UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, IRVINE Impacts of electric highways for heavy-duty trucks DISSERTATION submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in Civil and Environmental Engineering by Mariana Teixeira Sebastiani Dissertation Committee: Professor Stephen Ritchie, Chair Professor Jean-Daniel Saphores Assistant Professor Michael Hyland 2020 © 2020 Mariana Teixeira Sebastiani To my father, Luiz Eduardo, my mother, Marcia, my brother, Henrique, and my grandmother, Neida. To Diogo and Luigi, amor. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES ......................................................................................................... VI LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................... IX ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .................................................................................................. X VITA ............................................................................................................................... XI ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION ....................................................................... XIV CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................... 1 1.1 The impacts of transportation in the environment ........................................... 1 1.2 Alternative fuel technologies ........................................................................... 2 1.3 Electric road system ....................................................................................... 6 1.4 Research objectives ..................................................................................... 10 1.5 Outline of the dissertation ............................................................................. 11 CHAPTER 2. ELECTRIC HIGHWAY ............................................................................ 13 2.1 The eHighway by Siemens ........................................................................... 13 2.2 Pilot projects ................................................................................................. 17 2.2.1. Pilot project in Sweden ........................................................................................... 18 2.2.2. Pilot project in the United States ............................................................................. 19 2.2.3. Pilot project in Germany.......................................................................................... 20 2.2.4. Pilot project in Italy .................................................................................................. 23 2.3 eHighway cost analysis ................................................................................ 24 2.4 Literature review on eHighway ..................................................................... 25 2.5 Conclusions .................................................................................................. 28 CHAPTER 3. CALIFORNIA STATEWIDE FREIGHT FORECASTING MODEL ............ 30 3.1 CSFFM description ....................................................................................... 30 3.2 Road aggregation, sorting, and filtering ........................................................ 34 3.3 Filtered model ............................................................................................... 40 3.4 Conclusions .................................................................................................. 42 CHAPTER 4. EHIGHWAY ROAD SELECTION ............................................................ 44 4.1 Choosing the eHighway location .................................................................. 44 4.2 Selection based on VMT .............................................................................. 45 4.3 Scenarios based on environmental justice ................................................... 47 iii 4.4 Scenarios results for 2020 ............................................................................ 50 4.4.1. Scenario 1 ............................................................................................................... 51 4.4.2. Scenario 2 ............................................................................................................... 52 4.4.3. Scenario 3 ............................................................................................................... 54 4.4.4. Scenario 4 ............................................................................................................... 55 4.5 Scenarios results for 2040 ............................................................................ 57 4.5.1. Scenario 5 ............................................................................................................... 57 4.5.2. Scenario 6 ............................................................................................................... 58 4.5.3. Scenario 7 ............................................................................................................... 59 4.5.4. Scenario 8 ............................................................................................................... 60 4.6 Commodities distribution .............................................................................. 61 4.7 Conclusions .................................................................................................. 62 CHAPTER 5. EMISSIONS ANALYSIS .......................................................................... 64 5.1 Well-to-wheel analysis .................................................................................. 64 5.2 Emission analysis methodology.................................................................... 66 5.3 Well to pump emission analysis and the GREET model ............................... 69 5.4 Pump to wheel emission analysis and the CARB’s Vision Model ................. 71 5.5 Electric emissions analysis and the HiGRID model ...................................... 72 5.6 Emission results for 2020 ............................................................................. 77 5.7 Emission results for 2040 ............................................................................. 82 5.8 Local emissions for the EJ scenarios ........................................................... 87 5.9 Conclusions .................................................................................................. 90 CHAPTER 6. POWER GRID ANALYSIS ...................................................................... 93 6.1 California electric grid ................................................................................... 93 6.2 Methodology for analyzing the impact of the eHighway system on the electric grid ..................................................................................................................... 98 6.3 Conclusions ................................................................................................ 102 CHAPTER 7. CONCLUSIONS AND MAIN CONTRIBUTIONS ................................... 103 7.1 Model limitations and future directions ....................................................... 105 7.2 Research contributions ............................................................................... 106 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................ 107 APPENDIX A. SOURCE CODE FOR CHAPTER 3 .................................................... 113 iv APPENDIX B. SOURCE CODE FOR CHAPTER 4 .................................................... 123 APPENDIX C. SOURCE CODE FOR CHAPTER 5 .................................................... 130 APPENDIX D. SOURCE CODE FOR CHAPTER 6 .................................................... 135 v LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Greenhouse gases emissions for California in 2017 by sector and sub-sector 2 Figure 2. Example of hydrogen fuel cell trucks ................................................................ 4 Figure 3. Example of battery-electric trucks .................................................................... 4 Figure 4. Alternative fuel vehicles efficiency comparison ................................................ 7 Figure 5. Three electric road system concepts. ............................................................... 8 Figure 6. eHighway functionalities ................................................................................. 14 Figure 7. The eHighway pantograph ............................................................................. 15 Figure 8. The eHighway contact line ............................................................................. 16 Figure 9. Euro 6 hybrid diesel truck driving on the eHighway in Sweden ...................... 18 Figure 10. Alameda Street eHighway pilot project ........................................................ 19 Figure 11. The ELISA pilot project in Germany ............................................................. 21 Figure 12. Map with the three pilot projects in Germany ............................................... 23 Figure 13. Freight analysis zones in California .............................................................. 31 Figure 14. Daily truck volume for each CSFFM truck classification ............................... 32 Figure 15. Sample of a small area in the CSFFM ......................................................... 35 Figure 16. PCA applied to a 2-dimension dataset ........................................................