Urban Planning (ISSN: 2183–7635) 2016, Volume 1, Issue 3, Pages 38–54 DOI: 10.17645/up.v1i3.673 Article Governing Uncertainties in Sustainable Energy Transitions—Insights from Local Heat Supply in Switzerland Basil Bornemann 1,*, Stephan Schmidt 1 and Susanne Schubert 2 1 Department of Social Sciences, University of Basel, 4051 Basel, Switzerland; E-Mails: [email protected] (B.B.), [email protected] (S.S.) 2 Institute IWAR, Technische Universität Darmstadt, 64287 Darmstadt, Germany; E-Mail: [email protected] * Corresponding author Submitted: 20 May 2016 | Accepted: 10 October 2016 | Published: 4 November 2016 Abstract The governance of sustainable energy transitions (SET) is facing multiple technological, economic, societal and political uncertainties. In practice, these energy-related uncertainties play a role not only at the level of “major politics,” but also in the policymaking of local decision makers and planners. This paper seeks to attain a more differentiated understand- ing of how uncertainties concerning the energy transition play out and are dealt with in policymaking and planning “on the ground.” To do so, the paper combines conceptual reflections with an explorative empirical study on local heat supply policy in Switzerland. In conceptual regards, it proposes some distinctions of types of uncertainties related to energy transi- tions, and a typology of strategic decision options for dealing with uncertainty. On this basis, the paper reveals similarities and differences regarding the perception of uncertainties and ways of dealing with them in a number of Swiss cities. These insights evoke further questions about the causes and effects of different sensitivities to uncertainty and ways of dealing with them. Keywords energy transition; governance of uncertainty; sustainability; sustainability governance; uncertainty; urban heat supply Issue This article is part of the issue “Sustainable Planning and Technologies”, edited by Hatem Ibrahim (Qatar University, Qatar), Ahmed Khan (Université Libre de Bruxelles, Belgium), Steffen Lehmann (University of Portsmouth, UK), Dellé Odeleye (Anglia Ruskin University, UK) and Atiq Zaman (Curtin University, Australia). © 2016 by the authors; licensee Cogitatio (Lisbon, Portugal). This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribu- tion 4.0 International License (CC BY). 1. Introduction tems. For this purpose, they have set up concerted gov- ernance efforts that cut across various policy domains Energy systems all over the world are currently facing and levels (Laes, Gorissen, & Nevens, 2014). In Switzer- two major challenges. On the one hand, the existing land, for example, the federal government has come infrastructures in many countries are reaching the end up with an overarching energy strategy, which includes of their technical lifespans. On the other hand, the dis- goals such as the reduction of energy consumption, a fur- course about sustainable development (and its energy- ther substitution of fossil fuels with renewable energy, related storylines such as “peak-oil,” “climate change,” and the reduction of CO2 emissions. While this strategy and “Fukushima”) is questioning the effectiveness and promotes a general national policy framework for the legitimacy of the incumbent energy systems and has envisioned energy transition, the Swiss federalist system brought about political pressure to reform these sys- renders sub-national actors, such as cantons and munici- tems (Araújo, 2014; Solomon & Krishna, 2011). In light palities, important players for the realization of the goals. of these challenges, some countries have begun foster- In fact, these actors dispose of the main legislative and ing sustainability-oriented transitions of their energy sys- administrative competences in energy policy and plan- Urban Planning, 2016, Volume 1, Issue 3, Pages 38–54 38 ning (see Schubert, 2015) and, therefore, have to deal vided valuable conceptual and empirical insights into with the concrete challenges that come with the energy the types of uncertainties and strategies of dealing with transition and its governance “on the ground.” them in terms of collective action. However, we see One of the main challenges related to the governance two important knowledge gaps. First, there is little con- of sustainable energy transitions is uncertainty (Mead- ceptual and empirical knowledge regarding the concrete owcroft, 2009; Meijer & Hekkert, 2007). Generally, such meanings and manifestations of uncertainty in specific uncertainty results from both the long-termism and com- practice fields such as energy transitions. Second, exist- plexity of the endeavor. For example, energy infrastruc- ing research tends to focus on rather aggregate arrange- ture involves long-ranging investment cycles which deal ments for dealing with uncertainty on a strategic level of with making projections up to 60 years in advance. Yet it collective choice. Yet, there is only little knowledge about remains uncertain which societal developments and tech- how uncertainty is perceived and dealt with by actors nological innovations—not to mention what changes in on a more operational and individual level of decision- political dynamics as well as individual behaviors—might making on the ground. take place within these time horizons (Monstadt, 2004). With our paper, we seek to address these knowledge In addition, the envisioned transitions are highly complex gaps and shed light on variations of uncertainty and ways in nature, as they refer to the entire energy chain (from of dealing with them in the particular policy field of local production through distribution to consumption) and cut heat supply in Switzerland. To do so we ask the following across various technological, economic, social, and eco- question: How are uncertainties perceived and dealt with logical domains involving multiple actors at different lev- in local heat policymaking and planning in Switzerland? els. The various linkages among the different subsystems Following this question, we aim to contribute conceptual and levels virtually guarantee uncertainty. and empirical insights to the study of uncertainties in These kinds of uncertainty are also relevant in the energy transitions as well as uncertainty-oriented gover- field of energy for heat demand. As heat constitutes a ma- nance and policymaking more generally. In conceptual jor component of residential energy demand (up to 80%, respects, we bring together the general notion of uncer- including hot water, in northern European countries) and tainty with the complexity of energy transitions propos- the integration in renewable energies slows (compared ing a nuanced understanding of energy transition-related to the pace of their development in power supply dur- uncertainties. Furthermore, we provide a typology of ba- ing the last ten years), this field is assumed to bear a cru- sic strategic decision options for dealing with uncertain- cial potential for realizing a sustainable energy transition ties, which can guide further governance-oriented uncer- (e.g., BMWI & BMU, 2010). At the same time, there is an tainty research. In empirical respects, we explore how urgent need to transform the urban infrastructure in light uncertainties are perceived and dealt with in the con- of ambitious political goals in energy and climate poli- text of different governance arrangements. These con- tics. As the planning related to urban heat supply takes ceptual and explorative empirical insights shall provide place at the local level, where the existing infrastructure the ground for further systematic inquiries on the rela- requires major investments for renovation and where po- tionship between uncertainty and policymaking. litical goals for integration of renewable energies into the We begin by outlining a conceptual understanding heat supply have to be transformed into concrete mea- of uncertainty that takes account of the complexities of sures, it is the local policymakers and planners who are sustainability-oriented energy transitions (Section 2). Af- facing uncertainties and have to deal with them in con- ter critically reflecting on an established distinction of crete decisions. three “classical” uncertainty-related governance strate- While decision-making in the face of uncertainty is gies, we propose a generic typology that captures op- probably most prominently discussed in the field of psy- tions for dealing with uncertainty on the ground (Section chology with a focus on individual behavior (Tversky & 3). We illustrate our conceptual propositions with em- Kahneman, 1974), the topic is also a recurrent “classic” in pirical observations regarding the perception of energy- various fields of research focusing on collective decision- related uncertainties and the strategies for dealing with making—ranging from organization and management these uncertainties in policymaking in three Swiss cities studies (Courtney, Kirkland, & Viguerie, 1997; Weick & (Section 4). In the concluding Section 5, we summarize Sutcliffe, 2015) to policy research (Arentsen, Bressers, & the results and discuss their implications for research O’Toole, 2000; Renn, 2008). More recently, the issue has and practice regarding the governance of energy-related gained prominence in the interdisciplinary field of envi- uncertainties on the ground. ronmental and sustainability studies, reflecting a core challenge of sustainability governance (Berkes, 2007; 2. Uncertainty in the Context of Sustainable Energy Grunwald, 2007;