census.gov/ (2010 Dec Summary File 1) Making Connections 2045 Base Year Conditions Report 1 In addition to elected representatives from those jurisdictions, non-elected officials from the City-County Planning Board, Winston-Salem Transit Authority, Smith Reynolds Airport Authority, FHWA, and NCDOT serve on the Transportation Advisory Committee (TAC) for WSUAMPO. The TAC serves as a forum for cooperative regional transportation planning and decision-making for the MPO. Figure 1: Winston-Salem Urban Area Metropolitan Planning Organization Planning Area Making Connections 2045 Base Year Conditions Report 2 The Winston-Salem Urbanized Area MPO Planning Area population was estimated at 429,277 in 2017. The Winston-Salem urban area is one of three major subregions in the Piedmont Triad, situated between Charlotte and the Research Triangle. The MPO is connected to other major regions in the state and beyond by major north-south routes, including I-85 and I-74/US 52, and major east-west routes, including I-40 and US 421. Norfolk Southern operates freight trains on the rail corridor through the region. There is no Amtrak passenger train station in the MPO, though the Piedmont Authority for Regional Transportation (PART) provides free bus service from the High Point station to the Clark Campbell Transportation Center in Winston Salem for Amtrak Piedmont route riders. Image Left: Z. Smith Reynolds Airport, Right: Union Station, former passenger rail station. The nearest large commercial airport, Piedmont Triad International Airport, is just east of the MPO boundary in Guilford County. The airport serves over 1.7 million passengers annually and moves the most air freight cargo in the state, more than 300,000 tons annually. Forsyth County also hosts a local general aviation airport, Smith Reynolds Airport, which has a 6,655-foot primary runway and serves over 45,000 operations (take-offs and landings) per year. The airport does not currently have commercial carriers, but it maintains a Class I certificate which allows all types of air carrier operations. Figure 2 lays out employment by industry in Forsyth County while Table 1 lists the county’s top ten employers. Each of the top five employers in Forsyth County is a medical or educational provider: Wake Forest Baptist Medical Center, Novant Health, Forsyth Memorial Hospital, Winston Salem/Forsyth County Schools, and Wake Forest University. The major educational and medical institutions are mapped in Figure 3 below. While the region has moved away from historic major employers in the tobacco, textile, and furniture industries, both Hanesbrands and the R J Reynolds Tobacco Company are still among the county’s top twenty employers. Similarly, Ashley Furniture is currently the largest employer in Davie County. Other major employers include city and county governments, banks, and major retailers like Walmart and Food Lion. Figure 2: Employment by Industry in Forsyth County, Source: Labor & Economic Analysis Division, NC Department of Commerce, 2019 Rank Company Name Industry Wake Forest University Baptist 1 Education & Health Services Medical Center Winston Salem Forsyth County 2 Education & Health Services Schools 3 Forsyth Memorial Hospital, Inc Education & Health Services 4 Novant Health, Inc Education & Health Services 5 Wake Forest University Education & Health Services 6 City of Winston Salem Public Administration 7 Hanesbrands, Inc Manufacturing 8 Wal-Mart Associates Inc. Trade, Transportation, & Utilities 9 Forsyth County Public Administration 10 Wells Fargo Bank Financial Activities Table 1: Major Employers in Forsyth County, Source: Labor & Economic Analysis Division, NC Department of Commerce, 2019 Making Connections 2045 Base Year Conditions Report 4 Figure 3: College and Medical Campuses Making Connections 2045 Base Year Conditions Report 5 The region’s transitioning economy is embodied in the emergence of the Innovation Quarter, much of which is housed in redeveloped RJ Reynolds Tobacco Co warehouses. The Innovation Quarter, originally envisioned as the Piedmont Triad Research Park, is a mixed-use district adjacent to downtown Winston- Salem. It currently hosts over 90 companies in 2.1 million square feet of office, lab, and academic space, as well as multi-family housing, retail, and open space. Whitaker Park, a former Reynolds America manufacturing complex in northern Winston-Salem, is another major redevelopment opportunity. Current plans are for the space to ultimately be a mixed-use employment center with lab, manufacturing, and office space, residential units, and retail space. A new development in Whitaker Park was announced in late 2019, it will include a 300-unit apartment complex, hotel, and retail space. Image Left: Aerial of Innovation Quarter, Right: Gathering at Bailey Park in Innovation Quarter. As seen in Figure 4, Forsyth County has a higher postsecondary educational attainment than the Piedmont Triad region2 and the state.3 The difference is higher for those who have obtained a Bachelor’s degree or higher; 34% of Forsyth County has at least a Bachelor’s degree while only 25% of the Piedmont Triad region does. This higher educational attainment is reflected in the median household and per capita income of the county (Figure 5). Forsyth county has significantly higher household income, at about $50,000, than the Triad region at closer to $43,000, though household incomes are slightly below North Carolina as a whole. Per capita incomes follow a similar pattern. 2 Triad Tomorrow, Piedmont Triad Regional Council, 2017 3 US Census Bureau, 2013-2017 & 2011-2015 American Community Survey 5-year estimates Making Connections 2045 Base Year Conditions Report 6 Figure 4: Educational Attainment in the region, 2013-2017 & 2011-2015 American Community Survey 5-year estimates Triad Tomorrow, Piedmont Triad Regional Council Figure 5: Median Household and Per Capita Income, Source: 2013-2017 & 2011-2015 American Community Survey 5-year estimates Triad Tomorrow, Piedmont Triad Regional Council The Winston-Salem urban area serves a dual role as an employment hub for smaller neighboring communities and rural areas and as a midpoint for workers commuting to Charlotte, Greensboro, or the Research Triangle. In 2017, 57% of WSUAMPO residents were living and working in the MPO area, while 43% were commuting to jobs outside (Figures 6 and 7). In the same year, more workers living outside the MPO commuted in for work (92, 841) than workers living in the MPO commuted out (80,026), highlighting the MPO’s role as an economic center. Residents commuting outside the MPO area were divided among neighboring regions as follows: • 15% travel to Greensboro for work • 6% travel to the Research Triangle for work • About 8% travel to Charlotte for work Making Connections 2045 Base Year Conditions Report 7 Figure 6: Inflow and Outflow Commuting Patterns for Winston Salem Urban Area MPO, 2017, Source: Census on the Map, U.S. Census. Figure 7: Inflow and Outflow Commuting Patterns for Winston Salem Urban Area MPO, 2017, Source: Census on the Map, U.S. Census. Making Connections 2045 Base Year Conditions Report 8 Future Population and Employment Distribution Future population and employment projections out to 2045 were derived from the PART Regional Travel Demand Model (PTRM) and socioeconomic figures adopted in September 2019. The Winston-Salem MPO population is expected to grow from 429,277 in 2017 to 544,670 in 2045—an almost 27% increase. The number of jobs is expected to outpace population growth, almost doubling from 209,365 in 2017 to 379,915 in 2045. Population and Employment Forecast 2017 - 2045 600,000 400,000 Count 200,000 - 2017 2025 2035 2045 Forecast Year Population Employment Figure 8 shows population growth trends