ARAB CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT REPORT MAIN REPORT Regional Initiative for the Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Socio-Economic Vulnerability in the Arab Region ARAB CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT REPORT MAIN REPORT Regional Initiative for the Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Socio-Economic Vulnerability in the Arab Region RICCAR PARTNERS DONORS ARAB CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT REPORT - MAIN REPORT Copyright © 2017 By the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA). All rights reserved under International Copyright Conventions. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without prior permission in writing from the publisher. Inquiries should be addressed to the Sustainable Development Policies Division, Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia, P.O. Box 11-8575, Beirut, Lebanon. Email: [email protected] Website: www.escwa.un.org Available through: United Nations Publication E/ESCWA/SDPD/2017/RICCAR/Report Reference as: United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) et al. 2017. Arab Climate Change Assessment Report – Main Report. Beirut, E/ESCWA/SDPD/2017/RICCAR/Report. Authors: United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) Arab Center for the Studies of Arid Zones and Dry Lands (ACSAD) of the League of Arab States Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH (GIZ) League of Arab States Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) United Nations Environment Programme (UN Environment) United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) Office in Cairo United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH) World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The opinions expressed in this technical material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations Member States, the Government of Sweden, the Government of the Federal Republic of Germany, the League of Arab States or the United Nations Secretariat. Cover photo © Kertu – Fotolia.com #131675281 Layout: Ghazal Lababidi Marilynn Dagher 2 PREFACE The Regional Initiative for the Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Socio-Economic Vulnerability in the Arab Region (RICCAR) is a joint initiative of the United Nations and the League of Arab States launched in 2010. RICCAR is implemented through a collaborative partnership involving 11 regional and specialized organizations, namely the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA), Arab Center for the Studies of Arid Zones and Dry Lands (ACSAD), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), League of Arab States, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), United Nations Environment Programme (UN Environment), United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) Office in Cairo, United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH), and World Meteorological Organization (WMO). ESCWA coordinates the regional initiative. Funding for RICCAR is provided by the Government of Sweden and the Government of the Federal Republic of Germany. RICCAR is implemented under the auspices of the Arab Ministerial Water Council and derives its mandate from resolutions adopted by this council as well as the Council of Arab Ministers Responsible for the Environment, the Arab Permanent Committee for Meteorology and the 25th ESCWA Ministerial Session. Funding for the preparation of this report and its technical annex was provided by the Swedish Government through the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency. 3 ARAB CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT REPORT - MAIN REPORT CONTENTS PART I. IMPACT ASSESSMENT PREFACE 3 FOREWORD 19 CHAPTER 1 CONTRIBUTORS AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 20 PURSUING REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELLING AND HYDROLOGICAL MODELLING IN THE ARAB REGION 67 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS 22 1.1 Global climate modelling 67 1.1.1 Reference and projection periods 68 OVERVIEW 1.1.2 Representative concentration pathways 68 1.2 Regional climate modelling 69 BACKGROUND 29 1.2.1 The Arab Domain 70 1.2.2 Regional climate modelling projections 72 1 Mandates and partnerships 30 1.3 Regional hydrological modelling 73 2 Objectives 31 1.3.1 Bias correction for hydrological modelling 73 3 Implementation framework 31 1.3.2 Hydrological models applied 74 1.4 Explanation of analysis and presentation of results 76 OVERVIEW 33 1.4.1 Ensemble analysis 76 1 Integrated assessment methodology 33 1.4.2 Regional climate modelling outputs 76 1.4.3 Regional hydrological modelling outputs 76 2 Structure of the report 34 1.4.4 Extreme event indices 78 1.4.5 Seasonal outputs 80 1.4.6 Subdomains 80 BASELINE INFORMATION AND DATASETS 35 Endnotes 82 1 Climate characteristics of the Arab region 35 References 83 1.1 Climate zones and features 35 1.2 Atmospheric patterns affecting climate variability 36 1.3 Extreme events and climate related hazards 37 2 Climate diagnostics 39 CHAPTER 2 2.1 Global observed climate trends 39 2.2 Regional climate observations 40 REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELLING RESULTS FOR THE ARAB DOMAIN AND SELECTED SUBDOMAINS 87 3 Climate indices and data sources 43 3.1 Essential climate variables 43 2.1 Projected change in climate across the 3.2 Extreme event Indices 43 Arab Domain 87 3.3 Meteorological data sources 45 2.1.1 Change in temperature 87 3.4 Water resources in the Arab region 47 2.1.2 Change in precipitation 88 2.1.3 Changes in extreme temperature indices 92 4 Topographic and terrestrial features and 2.1.4 Changes in extreme precipitation indices 94 data sources 49 4.1 Topographical features of the Arab region 49 2.2 Comparative analysis with other regional 4.2 Topographic and other terrestrial data sources 52 climate modelling assessments 97 2.2.1 IPCC AR5 findings relating to Arab States 97 5 Socio-economic data sources 53 2.2.2 Findings from other corresponding climate 5.1 Demographic datasets 53 projections 98 5.2 Economic datasets 53 5.3 Technology-related datasets 53 2.2.3 Findings from CORDEX MENA compared to 5.4 Equity-related datasets 53 CORDEX AFRICA 99 6 Disaster loss databases 53 2.3 Projected change in climate in the Moroccan 6.1 Main findings from disaster loss databases Highlands 105 in selected Arab States 54 2.4 Projected change in climate along the 6.2 Using historical disaster data for climate Mediterranean Coast 105 change analysis 55 Endnotes 108 Endnotes 56 References 109 References 58 4 CHAPTER 3 REGIONAL HYDROLOGICAL MODELLING RESULTS FOR 5.1.2 Drought events 154 THE ARAB REGION AND SELECTED SUBDOMAINS 113 5.1.3 Extreme flood events 154 3.1 Projected changes in water availability due to 5.2 Nahr el Kabir River basin – Lebanon/ climate change in the Arab region 113 Syrian Arab Republic 155 3.1.1 Changes in runoff 113 5.2.1 Extreme temperature and precipitation 155 3.1.2 Changes in evapotranspiration 113 5.2.2 Drought events 157 3.2 Moroccan Highlands 118 5.2.3 Extreme flood events 158 3.3 Mediterranean Coast 119 5.3 Wadi Diqah River basin 159 5.3.1 Extreme temperature and precipitation 159 Endnotes 120 5.3.2 Drought events 161 References 120 5.3.3 Extreme flood events 162 5.4 Medjerda River basin 163 5.4.1 Extreme temperature and precipitation 163 5.4.2 Drought events 165 CHAPTER 4 5.4.3 Extreme flood events 167 FINDINGS FOR SELECTED SHARED WATER BASINS 5.5 Summary of key findings 167 IN THE ARAB REGION 121 Endnotes 168 4.1 Nile River basin 122 References 168 4.1.1 Overview and subdomain selection 122 4.1.2 Vulnerable sectors 122 4.1.3 Regional climate modelling findings 123 4.1.4 Regional hydrological modelling findings 125 CHAPTER 6 4.2 Tigris River and Euphrates River basins 126 4.2.1 Overview and subdomain selection 126 IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE 4.2.2 Vulnerable sectors 126 AGRICULTURAL SECTOR 169 4.2.3 Regional climate modelling findings 128 6.1 Impact on cropping systems 170 4.2.4 Regional hydrological modelling findings 131 6.2 Impact on livestock systems 173 4.3 Medjerda River basin 133 6.3 Impact on fisheries and aquaculture 173 4.3.1 Overview and subdomain selection 133 4.3.2 Vulnerable sectors 133 6.4 Impact on forestry 173 4.3.3 Regional climate modelling findings 134 6.5 Impact on selected crops in Egypt, 4.3.4 Regional hydrological modelling findings 136 Lebanon and Jordan 175 4.4 Jordan River basin 137 6.6 Conclusion 178 4.4.1 Overview and subdomain selection 137 Endnotes 180 4.4.2 Vulnerable sectors 137 References 180 4.4.3 Regional climate modelling findings 139 4.4.4 Regional hydrological modelling findings 141 4.5 Senegal River basin 142 4.5.1 Overview and subdomain selection 142 CHAPTER 7 4.5.2 Vulnerable sectors 142 4.5.3 Regional climate modelling findings 144 IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HUMAN HEALTH IN 4.5.4 Regional hydrological modelling findings 144 SELECTED AREAS 181 Endnotes 147 7.1 Heat index considerations and findings 182 References 148 7.2 Case studies of neglected tropical diseases 183 7.2.1 Conceptual framework 183 7.2.2 Leishmaniasis 184 7.2.3 Schistosomiasis 185 CHAPTER 5 7.2.4 Implications and conclusions 187 7.2.5 Limitations 188 EXTREME EVENTS IMPACT ASSESSMENT FOR SELECTED BASINS 153 Endnotes 190 References 191 5.1 Indicators and events selected for analysis 154 5.1.1 Extreme temperature and precipitation 154 5 ARAB CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT REPORT - MAIN REPORT PART II.