FORECASTING MOBILE TICKETING ADOPTION ON COMMUTER RAIL AUTHOR: Candace Brakewood ([email protected]) COLLABORATORS: Francisca Rojas ([email protected]), Joshua Robin ([email protected]), Jake Sion ([email protected]), and Sam Jordan ([email protected]) Objectives & Methodology How does Mobile Ticketing work? Choice Modeling & Forecasting Select Origin & Destination Purchase a Ticket Display Active Ticket Choice Model: Binary logit Binary Choice Model Results: Objective: Forecast adoption Very Likely to use Mobile Ticketing model estimated for the two Category Independent Variable Coefficient T-Stat of mobile ticketing by riders Alternative Specific Constant -2.94 -5.81 lines using the open source Age 45 and older (reference) - - on Boston’s Commuter Rail 3 Age 35 to 44 0.39 1.42 software Biogeme. Age Age 25 to 34 1.25 5.07 Age 24 and under 1.27 4.17 Data : On-board survey Less than $39,999 (reference) - - Annual $40,000 to $49,999 0.83 1.92 conducted in June 2012 on Income $50,000 to $74,999 0.96 2.34 Forecasting: Sample $75,000 or more 1.23 3.27 2 lines (Worcester & Caucasian (reference) - - Asian -0.03 -0.12 enumeration performed on Ethnicity Newburyport /Rockport) African American -1.17 -1.62 all lines using recent system- Other -1.16 -1.94 Not Hispanic (reference) - - 4 Hispanic wide travel survey data. Hispanic 0.75 1.46 Survey Content: Technology 1 day or less per week (reference) - - Travel Use, Travel Behavior & 2 to 4 days per week 0.36 0.96 Frequency 5 days per week 0.21 0.61 Demographics 6 to 7 days per week 0.89 1.37 Results: 26% of Female (reference) - - Sex Male 0.17 0.9 Commuter Rail riders are Number of Observations 651 Methodology: Discrete Initial Log Likelihood -451.24 very likely to adopt Final Log Likelihood -365.38 Choice Modeling Stats Likelihood Ratio Test 171.72 mobile ticketing. Rho-Squared 0.19 Adjusted Rho-Squared 0.16 Background: Ticketing in Boston Survey Results: Technology Adoption Early Adoption: Activations Most Commuter Rail riders have access to digital technologies. Mobile Ticketing has seen dramatic growth since its launch. Zonal fare policy with 76% of survey respondents used a smartphone in the last 30 days. Daily Mobile Ticketing Activations period passes and pay-per- (November 2012 – January 2013) Worcester Line (n=469) Newburyport/Rockport (n=434) ride1 4500 0% 50% 100% 0% 50% 100% 4000 Conductor-validated 3500 system using flash pass or Computer (Laptop/Desktop) or Tablet 86% 14% 93% 7% 3000 hole punch Round Trip Half Round Trip 2500 Paper Ticket for Commuter Rail One Way Half Charlie Card smartcards Cell phone (includes smart phone) 98% 2% 97% 2% 2000 One Way Yes One Way used on MBTA bus, subway 1500 No Month Pass and light rail 1000 mMonth Pass Smart phone (iPhone, Droid, 76% 24% 76% 23% Activations Mobile Ticket of Number 10 Ride Half Blackberry, Other) 500 Charlie Card not expanded 10 Ride to Commuter Rail due to 0 high costs & complexity 1/2/2013 1/3/2013 1/4/2013 1/7/2013 1/8/2013 1/9/2013 Text Messaging 68% 32% 73% 26% 1/1/2013 12/3/2012 12/4/2012 12/5/2012 12/6/2012 12/7/2012 11/12/2012 11/13/2012 11/14/2012 11/15/2012 11/16/2012 11/19/2012 11/20/2012 11/21/2012 11/22/2012 11/23/2012 11/26/2012 11/27/2012 11/28/2012 11/29/2012 11/30/2012 12/10/2012 12/11/2012 12/12/2012 12/13/2012 12/14/2012 12/17/2012 12/18/2012 12/19/2012 12/20/2012 12/21/2012 12/24/2012 12/25/2012 12/26/2012 12/27/2012 12/28/2012 12/31/2012 Weekday Charlie Card for Buses, Subway & Light Rail Mobile Ticketing Pilot Program Survey Results: Mobile Payments Future Research Approximately half of riders already make mobile purchases. Beginning in the summer of 2012, the MBTA began a one year Over 40% of riders are somewhat or very likely to use mobile ticketing. Forecasting: Improve forecasts pilot program to launch Mobile Ticketing on Commuter Rail.2 How often do you make mobile purchases How likely are you to use your smart- with more sophisticated discrete (i.e. Starbucks, iTunes, Android Market/Play)? phone to buy your Commuter Rail ticket? choice modeling SUMMER 2012 NOVEMBER 12, 2012 Never Very unlikely Conducted a Newburyport Revealed Preferences: 48% 29% 17% 33% 8% 15% 18% 25% small group pilot NOVEMBER 28, 2012 /Rockport 6% Compare actual adoption with Launched single Somewhat approximately and 10-ride COMING IN 2013 unlikely numbers after completion of the Launched single Sometimes 100 riders on the tickets, as well (monthly) Neutral pilot program with the forecast as “mobile-only” and 10-ride Greenbush and Expanded plans Old Colony Lines monthly passes, tickets, as well Somewhat as “mobile-only” for the pilot Often likely on all North program include (weekly) Station lines for monthly passes, Very likely a Blackberry Service Planning: Use mobile iPhone and on all South Worcester 51% 30% 12% 6% 28% 7% 15% 20% 29% Android Station lines for applications and ticketing adoption & utilization monthly passes Always No Response iPhone and (every day) data for rail service planning Android with transfers (e.g. origin-destination 0% 50% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% estimation) References Acknowledgements (1) Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority. Fares & Gifts. Available at: http://mbta.com/fares_and_passes/rail/. This research was funded in part by a Rappaport Institute Public Policy Summer Fellowship, the Singapore MIT Alliance for Research and Technology, a US DOT Eisenhower fellowship, a (2) Moskowitz, Eric. MBTA Mobile-Ticket Era Begins for Commuter Rail Riders Monday. Boston Globe. WTS-Boston Fellowship, and a University Transportation Center grant. The authors would like to acknowledge the Transparency Policy Project at Harvard University and Professor Chris (3) Bierlaire, M. Biogeme Version 1.8. Transportation & Mobility Laboratory. EPFL. Zegras at Massachusetts Institute of Technology for their support. Thanks to the Central Transportation Planning Staff (CTPS) for providing the system-wide Commuter Rail survey data (4) Central Transportation Planning Staff (CTPS). Commuter Rail All Lines 2008-09. MBTA System-wide Passenger Survey. for the forecasting analysis. Last, a sincere thanks to the MIT graduate student volunteers who helped collect surveys on-board the Commuter Rail trains. .