State of Newspaper Scene 2007 Submitted to Press Council of India New Delhi by Research House, Community Centre, Saket, New Delhi – 17 Email : [email protected]; Website: www.cmsindia.org 14 July 2008 An Appraisal of Newspaper Scene 2007 Page No. I. Growth of Newspaper 1 1 Impressive growth 1 2. Concern, elsewhere 2 3. A case example: Jagran 3 II Potential Much More 4 1. Readership trends 4 2. Growth of number of newspapers 7 3. Per copy readership 8 4. Growth of Magazines 9 5. Business dailies 10 6. Spread of publishing centers 11 III. What Stimulated 13 1. News Channels have expanded market for dailies 13 2. Competition triggered growth 14 3. High growth, low expansion 16 4. FDI into media 16 IV. Undeterred Advertising through newspapers 18 V. Content Models 21 1. Credibility increased, but slipped as primary source 21 2. Preoccupation with politics continue 21 3. Content priorities/ model 23 VI. Shifts in the Paradigm 24 1. Shift In The Paradigm Of Media Operations 24 2. Power Shift! 24 3. Media Viability 25 4. New Gatekeepers in Media 25 VII. Miles to go… 27 1. Future prospects 27 2. Prospects 27 3. One-third to two-thirds target 28 VIII. Determinants 30 1. Readership Surveys 30 2. Media education 31 3. Inclusive Journalism 32 4. Visibility of Women journalists 32 5. Ever increasing production costs: 33 6. Responsive Relationships: 33 7. Wage Board 34 8. Corporates controlled newspapers 35 9. Price wars 35 10. Threats to freedom of press 37 11 RTI Act 37 IX. Conclusion 38 14 July 2008 An Appraisal of Newspaper Scene 2007 I. Growth of Newspaper 1. Impressive Growth 2007 was yet another year of an impressive turnaround in the newspaper scene in India. The growth has been much beyond global trend and higher than the over all growth of economy of the country. And, in fact, notwithstanding marginal decline in the (year in) readership across all segments of newspapers, the mass media scenario itself has been witnessing a phenomenal growth during the recent years. There were visible signals in 2007 of continued buoyancy in the newspaper scene. The Indian print media “industry” according Price Water House Coopers, recorded a growth of 16 percent in 2007 to reach an estimated Rs.13000 crores. This growth percentage of print media has been more than in the case of television. Its forecast is that print media would grow to Rs. 281 billion by 2012. Within print media, newspaper publishing constitutes more than 80 percent and this segment grew at 17 percent. This growth rate however is expected to decline to 13 percent in 2008 but buoyancy will continue. (During this period newspaper publishing market would reach Rs.243 billion from the 2007 level of Rs.149 billion). An analysis of the financials of 37 publicly traded companies in the Indian Media and Entertainment (M & E) sector, for example, shows that the gross profits grew 31 percent in compound terms between 2003 and 2007. The Indian M & E group was twice as profitable as its global counterparts. Between 2003 and 2007, print media enjoyed the highest compounded growth and operating profit margin according to Ernest and Young. If Bennett, Coleman & Co.Ltd, Kasturi & Sons, Dainik Bhaskar Corpt, HT Media, Jagran Prakashan, Midday, Cyber Media could be taken (as reliable) indicative for the performance of the sector, the emerging picture is too obvious as they all have registered growth for 2007. In fact, 14 newspaper publishing groups account for about two-third of newspaper circulation and for three-fourth of newspaper revenues. Their growth in 2007 was anywhere between 8 to 22 percent. The bigger the publishing group, the higher was its growth rate in 2007. 1 Bennett, Coleman & Co.Ltd, HT Media, Kasturi & Sons, ABP, Jagran, Dainik Bhaskar and Ushodaya had registered a growth of 15 percent or more in their turnover. Revenue Growth for 2007 of major Newspaper groups Publication Groups Growth rate in percentages Bennett Coleman & Co 22 Jagran Prakashan 18 The Hindustan Times 20 Dainik Bhaskar Group 18 ABP Group 20 Kasturi & Sons 20 Living Media India 13 Malayala Manorama Group 12 The Thanthi Trust 12 Ushodaya Enterprises 15 Deccan Chronicle Group 10 Lok Prakashan 8 Sakal Papers 8 Rajasthan Patrika 8 Source: Pitch-Madison 2008 2. Concern, elsewhere Although 61st World Newspaper Congress (June 2008) maintai ned that “newspaper circulation has been rising or stable in three quarters of the world’s countries over the past five years”, one cannot ignore that the rise of the Internet and shrinking attention spans are causing concern for newspapers in USA and Europe. The idea of a “free newspapers” catching up in a few countries, is to cope with such a trend and increasing costs. It is the scenario of China, India and Japan, which is keeping the upbeat trend of newspapers. The contribution of India as the second large newspaper country next only to China, is significant for such an optimistic scenario. Nevertheless, research around the world, including in India, has pointed that younger generation spends more time on Internet and web version of newspapers. This trend needs to be viewed against the background of all out efforts in the country to increase access to ICT including in rural areas. It was around 1997 that market analysts in India started describing mass media as an “industry” or as a “Business”. It was around 2001 with the proliferation of satellite television 2 that “entertainment” was tagged on to “media” to make it as “M&E sector”. The market analysts make such grouping is to indicate the “size”, “largeness” and “growth opportunities”. With convergence of communication technologies giving birth to a host of new media services, it may soon become “Communication & Broadcasting” sector unconcern of content dimensions. The Increased interest in India as a potential market for foreign investors in media sector, has also caused a realization within the country of the potential for growth of media and the opportunities there in. It is this optimism which is driving newspapers in India and has given a new impetus and confidence. The Indian Newspaper Society (INS), the apex body of the “industry” summed up the situation in its annual report for 2006 – 07 as “Newspaper industry has grown at a rapid pace for the fourth consecutive year” and it concurred with Price WaterHouse Coopers projection that annual growth of the newspapers next five years will be 13 percent cumulative. 3. A case example: Jagran The growth of multi edition daily publications, after a lull in the earlier years, has been impressive in the last couple of years. There are more than a couple of examples specifically in regional languages. Jagran and Bhaskar in Hindi are the top two dailies of India and offer good example to reflect this trend. Jagaran (Jagran Prakashan), for example, reflects the current surge. It has a daily circulation of 1.872 million copies (2007) highest among all Indian language dailies in India. It has a presence in several States with 28 editions published from 25 centres. It has a women targeted magazine, one for young generation, and several more are on the pipeline. Its revenue grew by 12 percent in 2007 touching Rs. 2 billion mark. Its advertising revenue grew by 29 percent and circulation increased by 11 percent. Its net profit increased from Rs 177 million in 2006 to Rs. 259.30 million in 2007. Today, stock market valuation of HT Media and Jagran Prakashan is at about the same level of over Rs. 1000 crores. 20.8 percent stake of this group was brought by Independent News group of London (reportedly for two million pounds) and 3.88 percent held by FII. The promoters of this group favour a 100 FDI in news media of the country, including newspapers. 3 II. Potential Much More 1. Readership trends Notwithstanding the inconsistencies in readership surveys year to year, a time series analysis at macro level for 1982-2007 period reflects broad trends. In terms of reach of television and press their growth path has been different. As could be seen from the graphs for rural and urban, television viewership increased speedily upto 1995 and thereafter it paltered despite the boom in the number of channels and networks. Whereas in the case of newspapers the momentum in readership was visible from 2000 and more marked after 2002. That was when number of news bulletins of TV channels and 24-hour news channels started proliferating. READERSHIP TRENDS (percent of adults) 2006 2007 All India Urban Rural All India Urban Rural Dailies 37.4 57.0 28.6 37.1 55.8 28.6 Magazines 13.8 23.9 9.2 12.2 21.1 8.2 Any publication 38.7 58.7 29.9 38.3 57.5 29.7 Source: IRS 2006(R2) and 2007 (R2) Four important factors could be attributed for the growth trend of newspapers. First, the spread of television particularly news channels. This unwittingly created a base for newspapers. Second, the competition - between television channels for viewership and between newspapers for readership and, then, between new channels and newspapers. Third, economic and demographic aspects to do with literacy and lifestyles. Fourth, the wide gap in readership, between regions of the country and male-female, urban-rural, started declining although the differences are still glaring, constantly reminding the potential for growth. 4 Despite the recent growth in the numbers of mass media and the boom in news media, their overall reach put together is not even two thirds of adult population of the country. In fact, in the last couple of years when proliferation was high, there was stagnation in the “overall expansion” in media reach.