AEROSPACE REPORT NO. ATR-2010(5387)-1 Triggered Lightning Risk Assessment for Reusable Launch Vehicles at Four Regional Spaceports April 30, 2010 Richard L. Walterscheid1, Lynette J. Gelinas1, Glenn W. Law2, Grace S. Peng3, Robert W. Seibold2, Frederick S. Simmons4, Paul F. Zittel5 John C. Willett Consultant, Garrett Park, Maryland E. Philip Krider Institute of Atmospheric Physics University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 1Space Sciences Department, Physical Sciences Laboratories; 2Civil and Commercial Launch Systems, Space Launch Projects; 3Computer Systems Research Department, Computer Science and Technology Subdivision; 4Sensor Systems Subdivision, Electronics and Sensors Division; 5Remote Sensing Department, Physical Sciences Laboratories Prepared for: Volpe National Transportation Systems Center U.S. Department of Transportation Cambridge, Massachusetts Contract No. DTRT57-05-D-30103 Task 13A Authorized by: Space Launch Operations Public release is authorized. REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 The public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing the burden, to the Department of Defense. Executive Services and Communications Directorate (0704-0188). Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to any penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMP control number. PLEASE DO NOT RETURN YOUR FORM TO THE ABOVE ORGANIZATION. 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED (FROM - TO) 30-04-2010 Contractor Final Report August 08, 2007 – April 30, 2010 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5A. CONTRACT NUMBER DTRT57-05-D-30103 Triggered Lightning Risk Assessment for Reusable Launch Vehicles at Four Regional Spaceports 5B. GRANT NUMBER 5C. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5D. PROJECT NUMBER FA2R DL411 Richard L. Walterscheid*, John C. Willett (Consultant), 5E. TASK NUMBER E. Philip Krider (University of Arizona), Lynette J. Gelinas*, Task Order #13A Glenn W. Law*, Grace S. Peng*, Robert W. Seibold*, Frederick 5F. WORK UNIT NUMBER S. Simmons*, Paul F. Zittel* FA2R DL411 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER U.S. Department of Transportation DOT-VNTSC-FAA-10-01 Research and Innovative Technology Administration Volpe National Transportation Systems Center Safety Information Systems Division Cambridge, MA 02142-1093 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR'S ACRONYM(S) U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration FAA AST-300 Office of the Assoc. Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation Washington, DC 20591 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR'S REPORT NUMBER(S) 12. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Public Release is Authorized. 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES *The Aerospace Corporation, El Segundo, CA 90245-4691, under contract to the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center— Contract No. DTRT57-05-D-30103, Task 13A. Aerospace Corporation Report No. ATR-2009(5387)-1 14. ABSTRACT The Aerospace Corporation was tasked by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center to provide technical support to the Federal Aviation Administration, Office of Commercial Space Transportation, in assessing the risks involved with triggered lightning during suborbital launches and reentries of reusable launch vehicles (RLVs) from four regional spaceports, viz., Spaceport America in New Mexico, the Oklahoma Spaceport, the Mojave Air and Space Port in California, and the West Texas Spaceport. Risk of triggered lightning was studied for four conceptual RLVs originating and/or landing at these spaceports. Five areas were addressed: (1) observed frequencies of natural cloud-to-ground lightning at four spaceports, including data from two existing lightning-mapper arrays, plus estimates of violation frequencies of the other existing lightning flight commit criteria (LFCC), (2) literature summary and new approximate analysis of the effective conducting length of the vehicle plumes, (3) review of the current LFCC to determine if the criteria are relevant to each suborbital RLV concept, including an evaluation of local geographical effects pertaining to each spaceport to determine whether additional LFCC are necessary to conduct safe launch operations there, (4) evaluation of risk based on airborne electric field measurements and cloud, temperature and lightning data, and (5) evaluation of an aircraft icing index as an indicator of high electric fields in clouds at sites that are not instrumented with weather radars and temperature sounders. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Commercial Space Transportation, Reusable Launch Vehicle, RLV, Suborbital Launch Vehicle, Triggered Lightning, Spaceport, Spaceport America, Oklahoma Spaceport, Mojave Air and Space Port, West Texas Spaceport, Licensing, Regulation, Lightning Launch Commit Criteria 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION 18. NUMBER 19A. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON A. REPORT B. ABSTRACT C. THIS PAGE OF ABSTRACT OF PAGES Ruth A. Hunter U U U UU 202 19B. TELEPHONE NUMBER (INCLUDE AREA CODE) (617) 494-2667 AEROSPACE REPORT NO. ATR-2010(5387)-1 Triggered Lightning Risk Assessment for Reusable Launch Vehicles at Four Regional Spaceports April 30, 2010 Richard L. Walterscheid1, Lynette J. Gelinas1, Glenn W. Law2, Grace S. Peng3, Robert W. Seibold2, Frederick S. Simmons4, Paul F. Zittel5 John C. Willett Consultant, Garrett Park, Maryland E. Philip Krider Institute of Atmospheric Physics University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 1Space Sciences Department, Physical Sciences Laboratories; 2Civil and Commercial Launch Systems, Space Launch Projects; 3Computer Systems Research Department, Computer Science and Technology Subdivision; 4Sensor Systems Subdivision, Electronics and Sensors Division; 5Remote Sensing Department, Physical Sciences Laboratories Prepared for: Volpe National Transportation Systems Center U.S. Department of Transportation Cambridge, Massachusetts Contract No. DTRT57-05-D-30103 Task 13A Authorized by: Space Launch Operations Public release is authorized. AEROSPACE REPORT NO. ATR-2010(5387)-1 Triggered Lightning Risk Assessment for Reusable Launch Vehicles at Four Regional Spaceports April 30, 2010 Richard L. Walterscheid1, Lynette J. Gelinas1, Glenn W. Law2, Grace S. Peng3, Robert W. Seibold2, Frederick S. Simmons4, Paul F. Zittel5 John C. Willett Consultant, Garrett Park, Maryland E. Philip Krider Institute of Atmospheric Physics University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 1Space Sciences Department, Physical Sciences Laboratories; 2Civil and Commercial Launch Systems, Space Launch Projects; 3Computer Systems Research Department, Computer Science and Technology Subdivision; 4Sensor Systems Subdivision, Electronics and Sensors Division; 5Remote Sensing Department, Physical Sciences Laboratories Prepared for: Volpe National Transportation Systems Center U.S. Department of Transportation Cambridge, Massachusetts Contract No. DTRT57-05-D-30103 Task 13A Authorized by: Space Launch Operations Public release is authorized. AEROSPACE REPORT NO. ATR-2010(5387)-1 Triggered Lightning Risk Assessment for Reusable Launch Vehicles at Four Regional Spaceports Approved by: PK1602(2, 3512, 202, VS) ii Abstract The Aerospace Corporation was tasked by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center to provide technical support to the Federal Aviation Administration, Office of Commercial Space Transportation, in assessing the risks involved with triggered lightning during suborbital launches and reentries of reusable launch vehicles (RLVs) from Spaceport America in New Mexico, the Oklahoma Spaceport, the Mojave Air and Space Port in California, and the West Texas Spaceport. The Aerospace Corporation is pleased to submit this final report, in accordance with the requirements delineated in section F, Deliveries or Performance, of Volpe Center Contract No. DTRT57-05-D- 30103, Task 13A. Risk of triggered lightning was studied for four conceptual RLVs originating and/or landing at these spaceports. Five areas were addressed: 1. Observed frequencies of natural cloud-to-ground lightning at four spaceports, including data from two existing lightning-mapper arrays, plus estimates of violation frequencies of the other existing lightning flight commit criteria (LFCC) 2. Literature summary and new approximate analysis of the effective conducting length of the vehicle plumes 3. Review of the current LFCC to determine if the criteria are relevant to each suborbital RLV concept, including an evaluation of local geographical effects pertaining to each spaceport to determine whether additional LFCC are necessary to conduct safe launch operations there 4. Evaluation of risk based on airborne electric field measurements and cloud, temperature, and lightning data 5. Evaluation of an aircraft icing index as an indicator of high electric fields in clouds at sites that are not instrumented with weather radars and temperature sounders iii Acknowledgments Gratitude is extended to Ms. Karen Shelton-Mur at the Office of the Associate Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, for valuable guidance on FAA/AST weather-related