Evaluation Department Evaluation of Norwegian Development Support to Zambia (1991 - 2005) Evaluation Report 4/2007 Norad Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation P.O. Box 8034 Dep, NO-0030 Oslo Ruseløkkveien 26, Oslo, Norway Phone: +47 22 24 20 30 Fax: +47 22 24 20 31 Layout and print: Lobo Media AS ISBN: 978-82-7548-273-8 Evaluation of Norwegian Development Support to Zambia (1991 - 2005) Oxford Policy Management February 2008 “Responsibility for the contents and presentation of findings and recommendations rest with the evaluation team. The views and opinions expressed in the report do not necessarily correspond with those of Norad”. 4 Evaluation of Norwegian Development Support to Zambia (1991 - 2005) Preface Zambia was chosen for the first country evaluation in years of Norwegian development cooperation. It is a country that has been a recipient of Norwegian development aid since the seventies. When the Norwegian embassy in Lusaka was approached about the study, the bold question from the embassy was: How could it be explained, that after 40 years of development assistance, the ordinary Zambian was as poor as he or she had been at the time of independence? Thus the very raison d’être of development aid was being questioned. Our response was to use power analysis as a basis for explaining progress or lack of it in Zambia. The main question the consultants were faced with was: How do power relations within Zambia and amongst the donor community affect the scope for achieving pro-poor outcomes through development cooperation? We believe that Oxford Policy Management has produced a consistent, lucid and well-written report, which goes a long way in responding to the main issues raised in the terms of reference. The report makes sobering reading. The neopatrimonial nature of the Zambian state has limited the attention paid to the poor by government and donors. The harmonisation of donors may have reinforced this lack of focus on the poor by concentrating too much on the government parties at the national level. Donors, including Norway, have been too much preoccupied with technical issues in their dialogue with Zambia. In the nineties, the actual content of the economic policies were often considered to be beyond argument. This added to the depolitisation of the cooperation. On the results of Norwegian development cooperation the picture is not unambiguous. Norway is seen as a flexible and generous donor, but not too rigorous concerning results. Norway scores well on relevance; our support is in line with Zambia’s own development goals and plans. On effectiveness it is more mixed. In some respects, Norwegian aid has performed well. That relates in particular to institution and capacity building. But that has come in some cases at the cost of impact on poverty and sustainability. The analytical tool used in the report – the neopatrimonial model – is not uncontroversial, although widely used by political scientists in analysing African affairs. The evaluation team concludes that the model is appropriate for Zambia, but that it has to be applied within a dynamic context. Positive signs in the Zambian society are part of this dynamic context. The report finds clear indications of change, and states that democratic consolidation is underway, although the process is still fragile. Maybe the donors’ efforts to help rectify the economy in the nineties and the dialogue on political issues later have started to bear fruit in recent years. The Evaluation Department believes that this report will be a valuable contribution to the debate about future development cooperation with African countries. There is no reason to believe that the general findings are unique to Zambia. Asbjørn Eidhammer Director of Evaluation 5 Evaluation of Norwegian Development Support to Zambia (1991 - 2005) 6 Evaluation of Norwegian Development Support to Zambia (1991 - 2005) Acknowledgements This evaluation was carried out for the Evaluation Department of Norad, and under the guidance of an Evaluation Reference Group. The evaluation team would like to thank both for the support received and the timely comments on interim and draft reports. The Royal Norwegian Embassy gave assistance in identifying and copying documents, particularly for the case studies and the project analysis, for which the team is grateful. Much of this work had to be carried out over the summer period, and staff sometimes had to stand in for their colleagues on leave. We appreciate the extra effort that has been taken. We interviewed stakeholders in Norway and Zambia, in Lusaka and in the provinces. We would like to thank the people who were generous with their time, who helped us in the field, and who organised focus group discussions for us. In particular we appreciate the time rural people spent with us answering our questions. Thanks to you all. 7 Evaluation of Norwegian Development Support to Zambia (1991 - 2005) 8 Evaluation of Norwegian Development Support to Zambia (1991 - 2005) Contents Acknowledgements 7 Abbreviations 10 Executive Summary 13 1 Introduction 18 1.1 Background 18 2 Analytical Framework 20 2.1 The DAC Evaluation Criteria 20 2.2 Political Economy Analysis 21 2.3 Methodology 22 3 Power Structures 26 3.1 Characteristics of a Neopatrimonial State 26 3.2 Decentralisation in Zambia 27 3.3 Decision-making, Appointments and Accountability 32 3.4 State and Society 33 3.5 Conclusion 36 4 International Donor Assistance 37 4.1 Trends in ODA to Zambia 37 4.2 Donor - Zambia Policy Dialogue 39 4.3 Donor Engagement with Power Structures 41 4.4 Assessments of the Impact of ODA in Zambia 42 4.5 Conclusions 43 5 Norwegian Development Cooperation with Zambia 44 5.1 Trends in Norwegian Development Cooperation over the Period 44 5.2 The Domestic Context 47 5.3 Norwegian Engagement with the Zambian Government 49 5.4 Norwegian Approaches to Economic and Political Reform in Zambia in the 1990s 50 5.5 Modalities of Assistance 54 5.6 Conclusions 56 6 Development Assistance, Power Structures and Poverty Reduction 57 6.1 Poverty in Zambia 57 6.2 Power Relations and Poverty 57 6.3 Civil Society, Poverty Reduction and the Discursive Construction of a ‘Depoliticised’ Economic Sphere 58 6.3.1 Privatization in the Copperbelt 60 6.3.2 Depoliticising Poverty Reduction 61 6.4 Contribution of Projects to Poverty Reduction 62 6.5 Conclusions 63 7 Assessment of Norwegian Assistance 64 7.1 How Norway is Perceived as a Donor 64 7.2 Relevance of Norwegian Support 65 7.3 Effectiveness of Norwegian Support 65 7.4 Impact and Sustainability of Norwegian Support 66 7.5 Conclusion 66 8 Conclusions and Future Directions 68 8.1 Conclusions 68 8.2 Recommendations 70 Bibliography 72 Annex A: Terms of Reference 78 Annex B: Persons Interviewed 90 Annex C: Zambian Economic Development Strategies and Power Relations 95 Annex D: Phase 1 Projects 102 Annex E: Case Studies Executive Summaries 121 Annex F: Data Annex 133 9 Evaluation of Norwegian Development Support to Zambia (1991 - 2005) Abbreviations ABF Agribusiness Forum ACC Anti-Corruption Commission AM Agreed Minutes ASIP Agriculture Sector Investment Programme ASNP Agricultural Support to Northern Province BESSIP Basic Education Sub-sector Investment Programme CBO Community Based Organisation CCJDP Catholic Commission for Justice, Development and Peace CCZ Council of Churches in Zambia CFU Commercial Farmers’ Union CG Consultative Group CIDA Canadian International Development Agency CRC Constitutional Reform Commission CSO Civil Society Organisation CSPR Civil Society for Poverty Reduction DAC Development Assistance Committee DFID Department for International Development, U.K. DRC Democratic Republic of Congo ECZ Electoral Commission Zambia ESAF Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility FBO Faith Based Organisation FFTUZ Federation of Free Trade Unions, Zambia FNDP Fifth National Development Plan FODEP Foundation for Democratic Process GBS General Budget Support GNI Gross National Income GRZ Government of the Republic of Zambia HDI Human Development Index HIP Harmonisation in Practice HIPC Highly Indebted Poor Country Initiative HPI Human Poverty Index HRC Human Rights Commission IESR Institute for Economic and Social Research IMP International Monetary Fund JASZ Joint Assistance Strategy Zambia JCTR Jesuit Centre for Theological Reflection 10 Evaluation of Norwegian Development Support to Zambia (1991 - 2005) KK Kenneth Kaunda KS Kommunesektorens Intresse og Arbeidsgiverorganisasjon (Norwegian Association of Local and Regional Authorities) LAZ Law Association Zambia LGAZ Local Government Association Zambia LIRDP Luangwa Integrated Rural Development Programme LO Landsorganisasjonen Norge (Norwegian Confederation of Trade Unions) MACO Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives MAFF Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Fisheries MDG Millennium Development Goals MMD Movement for Multiparty Democracy MoU Memorandum of Understanding MTEF Medium Term Expenditure Framework NCA Norwegian Church Aid NGO Non-governmental Organisation NGO-CC NGO Coordinating Committee NOK Norwegian Krone NORAD Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation NRDC Natural Resource Development College NZTT NRDC/ ZEGA Training Trust OAG Office of the Auditor General ODA Overseas Development Assistance OVC Orphans and vulnerable children PAGE Programme for the Advancement of Girls’ Education PE Political economy PEM Public Expenditure Management PEMFAR Public Expenditure Management and Accountability Review PRA Participatory rural appraisal PRBS Poverty Reduction Budget Support PRGF Poverty Reduction