Report to: Executive Member Deputy Leader Date: 5th December 2016 Report of: Director of People Report No: Contact Officer: Ged Kelly, Capital Programme Tele No: x2080 Manager Report Title: Secondary School Expansion Programme 2017 - 2025 Confidential: Not Confidential Purpose: To advise the Executive Member Deputy Leader of the expected rise in the demand for secondary school places and to agree to the proposed expansion of Turton HS to increase secondary school capacity from Sept 2017; to note the proposed increase in capacity at Thornleigh Salesian College; to note the proposal by UTC Bolton to offer Year 7 places from Sept 2017; and to continue to liaise with the Manchester Diocese and the school to explore the opportunity to expand St James HS from Sept 2017. Recommendations: The Executive Member Deputy Leader is requested to note the expected rise in the demand for secondary school places and to authorise Officers to continue to work with schools to develop a strategy to increase capacity as described in the report and specifically: to approve the proposal to expand Turton HS as Phase 1 of a programme to increase secondary school capacity from September 2017, and authorise Officers to continue to develop the proposed feasibility design that has been prepared by Kier for Turton HS with a view that this scheme is procured through them, utilising the current SCAPE contractor framework agreement to affect best value for money; to note the proposed increase in capacity at Thornleigh Salesian College; to note the proposal by UTC Bolton to begin offering secondary school education to Year 7 pupils from September 2017; and to continue to work closely with St James HS and the Manchester CE Diocese to explore opportunities to expand the school with the support of Basic Need funding, as part of a combined scheme that addresses current building condition issues Decision: Background Doc(s): Signed: Leader / Executive Member Monitoring Officer Date: 1.0 BACKGROUND 1.1 Since around 2009, Bolton has seen a dramatic increase in the demand for primary school places as a consequence of rising births and additionally through inward migration into the borough. In response to this increased demand, over 3,500 new primary school places have been created, providing over 500 additional places across every primary school year group (Reception through to Year 6). 1.2 Admission into the borough’s primary schools this September has been the highest in recent records with over 4,000 children starting school. By comparison, the number of Reception pupils entering Bolton’s primary schools in September 2009 was less than 3,400. During this period therefore, we have seen a rise of over 17% in Reception class admissions. 1.3 These rising cohorts are now transferring into the secondary sector where schools are beginning to see their overall pupil numbers grow. 2.0 SECONDARY SCHOOL PUPIL PROJECTIONS 2.1 The graph below illustrates the expected rise in the demand for secondary Year 7 intake places (shown by the dotted line), against the number of available Year 7 places across the borough measured as a total of all of the school’s Planned Admission Numbers (PAN) (shown by the solid line). Projected Year 7 Intakes against Capacity 2.3 This clearly shows that by September 2018, there will be more Year 7 pupils requiring a school place, than the number of Year 7 places available. However, if we look at the projected number of Year 7 pupils requiring a school place in September 2017 we can see that we will have too few places available to adequately meet the demand in September 2017. 2.4 Whilst not all schools will be full across all of their year groups (because some older cohorts will have surplus places) the rapidly rising secondary school popluation will quickly exhaust any available surplus capacity that presently exists across the school estate. This can be illustrated by the graph below, where the dotted line indicates the expected rise in the overall total number of secondary school pupils (Y7 to Y11) and the solid line represents the total number of secondary school places that are currently available. 2.5 Total Secondary Capacity against Total Projected Numbers on Roll 2.6 Notwithstanding any surplus capacity that presently exists within the secondary sector (across any year group) the projection data above clearly illustrates that the expected total number of secondary school pupils requiring a school place will exceed the overall current number of secondary school places available within the borough by September 2020. In order to appropriately respond to this rising demand it is essential therefore to begin a programme to increase secondary school capacity in the borough by September 2017. 3.0 NUMBER OF ADDITIONAL PLACES REQUIRED 3.1 In order to ensure that there are sufficient places available to meet the future annual increases in demand, it is presently estimated that it will be necessary to provide the following increases in Year 7 places, by the dates indentified in the table below, which reflect the start of each new academic year. 3.2 Whilst the above graph illustrates the number of additional Year 7 places that will be required each year from September 2017, it should be noted that the overall number of additional secondary pupil places that will be required equates to five times this amount in order to accommodate the needs of the growing secondary pupil numbers as they incrementally progress from Year 7 to Year 11. During the period 2017 to 2020, provision will therefore need to be made for a minimum of around 2,400 additional secondary school places to accommodated the growing school population. The exception to this is the identified increase in Year 7 places in September 2023 which, based upon current primary school intakes could possibly be accommodated as a single bulge year intake, although this will require closer monitorring nearer the time. 3.3 It should be stressed that the above projections are based upon current data and that this is subject to change. Over the coming years therefore, this situation will need to be kept under careful and regular annual review. In particular, an area of growing concern is the additional pressures from new in-year admissions which potentially has the effect of increasing each cohort group by around 50 to 70 or so pupils every year. This current trend means that any proposal to increase (say) Year 7 capacity needs to be mindful that by the time an individual cohort reaches Year 10, that cohort could possibly be around 200 pupils larger. Notwithstanding this possibility, in the meantime it is necessary to focus on the immediate needs where there is greater certainty of pupil numbers. 3.4 In addition, the commencement and subsequent occupation of any new housing developments during this period is also likley to be a factor that will need to be accommodated since such developments will inevitably lead to increased pupil numbers. However until such developments commence on site, it is impossible to accurately assess their consequences and any additional pupil place demand that might arise. 3.5 From the current information however, an analysis of the expected rise in secondary school pupils suggests that demand will not be evenly distributed across Bolton and so for the purposes of secondary school pupil place planning, the borough has been divided into three main geographical areas, North, South and West so that individual areas of demand can be better identified and so that resources can be more appropriately directed, notwithstanding that some secondary age pupils choose to travel to schools beyond where they live. These three areas comprise the following schools and providers: North: Bolton Eden Boys School Bolton St Catherine’s CE Academy Canon Slade CE Sharples Academy Smithills Academy Thornleigh Turton HS South: Bolton Muslim Girls School Academy Bolton UTC (currently Year 10 to Year 14 provision) Essa Academy Harper Green Kearsley Academy Ladybridge HS Little Lever Academy Mount St Joseph’s St James CE West: Rivington and Blackrod HS St Joseph’s HS Westhoughton HS 3.6 The table below provides a summary of the expected increase in demand, by year and by area (ie North, South and West). North South West Sept 2017 Provide a minimum of Provide a minimum of 60 No additional capacity 30 additional Y7 places additional Y7 places and required and incremental incremental expansion expansion thereafter thereafter Sept 2018 Provide a minimum of Provide a minimum of 30 Provide a minimum of 30 additional Y7 places additional Y7 places and 30 additional Y7 places and incremental incremental expansion and incremental expansion thereafter thereafter expansion thereafter Sept 2019 Provide a minimum of Provide a minimum of 60 Provide a minimum of 60 additional Y7 places additional Y7 places and 30 additional Y7 places and incremental incremental expansion and incremental expansion thereafter thereafter expansion thereafter Sept 2020 Provide a minimum of Provide a minimum of 60 Provide a minimum of 60 additional Y7 places additional Y7 places and 30 additional Y7 places and incremental incremental expansion and incremental expansion thereafter thereafter expansion thereafter Sept 2021 No additional capacity No additional capacity No additional capacity required required required Sept 2022 No additional capacity No additional capacity No additional capacity required required required Sept 2023 Provide a minimum of Provide a minimum of 60 Provide a minimum of 60 additional Y7 places additional Y7 places as a 30 additional Y7 places as a possible bulge possible bulge year only as a possible bulge year only year only Sept 2024 No additional capacity No additional capacity No additional capacity required required required Sept 2025 No additional capacity No additional capacity No additional capacity required required required 4.0 CRITERIA 4.1 When determining which schools should be expanded, it is proposed that the following criteria be considered, to ensure that resources are effectively used and that additional capacity is appropriately and rationally provided.