Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development Planning and Economic Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development The Background to the Budget 2012/13 Fiscal Year PRIORITIES FOR RENEWED ECONOMIC GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT The Background to the Budget 2012/13 NOT FOR SALE June 2012 Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development Designed and Printed by: Plot 2-12 Apollo Kaggwa Road P.O. Box 8147, Kampala Uganda YYYƂPCPEGIQWI Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development BACKGROUND TO THE BUDGET FY 2012/13 Priorities for Renewed Economic Growth and Development June 2012 i TABLE OF CONTENTS PART ONE: INTRODUCTION AND GLOBAL AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS ............................... 2 CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................... 4 CHAPTER TWO: GLOBAL AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS AND PROSPECTS ........................................................ 7 2.1 GLOBAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND PROSPECTS ..................................................................................................... 7 2.1.1 Global Economic Growth ................................................................................................................................ 7 2.1.2 World Commodity Prices and Inflation ........................................................................................................... 9 2.1.3 International Trade ....................................................................................................................................... 10 2.1.4 International Finance for Development ........................................................................................................ 11 2.2 REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND PROSPECTS ................................................................................................ 12 2.2.1 Sub-Saharan Africa ....................................................................................................................................... 12 2.2.2 East African Sub-region ................................................................................................................................. 12 2.2.3 East African Community Integration ............................................................................................................. 14 PART TWO: DOMESTIC ECONOMIC OUTCOMES AND PROSPECTS ................................................................ 18 CHAPTER THREE: ECONOMIC GROWTH ................................................................................................................ 20 3.1 GDP GROWTH ....................................................................................................................................................... 20 3.2 SECTORAL GROWTH PERFORMANCE ........................................................................................................................... 20 3.2.1 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing .................................................................................................................. 21 3.2.2 Industrial sector ............................................................................................................................................ 23 3.2.3 Services sector ............................................................................................................................................... 23 3.3 SHORT AND MEDIUM-TERM GROWTH PROSPECTS ......................................................................................................... 25 3.3.1 Macroeconomic stability and investor confidence........................................................................................ 25 3.3.2 Public and private investment ...................................................................................................................... 27 3.3.3 Financial intermediation ............................................................................................................................... 28 3.3.4 Potential sources of vulnerability .................................................................................................................. 28 3.4 THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT .................................................................................................................................. 30 3.4.1 Regulatory Reforms for Private Sector Development ................................................................................... 31 CHAPTER FOUR: MONETARY AND FINANCIAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS .............................................................. 33 4.1 MONETARY POLICY AND THE MONETARY SECTOR......................................................................................................... 33 4.1.1 The monetary policy framework ................................................................................................................... 33 4.1.2 Inflation ......................................................................................................................................................... 33 4.1.3 Interest rates ................................................................................................................................................. 36 4.1.4 Private sector credit ...................................................................................................................................... 39 4.1.5: Exchange Rate Policy and Foreign Exchange Market Developments ........................................................... 40 4.2 FINANCIAL SECTOR PERFORMANCE AND REFORMS ....................................................................................................... 42 4.2.1 The commercial banking sector .................................................................................................................... 42 4.2.2 Credit institutions .......................................................................................................................................... 44 4.2.3 Microfinance Deposit Taking Institutions ..................................................................................................... 45 4.2.4 Microfinance Institutions .............................................................................................................................. 46 4.2.5 Capital Markets............................................................................................................................................. 49 4.2.6 Pensions industry and pensions sector reform .............................................................................................. 50 4.2.7 Insurance industry ......................................................................................................................................... 50 4.2.8 Financial sector reform initiatives ................................................................................................................. 51 CHAPTER FIVE: EXTERNAL SECTOR ..................................................................................................................... 53 5.1 OVERALL BALANCE OF PAYMENTS .............................................................................................................................. 53 5.2 THE CURRENT ACCOUNT ......................................................................................................................................... 55 5.2.1 Trade Balance ............................................................................................................................................... 55 5.2.2 Exports .......................................................................................................................................................... 55 5.2.3 Imports .......................................................................................................................................................... 56 5.2.4 Services Account ........................................................................................................................................... 57 5.2.5 Income account ............................................................................................................................................. 57 5.2.6 Current transfers ........................................................................................................................................... 57 5.3 THE CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT ...................................................................................................................... 58 ii 5.4 PUBLIC EXTERNAL DEBT POSITION ............................................................................................................................. 58 5.4.1 External Debt Sustainability and Sensitivity Analysis .................................................................................... 60 5.4.2 Risk Characteristics of the Existing External Debt Portfolio .......................................................................... 61 CHAPTER SIX: PUBLIC FINANCE ........................................................................................................................ 63 6.1 OVERALL FISCAL STRATEGY ...................................................................................................................................... 63 6.2 THE RESOURCE ENVELOPE ......................................................................................................................................