Institut for Finansiering Antal STU: 181.898 Kandidatafhandling 2009 Antal normalsider: 79,95 Cand.merc.fir ____________________________________________________________________ En samlet strategisk analyse af SAS AB - med fokus på værdiansættelsesforhold, den nye strategiplan ”Core SAS”, samt de fremtidige strategiske optioner Udarbejdet af: _____________________________________________________ Jesper Færgegaard Nielsen Vejleder: Palle Nierhoff ____________________________________________________________________ Copenhagen Business School Afleveringsdato: 19. Oktober 2009 Værdiansættelse af SAS AB Jesper Færgegaard Nielsen Executive Summary: This main object of this report is to analyze the strategic perspectives of Scandinavian Air- lines System (SAS), after their introduction of a new strategy, called “Core SAS” in February 2009. The report will focus on how the implantation of “Core SAS” is expected to affect the future value creation of SAS, as well evaluating a number of future strategic options depend- ing on the eventual outcome of “Core SAS”. Chapter 2 introduces the reader to SAS and describes the company’s historic development, ownership structure and the main features of the new strategy “Core SAS”. Chapter 3 analyses the Environment SAS and its competitors are operating in. The first part of the chapter analyses how the airline industry is affected by macroenvironmental factors. To analyze SAS’ position in the increasingly contested European Aviation market Porter’s Five Forces model is used. Finally the chapter is summed up in a SWOT-analysis. Chapter 4 focuses on SAS’ historical performance in the past 5 years. The Chapter is based mainly on financial figures, but also Traffic data is analyzed. The historical data shows that SAS’ performance has dropped remarkably in 2008 and the first half of 2009 primarily and on most both financial and traffic measures SAS have performed considerably worse than its competitors. In Chapter 5 a long term budget in calculated based on the findings in Chapter 3 and Chapter 4. Then a valuation is made on two different valuation models – The Discounted Cash Flow model and the Residual Income Model, which both give the same result 5,27 SEK per share. This is considerably higher than the share price of 3,72 at August 12th when the Interim Re- port for 2nd Qtr. 2009 was announced. However a sensitivity analysis shows great uncertainty in the valuation, and therefore I find it interesting to examine a number of future strategic op- tions depending on the outcome of “Core SAS”. This is done in Chapter 6 where a number of strategic options are evaluated with focus on the state owners’ motives to maintain a public owned airline and the motives of a large European airline to acquire SAS in the future. The chapter ends with a recommendation to SAS’ management to keep focusing on restruc- turing and cost cutting, in order to be an attractive target for a potential buyer, even though a sale of SAS is expected to reduce jobs in, and accessibility to Scandinavian Airports. Side 1 af 97 Værdiansættelse af SAS AB Jesper Færgegaard Nielsen Indholdsfortegnelse: 1 Indledning: ....................................................................................................................................... 5 1.1 Problemformulering: ........................................................................................................ 6 1.2 Metode: ............................................................................................................................. 7 1.2.1 Formål: ....................................................................................................................... 7 1.2.3 Dataindsamling: ......................................................................................................... 7 1.2.4 Teorivalg: ................................................................................................................... 8 1.3 Afgrænsning: .................................................................................................................... 9 1.4 Opgavens struktur: .......................................................................................................... 10 2. Virksomhedsbeskrivelse: ............................................................................................................. 11 2.1 Historisk gennemgang af SAS:....................................................................................... 11 2.2 Vision, mission og strategi: ............................................................................................ 13 2.3 Kapital- og ejerforhold: .................................................................................................. 14 2.4 Koncernstruktur: ............................................................................................................. 15 2.5 Star Alliance: .................................................................................................................. 18 3 Strategisk Analyse: ........................................................................................................................ 18 3.1 PEST-modellen:.............................................................................................................. 18 3.1.1 Politiske forhold: ...................................................................................................... 19 3.1.2 Økonomiske forhold: ............................................................................................... 20 3.1.3 Sociokulturelle forhold: ........................................................................................... 23 3.1.4 Teknologiske forhold: .............................................................................................. 25 3.2 Porters Five Forces: ........................................................................................................ 26 3.2.1 Truslen fra nye indtrængere: .................................................................................... 26 3.2.2 Leverandører: ........................................................................................................... 27 3.2.2.1 Flyproducenter: ................................................................................................. 27 3.2.2.2 Medarbejdere: .................................................................................................... 28 3.2.2.3 Lufthavne: ......................................................................................................... 29 3.2.3 Kunder: .................................................................................................................... 30 3.2.4 Substitutter: .............................................................................................................. 31 3.2.5 Konkurrenceintensitet: ............................................................................................. 32 3.2.5.1 Lavprisselskaber: ............................................................................................... 32 3.2.5.2 Netværksselskaber: ............................................................................................ 34 Side 2 af 97 Værdiansættelse af SAS AB Jesper Færgegaard Nielsen 3.2.5.3 Alliancedannelsen på luftfartsmarkedet: ........................................................... 36 3.3 SWOT-analyse: .............................................................................................................. 38 3.3.1 Styrker: ..................................................................................................................... 38 3.3.2 Svagheder: ................................................................................................................ 38 3.3.3 Muligheder: .............................................................................................................. 39 3.3.4 Trusler: ..................................................................................................................... 39 4 Regnskabsanalyse: ........................................................................................................................ 40 4.1 Reformulering:................................................................................................................ 40 4.1.1 Indregning af dirty surplus poster: ........................................................................... 40 4.1.2 Klassifikation af leasing: .......................................................................................... 41 4.1.3 Øvrige reformulerede poster: ................................................................................... 42 4.1.3 Resultatopgørelse: .................................................................................................... 44 4.1.4 Balance: .................................................................................................................... 44 4.2 Rentabilitetsanalyse: ....................................................................................................... 46 4.2.1 Egenkapitalens forrentning: ..................................................................................... 46 4.2.2 Finansiel gearing: ..................................................................................................... 47 4.2.3 Dekomponering af afkastningsgraden: .................................................................... 47 4.3 Benchmark af nøgletal: ..................................................................................................