The IEi#arris Pvll THE HARRIS POLL 1996 #42 Wednesday, July 17, 1996 CLINTON'S LEAD OVER DOLE NOW TWENTY-TWO PERCENT AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS COMPARED TO SEVENTEEN PERCENT A MONTH EARLIER by Humphrey Taylor Republican candidate Bob Dole is making absolutely no impression on President Clinton's big poll lead. In the latest Harris Poll, the president's lead is actually wider than it was a month earlier. In mid-June, the president enjoyed a 17- point lead among registered voters; 'the latest poll shows him 22 points ahead. 'These are the results of Harris Poll of 1,005 adults, including 871 people who claim to be registered voters, surveyed between July 9 and 13. There are several different ways of analyzing the results from this new Harris Poll: When the analysis is lirr~itedto registered voters who claim to have voted in 1992, the president's lead widens to 24 points. When those who say they don't expect to vote are eliminated, the president's lead widens to 27 points among all adults and 25 points among registered voters. When Ross Perot is included as a third party candidate he wins the support of 16 percent, after eliminating those who say they would not vote. This number is essentially unchanged since the May and June Harris Polls. Louis Harris and Associates, Inc. 11 1 Fifth Avenue NYC (21 2) 539-9600 i Perot takes votes almost equally from Clinton and Dole, and leaves the president's lead virtually unchanged. When possible Independent party candidate Richard Lamm is included as the third candidate instead of Perot he gets the support of five percent, approximately one-third of Ross Perot's current support. Almost three- quarters (74%) of the public say they are not familiar with the former governor. Yogi Berra's old adage is that elections, like baseball, "ain't over" till they are over. But the uphill struggle Bob Dole now faces looks very, very steep. Humphrey Taylor is the Chairman and CEO of Louis Harris and Associates, lnc. TABLE 1 HORSE RACE -- CI-INTON VS. DOLE "If the presidential election were held today, who would you most likely vote for -- Bill Clinton for the Democrats or Bob Dole for the Republicans?" IF "NOT SLIRE" Well, if you had to say would you lean toward Bill Clinton or Bob Dole?" Registered to Vote Total Registered & Voted (All Adults) &!JQk in 1992 Oh % % Bill Clinton Bob Dole Would not vote Another candidate (vol.) Not sure Clinton's lead 2 2 2 2 2 4 NOTE: A month earlier Clinton's lead was 18 percent among all adults, 17% among registered voters. TABLE 2 HORSE RACE -- CLINTON VS. DOLE -- TREND Base: All Adults "If the presidential election were held today, who would you most likely vote for -- Bill Clinton for the Democrats or Bob Dole for the Republicans?" IF "NOT SURE" "Well, if you had to say would you lean toward Bill Clinton or Bob Dole?" Mav June Bill Clinton Bob Dole Would not vote Another candidate (vol.) Not sure Clinton's lead over Dole TABLE 3 HORSE RACE -- CLINTON VS. DOLE WITHOUT WOULD NOT VOTE TREND Base: All Adults "If the presidential election were held today, who would you most likely vote for -- Bill Clinton for the Democrats or Bob Dole for the Republicans" IF "NOT SURE" 'Well, if you had to say would you lead toward Bill Clinton or Bob Dole?" REGISTERED ALL ADULTS TO VOTE Mau June u June u Yo O/o O/o Yo Yo Bill Clinton Bob Dole Another candidate (vol.) Not sure Clinton's lead over Dole TABLE 4 HORSE RACE -- CLINTON VS. DOLE VS. PEROT WITHOUT WOULD NOT VOTE TREND "If the presidential election were held today, who would you most likely vote for -- Bill Clinton for the Democrats or Bob Dole for the Republicans or Ross Perot as an independent?" IF "NOT SURE" Well, if you had to say would you lead toward Bill Clinton, Bob Dole or Ross Perot?" June % Bill Clinton Bob Dole Ross Perot Another candidate (vol.) Not sure Clinton's lead over Dole 2 5 2 0 TABLE 5 HORSE RACE -- CLINTON VS. DOLE VS. LAMM' WITHOUT WOULD NOT VOTE "If the presidential election were held today, who would you most likely vote for/lean towards -- Bill Clinton for the Democrats or Bob Dole for the Republicans or Richard Lamm as an Independent candidate from the Reform party or would you note vote at all? Total Registered (All Adults) lSLb2k Yo Yo Bill Clinton Bob Dole Richard Lamm Another candidate (vol.) Not sure Clinton's lead 2 8 2 5 *When asked if they are familiar with Richard Lamm, a 74-26% majority are familiar with him. METHODOLOGY This Harris Poll was conducted by telephone within the United States between July 9 and 13, among a nationwide cross section of 1,005 adults. Figures for age, sex, race, education and number of adults in household were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. In theory, with a sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of plus or minus 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sarrlpling error. 'They include refusals to be interviewed (non-response), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is difficult or impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of National Council on Public Polls. Contact Louis Harris and Associates, Inc., Information Services, 11 1 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10003, (212) 539-9697, for complete demographic details for the questions in this release. Compuserve address: 76702,2063 Other E-mail: infoservQlha.gsbc.com COPYRIGHT 1996 CREATORS SYNDICATE, INC. ISSN 0895-7983 .