India’s Elects 2019: The Day After MILAN VAISHNAV | MAY 24, 2019 Note: This presentation uses provisional data from the Election Commission of India. Numbers could change slightly. The BJP’s win in 2014 was big. 2019 was bigger. Source: Author’s analysis; Election Commission of India BJP’s increased vote share came at the expense of regional parties. Congress BJP Others 60 50 41.8 40 37.5 30 20 19.6 India Vote Share (Percent) Share India Vote - 10 All 0 1996 1998 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 Source: Author’s analysis; Election Commission of India In many vote key share states, > 50%. BJP Estimated vote share (percentage) 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 Himachal Pradesh Source: Author’s analysis; Election Commission Election Commission Indiaof Source: analysis;Author’s Gujarat Uttarakhand Rajasthan BJP (2014) Madhya Pradesh BJP (2019) Haryana Delhi Karnataka Goa Chhattisgarh Jharkhand The electoral arena has become markedly less competitive. 7 6.5 5.9 6 5.8 5.3 5.0 5 4.1 4 3.6 3.5 3.2 3.0 3 2.6 Weighted by Seats) by Weighted ( 2.1 2.2 1.9 2 1.7 1.7 1.7 Effective Number Number of Parties Effective 1 0 1980 2004 1952 1957 1962 1967 1971 1977 1984 1989 1991 1996 1998 1999 2009 2014 2019 Source: Author’s analysis; Election Commission of India Margins of victory are getting bigger. 30 26.1 25 23.9 19.5 Victory 20 18.2 17.3 14.8 15.4 15.2 15 13.7 14.1 11.9 12.2 10.0 10.0 9.7 10 (Percentage Points) (Percentage Average Margin of Margin Average 5 0 1971 1962 1967 1977 1980 1984 1989 1991 1996 1998 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 Source: Author’s analysis; Election Commission of India 32% of BJP voters would not have voted NDA if Modi was not the PM candidate. Source: Lokniti-CSDS 2019 National Election Study 30 Jobs actually 25 became less 20 salient as the 15 campaign went 10 on. 5 % for whom biggest problem is unemployment % for 0 May 2017 January 2018 May 2018 March 2019 April-May 2019 Source: Lokniti-CSDS 2019 National Election Study Balakot likely provided a bump. It became a filter through which other issues were seen. The big winners (other than BJP) • Jagan Reddy/YSR Congress Party • M.K. Stalin/DMK • Nitish Kumar/Janata Dal (United) The big losers (other than Congress) • Mandal politics • Arvind Kejriwal/Aam Aadmi Party • The Left A time for introspection? • Many predicted a BJP victory. Few predicted the magnitude. • What role do conceptions of nationalism play? • Do issues shape partisan attachments? Or is it the other way around? • How big are “campaign effects?” India’s Elects 2019: The Day After MILAN VAISHNAV | MAY 24, 2019.