IAEA-TECDOC-1962 IAEA-TECDOC-1962 IAEA TECDOC SERIES Assessing National Economic Effects of Nuclear Programmes Assessing National Economic Effects of Nuclear IAEA-TECDOC-1962 Assessing National Economic Effects of Nuclear Programmes Final Report of a Coordinated Research Project International Atomic Energy Agency Vienna @ ASSESSING NATIONAL ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF NUCLEAR PROGRAMMES The following States are Members of the International Atomic Energy Agency: AFGHANISTAN GEORGIA OMAN ALBANIA GERMANY PAKISTAN ALGERIA GHANA PALAU ANGOLA GREECE PANAMA ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA GRENADA PAPUA NEW GUINEA ARGENTINA GUATEMALA PARAGUAY ARMENIA GUYANA PERU AUSTRALIA HAITI PHILIPPINES AUSTRIA HOLY SEE POLAND AZERBAIJAN HONDURAS PORTUGAL BAHAMAS HUNGARY QATAR BAHRAIN ICELAND REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA BANGLADESH INDIA ROMANIA BARBADOS INDONESIA RUSSIAN FEDERATION BELARUS IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF RWANDA BELGIUM IRAQ SAINT LUCIA BELIZE IRELAND SAINT VINCENT AND BENIN ISRAEL THE GRENADINES BOLIVIA, PLURINATIONAL ITALY SAMOA STATE OF JAMAICA SAN MARINO BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA JAPAN SAUDI ARABIA BOTSWANA JORDAN SENEGAL BRAZIL KAZAKHSTAN SERBIA BRUNEI DARUSSALAM KENYA SEYCHELLES BULGARIA KOREA, REPUBLIC OF SIERRA LEONE BURKINA FASO KUWAIT SINGAPORE BURUNDI KYRGYZSTAN SLOVAKIA CAMBODIA LAO PEOPLE’S DEMOCRATIC SLOVENIA CAMEROON REPUBLIC SOUTH AFRICA CANADA LATVIA SPAIN CENTRAL AFRICAN LEBANON SRI LANKA REPUBLIC LESOTHO SUDAN CHAD LIBERIA SWEDEN CHILE LIBYA CHINA LIECHTENSTEIN SWITZERLAND COLOMBIA LITHUANIA SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC COMOROS LUXEMBOURG TAJIKISTAN CONGO MADAGASCAR THAILAND COSTA RICA MALAWI TOGO CÔTE D’IVOIRE MALAYSIA TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO CROATIA MALI TUNISIA CUBA MALTA TURKEY CYPRUS MARSHALL ISLANDS TURKMENISTAN CZECH REPUBLIC MAURITANIA UGANDA DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC MAURITIUS UKRAINE OF THE CONGO MEXICO UNITED ARAB EMIRATES DENMARK MONACO UNITED KINGDOM OF DJIBOUTI MONGOLIA GREAT BRITAIN AND DOMINICA MONTENEGRO NORTHERN IRELAND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOROCCO UNITED REPUBLIC ECUADOR MOZAMBIQUE OF TANZANIA EGYPT MYANMAR UNITED STATES OF AMERICA EL SALVADOR NAMIBIA URUGUAY ERITREA NEPAL UZBEKISTAN ESTONIA NETHERLANDS VANUATU ESWATINI NEW ZEALAND VENEZUELA, BOLIVARIAN ETHIOPIA NICARAGUA REPUBLIC OF FIJI NIGER VIET NAM FINLAND NIGERIA YEMEN FRANCE NORTH MACEDONIA ZAMBIA GABON NORWAY ZIMBABWE The Agency’s Statute was approved on 23 October 1956 by the Conference on the Statute of the IAEA held at United Nations Headquarters, New York; it entered into force on 29 July 1957. The Headquarters of the Agency are situated in Vienna. Its principal objective is “to accelerate and enlarge the contribution of atomic energy to peace, health and prosperity throughout the world’’. IAEA-TECDOC-1962 ASSESSING NATIONAL ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF NUCLEAR PROGRAMMES FINAL REPORT OF A COORDINATED RESEARCH PROJECT INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY VIENNA, 2021 COPYRIGHT NOTICE All IAEA scientific and technical publications are protected by the terms of the Universal Copyright Convention as adopted in 1952 (Berne) and as revised in 1972 (Paris). The copyright has since been extended by the World Intellectual Property Organization (Geneva) to include electronic and virtual intellectual property. Permission to use whole or parts of texts contained in IAEA publications in printed or electronic form must be obtained and is usually subject to royalty agreements. Proposals for non-commercial reproductions and translations are welcomed and considered on a case-by-case basis. Enquiries should be addressed to the IAEA Publishing Section at: Marketing and Sales Unit, Publishing Section International Atomic Energy Agency Vienna International Centre PO Box 100 1400 Vienna, Austria fax: +43 1 26007 22529 tel.: +43 1 2600 22417 email: [email protected] www.iaea.org/publications For further information on this publication, please contact: Planning and Economic Studies Section International Atomic Energy Agency Vienna International Centre PO Box 100 1400 Vienna, Austria Email: [email protected] © IAEA, 2021 Printed by the IAEA in Austria July 2021 IAEA Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Names: International Atomic Energy Agency. Title: Assessing national economic effects of nuclear programmes : final report of a coordinated research project / International Atomic Energy Agency. Description: Vienna : International Atomic Energy Agency, 2021. | Series: IAEA TECDOC series, ISSN 1011–4289 ; no. 1962 | Includes bibliographical references. Identifiers: IAEAL 21-01420 | ISBN 978-92-0-117321-8 (paperback : alk. paper) | ISBN 978-92-0-117221-1 (pdf) Subjects: LCSH: Nuclear energy — Economic aspects. | Economic impact analysis. | Nuclear energy — International cooperation. FOREWORD Demand for clean, low carbon, sustainable energy continues to grow worldwide. Many countries consider nuclear power an important part of their response to the global energy and climate change challenge. An increasing number of IAEA Member States are considering adding nuclear power to their electricity generation portfolio or extending their current nuclear generation capacity to meet their electricity needs. The IAEA supports Member States with nuclear power programmes, as well as those that have decided or are planning to adopt nuclear power, in various ways. It also provides information for broader audiences engaged in energy, environmental and economic policy making. Introducing or extending a national nuclear power programme raises a range of economic and financing issues. The decision to invest in a nuclear power plant has impacts that go beyond the project itself and even beyond the energy system boundaries. Energy investments in general, and nuclear energy investments in particular, tend to stimulate other economic sectors, such as construction, manufacturing and services, thus generating economic growth and creating new employment throughout the economy. It is therefore advisable to conduct a macroeconomic impact assessment to better understand how different technologies might affect a country’s economy. The IAEA encourages Member States to consider the compatibility of the potential impacts of a nuclear power programme with the country’s overall goals for socioeconomic development. In addition to studies on energy demand and supply options, this requires macroeconomic assessment of the impacts of nuclear power on the national economy, measured by changes in gross domestic product, employment and other macroeconomic indicators. In response to the growing number of Member State requests for assistance in this area, the IAEA developed the Extended Input–Output Model for Sustainable Power Generation (EMPOWER) to support macroeconomic impact analysis. It also initiated the coordinated research project entitled Assessing the National and Regional Economic Effects of Nuclear Programmes to support research teams in interested Member States in applying EMPOWER in their national studies of the economic impacts of nuclear power programmes. This publication presents the outcomes of the coordinated research project. It provides a short description of the new IAEA model, presents concise summaries of its applications and the results produced by participating research teams, and summarizes the general insights drawn from the national studies. The publication illustrates the state of the art of assessing macroeconomic impacts of nuclear energy programmes using an innovative input–output model and other analytical tools adopted by the national teams. It is expected to support further the application of advanced models in more countries to improve the understanding of the macroeconomic and sectoral impacts of building and operating nuclear power plants. The IAEA wishes to thank the experts involved in the research teams in participating Member States for their contributions. The IAEA officer responsible for this publication was V. Alexeeva of the Division of Planning, Information and Knowledge Management. EDITORIAL NOTE This publication has been prepared from the original material as submitted by the contributors and has not been edited by the editorial staff of the IAEA. The views expressed remain the responsibility of the contributors and do not necessarily represent the views of the IAEA or its Member States. Neither the IAEA nor its Member States assume any responsibility for consequences which may arise from the use of this publication. This publication does not address questions of responsibility, legal or otherwise, for acts or omissions on the part of any person. The use of particular designations of countries or territories does not imply any judgement by the publisher, the IAEA, as to the legal status of such countries or territories, of their authorities and institutions or of the delimitation of their boundaries. The mention of names of specific companies or products (whether or not indicated as registered) does not imply any intention to infringe proprietary rights, nor should it be construed as an endorsement or recommendation on the part of the IAEA. The authors are responsible for having obtained the necessary permission for the IAEA to reproduce, translate or use material from sources already protected by copyrights. The IAEA has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external or third party Internet web sites referred to in this publication and does not guarantee that any content on such web sites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate. CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................... 1 1.1. BACKGROUND