Friday, May 17, 2019 Tranquilo: Provincial status quo Photo by Casa Rosada The May 12 reelection of moderate Peronist Juan Schiaretti in Córdoba was predictable, but his margin of victory exceeded expectations. Córdoba, once fertile ground for Radicalism and Cambiemos, decisively voted for moderate Peronists at the provincial and municipal level. Córdoba’s capital city, for example, will be governed by a Peronist for the first time since the 1980s. The results are regarded as a warning sign for President Mauricio Macri, whose party’s electoral fortunes have dimmed with the economic crisis. But the election in Córdoba – Argentina’s second-largest province – also had little good news for Mr. Macri’s rival, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. To avoid an embarrassment, she pulled her candidate from the race. That said, so far there appears to be little connection between the provincial elections and the national presidential contest. Polls place Mr. Macri and Ms. Fernández de Kirchner neck- and-neck, even as neither Cambiemos nor the kirchneristas have proved competitive at the provincial level. This year, provincial elections have shown voters are largely satisfied with their local leaders. In Neuquén, Río Negro and Córdoba, the incumbent party retained the governorship, and increased its vote share. This trend is expected to continue; most provincial governments enjoy a large primary fiscal balance, giving governors resources to increase election year spending to goose the local economy. In Mendoza, the term-limited governor, Alfredo Cornejo, is likely to see his heir apparent, Radical Mayor Rodolfo Suárez, succeed him. And in San Juan, moderate Peronist Sergio Uñac is coasting to a second term. Though the results might not be energizing to Cambiemos leadership and Ms. Fernández de Kirchner, the reelection of moderates is helpful to Argentina. In Neuquén, for example, the failure of the kirchnerista candidate reassured investors that policies in Vaca Muerta would not radically change – and no doubt comforted the government that it would have a reliable partner on energy policy in a region with sizable oil and gas reserves. Mr. Schiaretti’s win in Córdoba was also a positive sign for governability, should Mr. Macri or a moderate Peronist win the presidency. Asked about the possibility of negotiating with Mr. Macri, Mr. Schiaretti said, “Si me llama el presidente, voy a ir, soy un hombre de diálogo.” He added: “Somos plurales, y los que creemos en los consensus.” The dynamics could still shift, however, should Buenos Aires Province – home to 40 percent of the country’s population – fall into kirchnerista hands. The governor, María Eugenia Vidal, is Argentina’s most popular politician, and has seen her name floated as a potential presidential candidate (a contingency option known as “Plan V”). But her reelection is not guaranteed. Under pressure from Mr. Macri’s team, she opted not to decouple her reelection from the October national contest, as Mr. Macri hopes to benefit from her coattails. As a result, she will bear the weight of Mr. Macri’s low approval ratings as she battles a likely tough competitor, perhaps former Finance Minister Axel Kicillof, a close adviser to Ms. Fernández de Kirchner. Either way, should Ms. Fernández de Kirchner return to the presidency, the federal government’s relations with the provinces would likely deteriorate. In her administration, her centralizing tendencies and penchant for using public funds to reward or punish provinces alienated governments. But if either Mr. Macri or a centrist, such as former Finance Minister Roberto Lavagna, ends up in the Casa Rosada, relations between the president and provincial leaders would start on a strong foundation. Seeking fall research assistants Know anyone interested in a research assistant position at the Argentina Project for the fall? They should apply now before skipping town for the summer! We’re also looking for a producer for the Argentina Project podcast. Tweet: Tweet For more Argentina insights, and to keep up with Argentina Project events, follow us on Twitter (@ArgentinaProj), where we also highlight our publications and activities – such as our forum for Argentine presidential candidates and kingmakers, including conversations with San Juan Province Governor Sergio Uñac and José Luis Espert – and announce new podcast episodes. For more election coverage, visit our Argentina Elige election Web site. Please donate here (select “Latin American Program” under “designation”). For additional benefits – including the Argentina Project Quarterly Briefing and invitations to special receptions – please contact us about corporate membership. 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