TEFAF Art Market Report 2015 Prepared by Dr. Clare McAndrew TEFAF ART MARKET REPORT 2015 The Global Art Market, with a focus on the US and China Prepared by Dr Clare McAndrew Arts Economics TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword 9 3.5 Ultra-High Net Worth Individuals 130 3.6 HNWIs and their Allocation to Art and Antiques 134 Acknowledgements 11 3.7 Average Incomes and the Art Market 137 SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS 13 3.8 Art Buyers 145 3.9 Conclusions 149 CHAPTER 1 The Global Art Market in 2014 19 Key Findings 21 CHAPTER 4 Art Fairs 153 1.1 Art Market Overview 22 Key Findings 155 1.2 The Distribution of the Global Art and 4.1 The Emergence of Art Fairs 156 Antiques Market 24 4.2 The Regional Distribution of Art Fairs 158 1.3 Auction Sales 26 4.3 Art Fair Visitors 159 1.4 Fine Art Auction Prices 32 4.4 Exhibitor Numbers 162 COLOPHON 1.5 Dealer Sales 41 4.5 Art Fair Sales 166 1.6 The Cross-Border Trade in Art 49 CHAPTER 5 Online Sales 173 Publisher CHAPTER 2 Sectors 65 Key Findings 175 The European Fine Art Foundation (TEFAF) Key Findings 67 5.1 Introduction and Context 176 Broekwal 64, 5268 HD Helvoirt 2.1 Fine Art Sectors 68 5.2 The Development of the Online Art Market 177 The Netherlands T +31 411 64 50 90 2.2 Post War and Contemporary Art 70 5.3 The Structure of the Online Art Market 183 F +31 411 64 50 91 2.3 Modern Art 78 5.4 Website Trafc and Global Reach 194 E [email protected] 2.4 Impressionist and Post-Impressionist 86 5.5 E-Commerce in China 204 I www.tefaf.com 2.5 Old Masters 92 5.6 Conclusions and Outlook 206 2.6 Decorative Art Sectors 101 Design & Production 2.7 20th and 21st Century Design 101 Ideebv, Maastricht, The Netherlands 2.8 Chinese Decorative Art and Antiques 109 CHAPTER 6 Economic Impact www.ideebv.com of the Art Market 213 All rights reserved. No part of this Key Findings 215 publication may be reproduced or CHAPTER 3 Changing Patterns 6.1 Employment 216 transmitted, in any form or by any of Global Wealth and Art Collecting 115 6.2 Ancillary Economic Impact 218 means, without the prior permission Key Findings 117 of the publisher. 3.1 Economic Growth 118 © 2015 TEFAF 3.2 World Wealth 121 Appendix – A Note on Data Sources 223 3.3 HNW Wealth 125 Appendix – Current International Context of ISBN/EAN 978-90-75375-20-6 3.4 Global Millionaires and Wealth 127 Legislation Regarding Movable Cultural Heritage 229 NUR 640 3 TABLES AND FIGURES CHAPTER 1 The Global Art Market in 2014 Figure 1g. Lots Offered Versus Sold and Buy-in Rates in the Ta b l e 1 a . The Global Art Market: Value and Volume Chinese Auction Market 2004 - 2014 30 of Transactions 22 Figure 1h. Averages and Medium Fine Art Auction Prices in 2014 35 Ta b l e 1 b. Growth in Sales on the Global Art and Figure 1i. Share of Lots Sold and Total Value at Global Fine Art Antiques Market 23 Auctions in 2014 by Price Bracket 36 Ta b l e 1 c . Global Market Share of the US, UK and China Figure 1j. Market Share of Fine Art Auction Market for Works 2006 - 2014 24 Sold less than €50,000, more than €50,000 and more Ta b l e 1 d . Average Auction Prices for Fine Art by Country than €1 million 40 2007-2014 33 Figure 1k. Share of Dealer Businesses by Total Sales: Ta b l e 1 e. Share of Artists with Sales at Auction by Price Bracket 2012 to 2014 42 in 2014 37 Figure 1l. Average Time Taken to Sell Works from Dealers’ Ta b l e 1 f. Auction Sales Above and Below €50,000 in 2014 39 Inventory 45 Ta b l e 1 g . Share of Global Dealer Sales Transactions by Price Figure 1m. Share of Global Dealer Sales Transactions by Price Bracket 2012 to 2014 46 Level in 2014 46 Ta b l e 1 h . Global Imports and Exports of Art and Antiques Figure 1n. World Imports of Art and Antiques 2003 - 2013 in 2013 52 (Billion Euro) 49 Ta b l e 1 i . Summary Statistics: EU Imports and Exports of Art Figure 1o. World Exports of Art and Antiques 2003 - 2013 and Antiques 54 (Billion Euro) 50 Ta b l e 1 j . Imports of Art and Antiques to Emerging Markets Figure 1p. Share of the Value of Global Imports of Art and (€ Million) 60 Antiques, by Country 51 Ta b l e 1 k . Exports of Art and Antiques from Emerging Markets Figure 1q. Share of the Value of Global Exports of Art and (€ Million) 61 Antiques, by Country 53 Figure 1r. Average Intra-EU and Extra-EU Imports and Exports Figure 1a. Global Art Market Share by Value in 2014 25 of Art and Antiques 58 Figure 1b. EU Art Market Share by Value in 2014 25 Figure 1c. Global Auction Market 2004 to 2014 26 Figure 1d. Auction Market Global Share by Value in 2014 27 CHAPTER 2 Sectors Figure 1e. Fine Art Auction Market Global Share by Volume Ta b l e 2 a . Prices in the Post War and Contemporary Sector in 2014 28 in 2014 75 Figure 1f. Auction Sales in the Chinese Auction Market Ta b l e 2 b. Top 20 Selling Post War and Contemporary Artists 2004 - 2014 29 in 2014 76 4 5 TABLES AND FIGURES Ta b l e 2 c . Top Prices in the Post War and Contemporary Sector Figure 2g. Sales by Price Bracket in the Modern Art Sector Ta b l e 3 h . GDP per capita and Growth Rates: Selected Nations 140 CHAPTER 5 Online Sales in 2014 77 in 2014 82 Ta b l e 5 a . Global Internet Penetration Statistics 176 Ta b l e 2 d . Prices in the Modern Sector in 2014 83 Figure 2h. Impressionist and Post-Impressionist Auction Sales Figure 3a. Share of World Population in the Top 1% of Wealth 124 Ta b l e 5 b. Website Rankings by Traffic 196 Ta b l e 2 e. Top 20 Selling Modern Artists in 2014 84 2004-2014 86 Figure 3b. The Total Global Population of HNWIs 125 Ta b l e 5 c . Website User Engagement 200 Ta b l e 2 f. Top Prices in the Modern Sector in 2014 85 Figure 2i. Market Share of the Impressionist and Post- Figure 3c. Global Population and Wealth of “Dollar Millionaires” Ta b l e 5 d . Website Reputation and Use of Social Media 202 Ta b l e 2 g . Prices in the Impressionist and Post-Impressionist Impressionist Sector in 2014 87 2010-2014 127 Ta b l e 5 e. Web Analytics for China’s Top Art E-commerce Sites 206 Sector in 2014 89 Figure 2j. Sales by Price Bracket in 2014 88 Figure 3d. Distribution of the UHNWI Population in 2014 133 Ta b l e 2 h . Top 20 Selling Impressionist and Post-Impressionist Figure 2k. Old Master and European Old Master Painting Sales Figure 3e. Distribution of the UHNWI Wealth in 2014 133 Figure 5a. Timeline for Art Market E- Commerce: Selected Artists in 2014 90 2004-2014 93 Figure 3f. Allocation of Investments of Passion in 2014 135 Companies 181 Ta b l e 2 i . Top Prices in the Impressionist and Post-Impressionist Figure 2l. Sales by Price Bracket in 2014 95 Figure 3g. UHNWIs Allocation to Luxury Goods and Services Figure 5b. Share of Inventory Sold Online by Price Level 185 Sector in 2014 91 Figure 2m. 20th/21st Century Design Sales 2004-2014 102 (% of Total Expenditure) 136 Figure 5c. The New Online Art Market 187 Ta b l e 2 j . Global Market Share: Old Master Paintings in 2014 94 Figure 2n. 20th/21st Century Design Market Share in 2014 103 Figure 3h. Global Wealth Distribution in 2014 138 Ta b l e 2 k . Prices in the Old Master Sector in 2014 96 Figure 2o. Sales by Price Bracket in 20th/21st Century Design Figure 3i. Income Quintile Share Ratio: Selected Countries 141 Ta b l e 2 l . To p 2 0 S e l l i n g Old Master Artists in 2014 99 in 2014 105 Figure 3j. Growth in Share of Income Groups in the US Since 1920 144 Ta b l e 2 m . Top 20 Prices in the Old Master Market in 2014 100 Figure 2p. Sales in the Chinese Decorative Arts Auction Market Figure 3k. Market Share of Sales by Buyer Group 146 CHAPTER 6 Economic Impact of the Art Market Ta b l e 2 n . Prices in the 20th/21st Century Design Sector in 2014 106 2011-2014 109 Figure 3l. Most Important Nationalities for Dealers in 2014 147 Ta b l e 6 a . Ancillary Expenditure and Employment Generated Ta b l e 2 o. Top 20 Prices in the 20th/21st Century Design Sector Figure 2q. Market Share in the Chinese Decorative Art Figure 3m. Location of Top 200 Collectors 148 by the Art Trade in 2014 220 in 2014 107 Auction Market 110 Ta b l e 2 p. Prices in the Chinese Decorative Art Sector in 2014 112 Figure 2r. Sales by Price Bracket in Chinese Decorative Arts Figure 6a.