Defence Academy Yearbook 2009 The Defence Academy Yearbook 2009 A Selection of Commended Essays With a foreword by Lt Gen Andrew Graham CBE © Crown Copyright and © individual authors Editor: E McCarthy, R&AB Research and Publications Manager Copy Editor: Anne Aldis Defence Academy Yearbook i PUBLISHER’S NOTE: The views expressed in this paper are entirely and solely those of the individual authors and do not necessarily reflect official thinking and policy either of Her Majesty’s Government or of the Ministry of Defence. EDITOR’S NOTE: There have been minor alterations to the texts of these essays to conform with the constraints of this volume. ©All Serving Officers’ work is published under Crown Copyright. © Crown Copyright, © individual authors and Cranfield University ii Defence Academy Yearbook Contents – Preliminary Foreword by Lt Gen Andrew Graham CBE, Director General Defence Academy .........................................1 A ‘Pashtun Awakening?’ Can the Iraqi Anbar Province Strategy of Co-opting Local Militias to Fight Against Insurgents be Successful in Afghanistan? By Maj Paul Meagher ............................................................................................................................................2 Analyse the Impact of the Changing Strategic Environment on the Delivery of Air Power By Wg Cdr Stuart Hatzel .................................................................................................................................... 28 Evaluate the Implications for the Maritime Component of the Likely Characteristics of Future Conflict By Lt Cdr Paul Pitcher RN ................................................................................................................................... 38 Behind Armour Effects of Explosively Formed Projectiles By Mr David Dawe .............................................................................................................................................. 48 Failing States: Have the Humanitarian Interventions of the 1990s Created Them? By Mr Peter Eitel .................................................................................................................................................101 ‘Identify a crisis and: a) Describe the nature of the leadership displayed during the event, b) Argue whether the event confirms/disconfirms relevant academic literature. Case Study 1: Hurricane Katrina – A Wicked Waste By Sqn Ldr Amanda Giles RAF ....................150 Case Study 2: Black Hawk – A Case of Mistaken Identity By Mr John Parr ...................................157 Case Study 3: Leadership Amid the Rwandan Crisis By AVM Julian A Young RAF ......................165 Two Things are Going to Win or Lose This War and Nothing Else will Affect it a Damn. Our Armies Might Advance a Mile a Day and Slay the Hun in Thousands, But the Real Crux Lies in Whether we Blockade the Enemy to his Knees or Whether he Does the Same to us.’ Was Beatty Overstating the Case in 1917? How Effective are Sanctions as a Lever of Power in the Modern World? By Air Cdre M P Colley.......................................................................................................................................172 To What Extent can Decisive Victories in Naval Battles have a Significant or Even Decisive Effect on Land Campaigns Ashore? How has their Impact Changed Over time? By Cdre R J Griggs ..............................................................................................................................................181 What are the Enduring Lessons of the Soviet Campaign in Afghanistan 1979-1988 and What can the RAF Learn from the Russian Experience? By Sqn Ldr D J Fowler........................................................................................................................................190 Do Ethics and the Law of Armed Conflict Help or Hinder Military Operations Today? By The Rev (Dr) S P Swinn ................................................................................................................................197 Defence Academy Yearbook iii To What Degree has Military Force Lost Some of its Utility as a Strategic Tool in the Post Cold War Era? By Maj Mark Wilkinson ....................................................................................................................................202 Is Globalisation Undermining the Military Capability of the Nation State – and does it Matter? By T J Rowntree ..................................................................................................................................................207 The Role of China in Africa: An Agent for Developmental Transfiguration or Just Neo-Colonial Exploitation? By Surg Capt (D) G Sidoli, RN ..........................................................................................................................226 iv Defence Academy Yearbook Foreword The Defence Academy is at the centre of the United Kingdom Ministry of Defence’s training and education effort. Each year more than 400 military and civilian students graduate from the Royal College of Defence Studies, the Joint Services Command and Staff College or the College of Management and Technology with Masters degrees awarded by one or other of our partner universities, Cranfield University and King’s College London. I am very pleased to introduce a selection of essays researched and written by students studying at one or other of the component colleges of the Defence Academy in 2008/09. The strategic issues for the next 20 years with which the students must grapple encompass a subtle and interwoven blend of the implications of the shift in global power, the current and developing economic climate, globalisation, climate change, global inequality, and radicalisation. One clear deduction is that operations and defence and security ‘business’ will be conducted in environments that are multi-facetted, multi-dimensional, inherently ambiguous and potentially chaotic. To thrive in that environment will require civilian and military leaders and commanders, and their advisers and staff, to possess a feel for, and understanding of, context and situation, great touch and acute judgement, an ability to raise their eyes from the tactical, headline-grabbing here-and-now to the broader issues, and the intellect, energy and ability to exercise positive control to keep matters on a relatively even keel in pursuit of long term and strategic goals. The Defence Academy exists to develop commanders, leaders and staff, military and civilian, who are adaptable, broad-minded, calm yet decisive, able to cut through complexity, intellectually agile, able to manage risks and handle setbacks effectively – the buzz phrase is ‘comfortable with ambiguity’. Building that capacity in our people is essential if we are to continue to secure the UK’s reputation, prosperity and effectiveness as a respected actor in world affairs. It will only be achieved through appropriate training and education, underpinned by cutting edge research to challenge and then develop the way we think and the way we teach. These essays are a snapshot sample of the range of subjects addressed by students in the course of an academic year and reflect the extremely high standard of research and educational activity conducted at the Defence Academy. Many of the subjects addressed have been suggested by areas of the Ministry of Defence keen to capitalise on the capacity that is available to research questions that time may not allow to be addressed as part of routine business.1 Space demands that we can only offer a small sample selection of papers. In commending them to you please treat them as an appetiser for the much wider selection available for reference at the Defence Academy website: www.da.mod.uk. 1 If you have a requirement for directed research, in an area that would benefit Defence, please do not hesitate to contact the Chief Research and Assessment at: [email protected] with details of the research you need and the name of the sponsor. Defence Academy Yearbook 1 A ‘Pashtun Awakening?’ Can the Iraqi Anbar Province Strategy of Co-Opting Local Militias to Fight Against Insurgents be Successful in Afghanistan? Maj Paul Meagher, USMC ACSC 12 Defence Research Paper Joint Services Command and Staff College I once heard a story. It was a dark time for the US-led coalition in Iraq’s Anbar Province. Far from ushering in an era of paradise, the overthrow of Saddam Hussein’s Ba’ath regime quickly devolved into constant attacks from a sinister and shadowy insurgency. Marginalized Sunnis were enlisted as cannon fodder under the spell of Al Qaeda: the jihadist enemy. Masterful deceivers, Al Qaeda in Iraq had hypnotized the Sunni population and bent it to its will. In the face of the insurgency, the coalition was confused and aimless: lost in the woods. But there was hope, and they found their salvation. The lost and arcane art of counterinsurgency warfare (COIN) was rediscovered, and under the banner of a new commander, General Petraeus, the gospel of COIN spread from forward operating base FOB to FOB. Company and battalion commanders opened the eyes of the Sunni leaders, and the Al Qaeda spell was broken. Now free, the Sunni tribes awoke and turned on Al Qaeda, driving them from the land. Or so goes the myth. Now, in mid 2009, the dark days are in Afghanistan. The ring road around the country is largely controlled by the Taliban. By some accounts, the Taliban insurgency controls 72% of the countryside and conducts