A COMPLEX ADAPTIVE S YSTEM PERSPECTIVE ON FLOOD RISK MANAGEMEN T A CASE STUDY IN THE MUNICIPALITY OF LEEU WARDEN Author: Tomas Post, S3556247 University: University of Groningen Supervisor: Gert de Roo Date of submission: 2nd of August, 2019 Faculty: Spatial sciences Master: Environmental and infrastructure planning Key concepts flood risk management, Complex adaptive system theory, uncertainty, coevolution, governance, institutions 2 ABSTRACT In Dutch flood risk management we can observe a gradual transformation from traditional preventive flood risk management towards more adaptive flood risk management. Adaptive flood risk management aims to anticipate change in the ability to prevent and adapt to uncertainties. Climate change, societal and economic developments are constantly evolving and influencing flood risk management. This research explores to what extent flood risk managers in Leeuwarden are experiencing events and influences that are complementary with complex adaptive system theory. Complex adaptive system theory emphasises a constantly evolving world that is able to organise itself without control. The link between theory and practice is made through a literature review, a policy document review and interviews with flood risk managers in practice. The research shows that the policy documents mainly focus on calculated uncertainty in the form of scenarios and not on uncertainty. However, flood risk managers in practice experience uncertainty and developments that are complementary with complex adaptive system theory. In practice, there is awareness of fundamental uncertainty, but robust measures and calculations remove a lot of uncertainties in the current situation. However, flood risk managers are still subject to unknown events and this will increase when future climate change is taken into consideration. The use of complex adaptive system theory gives insights in uncertainty and can motivate flood risk managers to shift towards a more adaptive and transformative approach of dealing with uncertainty. 3 CONTENT ABSTRACT ..........................................................................................................................................3 CONTENT ...........................................................................................................................................4 1. INTRODUCTION .........................................................................................................................6 1.1. BACKGROUND AND PROBLEM DEFINITION .................................................................................6 1.2. SCIENTIFIC RELEVANCE ............................................................................................................6 1.3. SOCIETAL RELEVANCE ..............................................................................................................7 1.4. RESEARCH QUESTION ..............................................................................................................7 1.5. CASE DESCRIPTION: LEEUWARDEN, FRIESLAND ..........................................................................7 1.6. RESEARCH STRUCTURE ............................................................................................................8 2. METHODOLOGY ..........................................................................................................................9 2.1. RESEARCH DESIGN ..................................................................................................................9 2.2. DATA COLLECTION ................................................................................................................ 10 2.2.1. LITERATURE RESEARCH ...................................................................................................... 10 2.2.2. POLICY DOCUMENTS REVIEW ............................................................................................... 10 2.2.3. CASE STUDY ...................................................................................................................... 10 2.3. DATA ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................................... 11 2.4. ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS ....................................................................................................... 11 3. FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT THEORY ....................................................................................... 13 3.1. INSTITUTIONS AND GOVERNANCE ........................................................................................... 13 3.2. FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT ................................................................................................... 16 3.2.1. PARADIGM SHIFTS IN FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT ................................................................. 16 3.2.2. RESILIENCE AND STRATEGIES .............................................................................................. 17 4. POLICY DOCUMENT REVIEW ................................................................................................... 21 4.4. WATERBOARD FRYSLÂN ......................................................................................................... 23 4.5. TRANSITIONS AND RESILIENCE ................................................................................................ 23 5. COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEM THEORY ................................................................................... 25 5.1. FEATURES OF A COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEM ............................................................................ 25 5.1.1. NON-LINEAR DEVELOPMENT .............................................................................................. 25 5.1.2. COEVOLUTION .................................................................................................................. 26 5.1.3. SELF-ORGANISATION......................................................................................................... 27 5.2. COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS AND FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT .................................................. 28 5.3. CONCEPTUAL MODEL ............................................................................................................ 28 6. INTERVIEW RESULTS ............................................................................................................... 30 6.1. PERCIEVED COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEM INFLUENCE .................................................................. 30 6.1.1. MUNICIPALITY OF LEEUWARDEN ........................................................................................ 30 6.1.2. PROVINCE OF FRIESLAND ................................................................................................... 33 6.1.3. RIJKSWATERSTAAT/NATIONAL GOVERNMENT....................................................................... 35 6.1.4. WATERBOARD FRYSLÂN .................................................................................................... 37 6.2. COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEM INFLUENCE AND POLICY DOCUMENTS ............................................. 40 7. CONCLUSION AND DISCUSSION ................................................................................................ 41 7.1. CONCLUSION ....................................................................................................................... 41 4 7.2. DISCUSSION ........................................................................................................................ 43 BIBLIOGRAPHY ................................................................................................................................. 44 APPENDIX 1: INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT MUNICIPALITY OF LEEUWARDEN......................................... 48 APPENDIX 2: INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT PROVINCE OF FRIESLAND .................................................... 54 APPENDIX 3: INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT RIJKSWATERSTAAT .............................................................. 59 APPENDIX 4: INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT WETTERSKIP FRYSLÂN ......................................................... 64 5 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1. Background and problem definition Climate change is increasingly present among society. The decade 2000-2010 was on a global level the warmest recorded decade in human history (Mesík, 2011). Global warming causes ice caps to melt which results in sea level rise. In addition, more extreme weather patterns emerge resulting in extreme droughts and extreme precipitation events (KNMI, 2018). Extreme precipitation results in high river discharges and water nuisance over a short time. Especially areas around or below sea level are vulnerable for floods. However, to what extent weather patterns change remains unclear. So, even though flood risk managers anticipate the future, uncertainty still remains. There are many delta regions around the world that already suffer the consequences of increasing floods. Other areas are well protected at this time, but are vulnerable for future floods due to the changing climate. The Netherlands is an example of such an area with 55% of its surface being vulnerable for flooding and 26% of its surface being below sea level (Planbureau voor de leefomgeving, 2008). Sea level rise threatens the existing dike rings which protect the main land from the sea. In addition, the increase in heavy rainfall increases the chances of pluvial flooding as well. The Netherlands has a history with floods. In 1953, a north-western storm hit the Netherlands. This resulted in a major flood which caused