Essays on the Emergence and Diffusion of Breakthroughs The Harvard community has made this article openly available. Please share how this access benefits you. Your story matters Citation Chai, Sen. 2013. Essays on the Emergence and Diffusion of Breakthroughs. Doctoral dissertation, Harvard Business School. Citable link https://nrs.harvard.edu/URN-3:HUL.INSTREPOS:37367795 Terms of Use This article was downloaded from Harvard University’s DASH repository, and is made available under the terms and conditions applicable to Other Posted Material, as set forth at http:// nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:dash.current.terms-of- use#LAA Essays on the Emergence and Diffusion of Breakthroughs A dissertation presented by Sen Chai to the Technology and Operations Management Unit at the Harvard Business School in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Business Administration in the subject of Technology and Operations Management Harvard University Cambridge, Massachusetts May 2013 Copyright © 2013 – Sen Chai All rights reserved Thesis advisor: Lee Fleming Sen Chai Essays on the Emergence and Diffusion of Breakthroughs Abstract This dissertation deals with the emergence and diffusion of creative breakthroughs. The first two chapters concentrate on breakthrough emergence to assess and expand extant theories of sources of breakthroughs, and employ a hybrid methodology. In particular, I study the discovery of RNA interference (RNAi) in the life sciences. By employing regressions, I find that the predictive power of current theories altogether is quite low: ranging from less than 1% for the Nobel Prize to 13% for productivity. These results prompted fieldwork and the use of interviews with scientist informants to address the gap and gain a deeper understanding of the phenomenon. My findings show that the seminal discovery was missed several times not only due to difficulties in solving a particular problem but also due to failures of identifying breakthrough opportunities and proposing them. I suggest a cognitive framework with institutional underpinnings at the basis of this failure stemming from three barriers: framing barriers, paradigmatic pressures and boundary barriers. In the problem identification stage, path dependence from established technologies and the quest toward normal science blinded scientists from recognizing a prospective breakthrough as they framed RNAi as a tool while ignoring its scientific merit for inquiry. In the problem-solving stage, scientists suffered from the socio-cognitive barrier of being constrained by current dogma. Due to reticence in challenging the dogma, they hesitated to propose solutions that significantly strayed away from the confines of established theory. Moreover, existing boundary barriers between communities of iii scientists intensified the effect of barriers in both stages. It prevented recognition of links between several prior instances of odd observations thus heightening the difficulty in identifying the breakthrough by misrepresenting the problem’s magnitude. While solving the problem, similar anti-dogmatic results stayed isolated and unsubstantiated which diminished confidence in proposing a radically new paradigm. The third chapter explores diffusion of discoveries beyond the boundary of the scientific institution. It focuses on academic-industry collaborations and assesses the effect of a mediated funding scheme on innovative performance – quantity, impact and collaborative nature of patents and papers – by comparing funded and unfunded firms. iv Table of Contents I. Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 1 II. Predicting Breakthroughs with Bibliometric Measures ............................................... 6 i. Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 6 ii. Sources of Scientific and Technological Breakthroughs ............................................................ 8 iii. Methodology and Data ........................................................................................................................ 14 Setting .............................................................................................................................................. 14 Sampling and Identifying a Community of Scientists ................................................... 15 Regression Models ...................................................................................................................... 18 Dependent Variables .................................................................................................................. 19 Explanatory Variables ............................................................................................................... 20 iv. Results ........................................................................................................................................................ 24 Robustness Checks ...................................................................................................................... 33 Weaknesses and Limitations .................................................................................................. 43 v. Discussion .................................................................................................................................................. 44 vi. Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................ 49 III. Moving Beyond Bibliometrics ............................................................................................ 51 i. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 51 ii. Literature Review ................................................................................................................................... 54 Sources of Creativity and Breakthrough ............................................................................ 54 Emergence of Scientific and Technological Breakthroughs ...................................... 56 Science vs. Technology .............................................................................................................. 57 iii. Methods ..................................................................................................................................................... 58 Historical, Scientific and Technological Context of RNA Interference .................. 60 Data Collection .............................................................................................................................. 63 Data Analysis ................................................................................................................................. 68 iv. Findings ..................................................................................................................................................... 69 Problem Identification Failures ............................................................................................. 70 Problem-Solving Failures ......................................................................................................... 78 Success in the Discovery of the First RNAi Causal Trigger ......................................... 92 v. Implications to Bibliometric Literature from Remedial Practices ..................................... 93 Circumventing Framing Barriers .......................................................................................... 93 Circumventing Boundary Barriers ....................................................................................... 94 Circumventing Paradigmatic Pressures ............................................................................. 96 Bibliometric Operationalization ............................................................................................ 98 vi. Discussion .............................................................................................................................................. 103 vii. Conclusion.............................................................................................................................................. 107 IV. Fostering Translational Research .................................................................................. 109 i. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 109 ii. Theoretical Framework and Hypotheses .................................................................................. 112 iii. Methodology ......................................................................................................................................... 115 Setting ........................................................................................................................................... 116 Empirical Approach and Identification Strategy ......................................................... 119 iv. Results ..................................................................................................................................................... 127 Placebo Test on Period Prior to Funding Event ..........................................................