The Second Data Collection Survey on Mass Rapid Transit in the Federal Republic of Nigeria Final Report November 2014 Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Japan International Consultants for Transportation Co., Ltd. Yachiyo Engineering Co., Ltd. AFD Chuo Fukken Consultants Co., Ltd. JR Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc. 14-016 The Second Data Collection Survey on Mass Rapid Transit in the Federal Republic of Nigeria Final Report November 2014 Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Japan International Consultants for Transportation Co., Ltd. Yachiyo Engineering Co., Ltd. Chuo Fukken Consultants Co., Ltd. Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc. Federal Republic of Nigeria Survey Area Lagos N LRT Plan Source: Japan Railway Technical Service, “World Railways Today” Basic Data of the Federal Republic of Nigeria Source：Ministry of Foreign Affairs “Regional Affairs” Area: 0.92 million km2 (approximately 2.5 times the Main trading items area of Japan） Population: 173.60 million (2013, UNFPA) (1) Exports: crude oil, natural gas, mineral product Capital: Abuja (2) Imports: machine, electric equipment, transport equipment Ethnic groups: Hausa, Yoruba, Ibo, etc. Main trading partners (2013, EIU) Languages: English (official), Ethnic languages (1) Exports: India, USA, Brazil Religion: Islam (north area), Christians (south east (2) Imports: USA, China, India area), Local religion (whole area) Currency: Naira 1 USD＝160 Naira (as of Sep. 2014) Main industries: crude oil, natural gas, and agriculture 1 Naira＝0.65yen (as of Sep. 2014) GNI: 522.6 billion USD (2013, World Bank) Japanese aid (aggregates as of FY 2012) GNI per capita: 2,760 USD (2013, World Bank) (1) Loan assistance: 78.312 billion yen Real economic growth rate: 7.0% (2013, World Bank) (2) Grant aid: 47.45 billion yen Inflation rate 9.9% (2013, Bureau of Statistics) (3) Technical assistance: 15.318 billion yen Unemployment rate: 23.9% (2011, Bureau of Main donor (2011) (million USD, net disbursement) Statistics) (OECD/DAC) Total trade amounts (2012, Central bank of Nigeria) (1) USA (409.23), (2)UK (298.86), (3) Japan (38.52), (1) Exports: 96 billion USD (4) Canada (28.20), (5) German (21.78) (2) Imports: 58.3 billion USD Planned Lines in Lagos Metropolitan Area (LRT: 6 lines, Monorail: 1 line) The Second Data Collection Survey on Mass Rapid Transit in the Federal Republic of Nigeria Contents Summary ......................................................................................................................... S-1 Chapter 1 Background and Overview of Study 1.1 Current State and Issues of Lagos State in the Federal Republic of Nigeria ....... 1-1 1.2 Objectives of Study ............................................................................................ 1-1 1.3 Survey Area ........................................................................................................ 1-1 1.4 Concerned Entities in Nigeria ............................................................................. 1-2 1.5 Members of this study ........................................................................................ 1-3 Chapter 2 Socio-economic Indicators of the Federal Republic of Nigeria 2.1 Basic Information ............................................................................................... 2-1 2.2 Policies and Systems ........................................................................................... 2-5 2.3 Overview of Lagos State ................................................................................... 2-5 2.4 Overview of Transport Sector ............................................................................. 2-7 Chapter 3 Current State of the Railway Sector in Nigeria and Issues 3.1 Overview of the Railway Sector in Nigeria .......................................................... 3-1 3.2 Status and Issues of Railway Transport .............................................................. 3-2 3.3 Status of Development Plan and Issues ............................................................. 3-4 3.4 Current State of Legislation and Issues .............................................................. 3-7 3.5 Technical Level .................................................................................................... 3-8 3.6 Current State and Issues of Railway-related Industries (Private Sector and Supporting Industries) ......................................................... 3-14 Chapter 4 Investment Plans for the Nigerian Railway Sector 4.1 Financial Analyses of the Federal and State Governments, Investment Plans .... 4-1 4.2 Decision-making Mechanism of the Railway Sector ............................................. 4-6 4.3 Prospect of Funding for the Railway Development Plan ..................................... 4-10 4.4 Analyzing the Activities of Other Donors (Countries, Organizations) .................... 4-13 4.5 Feasibility of Co-financing with Other Donors ..................................................... 4-20 4.6 Socio-economic and Environmental Impact of the Current Investment Plans ....... 4-22 Chapter 5 Status of the Transport Sector in Lagos State and Issues 5.1 Overview of Urban Transport .............................................................................. 5-1 5.2 Current State of Urban Transport and Issues ..................................................... 5-4 5.3 Review of Measures for Mitigating Congestion in Lagos City ............................. 5-10 1 5.4 Collection of Information and Analysis of Demand for Urban Railway ................. 5-17 Chapter 6 Review and Selection of Route Options for Assistance 6.1 Verify the Priorities of the Lagos State Government for the Planned Lines for Development and the Progress of the Projects ............................................. 6-1 6.2 Feasibility of Participation by Japanese Companies ........................................... 6-10 6.3 Review the Possible Undesirable Effects on Nature and Society ........................ 6-15 6.4 Using Evaluation Indicators to Analyze Target Lines and Selecting Lines for Assistance ...................................................................................................... 6-30 Chapter 7 Understanding and Analyzing the Current State for Japanese Companies to Participate in Project 7.1 Situation in Nigeria and Lagos State .................................................................. 7-1 7.2 Design, Construction and Production Stage ....................................................... 7-3 7.3 O&M Stage ........................................................................................................ 7-6 Chapter 8 Hosting of Workshops and Seminar in Nigeria 8.1 First Workshop ................................................................................................... 8-1 8.2 Second Workshop ................................................................................................ 8-3 8.3 Seminar ............................................................................................................... 8-6 Chapter 9 Recommendations and Challenges 9.1 Recommendations to Japanese Companies for Participating in Urban Railway Projects in Nigeria .................................................................. 9-1 9.2 Main Focus of the Preliminary Study .................................................................... 9-1 9.3 Challenges for Future Review .............................................................................. 9-3 2 List of Figures Figure 2-1 Changes in Nominal GDP .................................................................. 2-2 Figure 2-2 Changes in Per-capita Nominal GDP ................................................. 2-2 Figure 2-3 GDP Ratios by Sector (2013) ............................................................. 2-3 Figure 2-4 Changes in Export Amount ................................................................. 2-4 Figure 2-5 Changes in Import Amount ................................................................. 2-4 Figure 2-6 GDP Ratios by Sector (2010) ............................................................. 2-6 Figure 2-7 Unemployment Rates in Nigeria and Lagos State .............................. 2-6 Figure 2-8 Shares of Passenger and Freight ....................................................... 2-7 Figure 2-9 Modal Share in Lagos Metropolitan Area (Except walking) ................. 2-8 Figure 2-10 Road Lengths by Road Classification ............................................... 2-9 Figure 2-11 Changes in Road Length in Lagos and Abuja ................................... 2-9 Figure 2-12 Secular Changes in Car Ownership .................................................. 2-10 Figure 2-13 Numbers of Newly Registered Automobiles and Motorcycles (Lagos State) .................................................................................. 2-10 Figure 2-14 Changes in Traffic Accidents and Number of Casualties (Nigeria as a whole) ........................................................................ 2-11 Figure 2-15 Changes in the Number of Traffic Accidents and Number of Casualties (Lagos State) ............................................... 2-11 Figure 2-16 Changes in Passenger Transport by Railway ................................... 2-12 Figure 2-17 Changes in Freight Transport by Railway ......................................... 2-12 Figure 2-18 Changes in the Number of Railway Accidents by Cause .................. 2-13 Figure 2-19 Changes in the Number of BRT (BLUE) Users ................................