Version 12 WANTINGTOANDGETTINGTOSTUDYBUSINESSSTUDIESOR ECONOMICSATSCHOOL PeterDavies1,3 and MarcoG.Ercolani2,3[correspondingauthor] 1 [email protected], School of Education, University of Birmingham 2 [email protected], Birmingham Business School, University of Birmingham 3 Centre for Higher Education Equity and Access, University of Birmingham Keywords Educationaleconomics,humancapital,wagedifferentials,EconomicsandBusinessStudies Abstract Wepresentresultsfromuniquesurveyon3,279schoolstudents’subjectpreferencesand subsequentchoiceofsubjectstostudybetweentheagesof16and18.Wefocus,inparticular, onthedecisiontostudyEconomicsorBusinessStudies.Wefindschoollevelandstudentlevel effectsonsubjectchoices.Ourevidencesuggestsschoolsinfluencesubjectchoicesthrough(a) whetherschoolofferssubjectand(b)differencesbetweenstudents’declaredintentionsand actualchoices.Weinterprettheseresultsinthecontextofcompetitionbetweenschoolsand expressedpreferencesofresearchintensiveuniversitiesregardingso-called‘hard’and‘soft’ subjects. Thefollowingdatawerecollectedinouruniquesurvey:(i)Beliefsaboutgraduatesalariesby subjectarea,strengthofpreferencestowardsdifferentsubjects,motivationtowardschoiceof subject;and(ii)actualchoiceofsubjectstostudyinthefinaltwoyearsofschooling.Background datawerecollecteddirectlyfromstudentsandmatchedwithrangeofdataavailablefromthe NationalPupilDatabase. 1 Version 12 1. INTRODUCTION Subjectchoicesinschoolsmatterforfutureemployment,socialmobilityandthebalanceof knowledgeandskillsavailablefortheeconomy.WhilstonlythestudyofMathematicsatschool hasbeenshowntobeassociatedwithhigherfutureincomeintheUKandtheUS(Levine and Zimmerman 1995, Dolton and Vignoles 2002, Arcidiacono 2004, Rose and Betts 2004)ǡthesubjects whichstudentschoosetostudyinsecondaryschoolssetthemontrajectoriestowardsdifferent universities,differentdegreesubjectsanddifferentemploymentprospects(Chevalier2011). Schools’freedomtochoosewhichsubjectstoofferandstudents’freedomtochoosewhich subjectstostudyvariesconsiderablybetweencountriesandwithincountriesovertime.This hassubstantialimplicationsfortheroleofeducationinsociety.Forexample,intheUSstudents facechoicesbetweenbundlesofsubjectsindifferentcurriculumtracksleadingtodifferent collegeandnon-collegetrajectories(ZietzandJoshi2005).IntheUK,socialmobilityis associatedwithsubjectchoicethroughattendanceat‘elite’RussellGroupuniversities. AttendingRussellGroupuniversityisassociatedwithachievingemploymentinhighstatus professionandwithhigherearnings(SuttonTrust2004,Boliver2013,Greggetal.2013).The RussellGroupofuniversitieshaspublishedadvicetoschoolstudentsaboutwhichsubjectsto study. Therelativedifficultyofdifferentsubjectshasreceivedconsiderableattentionindebateabout subjectchoices(CEM2008).Itissometimesargued(e.g.Skelton2012)thatalladvancedlevel (A-level)subjectsshouldbeequallydifficult.Inlightofthis,in2014,theexaminationsregulator inEnglandannouncedreductioninthenumberofsubjecttitles,partlyonthegroundsthatA- levelsshouldbe‘robustandinternationallycomparable’(OfQUAL2014,p.11).Oneconsequence ofthisreviewwasthat‘EconomicsandBusinessStudies’wasdiscontinuedascombined subject.bigadvantageofstrictcomparabilitybetweensubjectsisthatitmakesiteasierto compareschools.Thisobjectivehasalsopromptedcalls(e.g.Anderson2104)fortheA-level choicestobereplacedbybaccalaureatecurriculuminwhichstudentsarerequiredtostudy rangeoftraditionalsubjectswhichwouldexcludeso-called‘soft’subjects.Asidefromwhether strictcomparabilityisachievable,thereisalsoquestionaboutwhetheritisdesirable. Restrictingchoicereducestheopportunityforstudentstostudysubjectsinwhichtheyhave relativeadvantage(Daviesetal.2009).cullof‘soft’subjectsmaybeproblematicfromthe perspectiveofwideningparticipationinhighereducation.Studentswhoachievedminimum gradesforuniversityentrancein‘soft’subjectsarelesslikelytoachievethisstandardin‘hard’ subjects(WilkinsandMeeran2012).Studentswhofallintothiscategoryaremorelikelythan otherstudentstocomefrom‘under-represented’groupsinhighereducation. Ourstudypresentsbroadcomparisonbetweenchoicesof‘hard’and‘soft’choiceswith specificfocusontwosubjects,EconomicsandBusinessStudies.EconomicsandBusiness Studiesprovideusefulpointofcomparison(asnotedinpreviousstudiessuchasWilkinsand Meeran2012).First,theRussellGroup(2011)hascategorisedBusinessStudiesas‘soft’ subjectandEconomicsas‘hard’subject.Second,thetwosubjectshaveoverlappingcontentto theextentthatanadvancedlevelqualificationhasbeenavailablein‘EconomicsandBusiness Studies’.Third,eachofEconomicsandBusinessStudiesisofferedassubjectbysome,butnot all,schools(Jinetal.2013).Thisenablesinsightsintotheroleofschoolsinshapingstudents’ choices. 2 Version 12 Thestudybuildsonpreviousresearchinseveralways.Firstwehavedataonstudents’intended subjectchoicesandtheiractualchoicesandthisenablesananalysisofdifferencesbetween intentionsandoutcomes.Nopreviousstudyhasreportedthiscomparison.Second,wehave uniquedataonstudents’expectedandactualGeneralCertificateinSecondaryExamination (GCSE)gradesinMathematicsandEnglish.Thisallowsustoidentifyassociationsbetween unexpectedexaminationresultsandthedifferencebetweenintendedandactualsubjects studied.Third,sincewehave48schoolsinoursampleweareabletoexaminedifferences betweenschoolsinwayswhicharenotpossiblewithstudiesincludingonlyfewschools.The nextsectionreviewstheoryandevidenceabouttheroleofschoolsinshapingstudents’choice ofsubjects.Thisfollowedbyanaccountofmethod,resultsandourconclusions. 2. ADVANCEDLEVELSUBJECTDIFFICULTYANDINDIVIDUALCHOICE Schoolexitexaminationsprovidethecredentialsonwhichapplicationstouniversitycourses arejudgedinmanycountries.InEnglandthesejudgementsaremadeonthebasisoftariff systemwhichawardspointstogradesachievedindifferenttypesofexamination.Discussionof applicationstouniversityislargelyconductedintermsofgradesachievedinA-levelcoursesfor whichthe2014tariffpointswere:A*(140),(120),(100),(80),(60),E(40).Most studentssitexaminationsinthreeA-levels.Studentsmaximisetheirchanceofentryinto universitybymaximisingtheirA-levelgradepoints.Aswellasenablinggreaterchoicebetween institutions,highergradesenablestudentstoreachentrancecriteriasetbyselective institutions.Forexample,coursesatRussellGroupuniversitiestypicallyrequiredatleastgrades ABB(320points)(RussellGroup2011).WhilstHussainetal.(2009)reportedsmalladditional wagepremiumforgraduatesfromeliteuniversitiesintheUK,WalkerƬZhu(2013)findno differencebetweenwagepremiatograduatesofdifferenttypesofuniversity. TheproblemforeachstudentiistomaximisehisorhertotaltarifffromthreeA-levelgrades: max ଷ ௘ ௜௝ ෍௝ୀଵ ܩ where = ( , , Ȍand ௘ ௧ିଵ ௜௝ ௜௝ ௜௝ ௝ isܩstudent݂ ܣi’spreviousܵܧ ܦattainmentinsubject ௧ିଵ ௜௝ ܣ isstudenti’sself-efficacy(confidence)insubjectj ܵܧ௜௝isthedifficultyofsubjectjrelativetoothersubjects. Studentsܦ௝ willchoosesubjectsinwhichtheyhaverelativeadvantage(confirmedbyDavieset al.2009)withtheprovisothatallstudentswillbediscouragedfromchoosingsubjectsinwhich itishardertoachievetopgrades.Coeetal.(2008)revieweddifferentestimatesofthedifficulty ofschoolsubjects.Theyfoundthat,atA-level,scienceandmodernforeignlanguagesare relativelyhardandthatmostappliedsubjectssuchascommunicationstudiesandtheatre studiesarerelativelyeasier.Theyalsoreportedthatthesedifferenceshavebeenstableover time. 3 Version 12 However,theRussellGroupuniversities(2011,2013)havealsoexpressedtheirpreferencefor somesubjectsratherthanothers.Theydescribedtheirpreferredsubjectsas‘facilitating’.They distinguishedthesesubjectsfromothersubjectswhichwere‘notfacilitating’,butequallyhard andothersubjectswhichwere‘soft’.Althoughin2013laterdroppedtheterm‘soft’,theirthree- foldclassificationremainedthesame: Hardtraditional(‘facilitating’):Biology,Chemistry,EnglishLiterature,Geography, History,Mathematics,ModernForeignLanguages,Physics. Hardnon-traditional(butnotfacilitating):Classics,ComputerScience,Economics,Law, Music,Non-EuropeanLanguages,OtherScience,PhilosophyandReligion,Psychology. SoftǣArt,Beauty,BusinessStudies,ChildDevelopment,DesignandTechnology,Health andSocialCare,MediaStudies,PerformingArts,Photography,PhysicalEducation, Sociology,StudySkills,TravelandTourism. Consequently,studentswhowishtoapplytothemostselectiveuniversitiesfacefurther constraintintheirsubjectchoices.If η320,thenstudentwillmaximisetheir universitychoicebystudyingatleasttwoଷ ‘facilitating௘ subjects’ifthisdoesnotprejudicetheir σ௫ୀଵ ܩ௜௝ expectationofachievingtotaltariffofatleast320.Otherwisetheyshouldsimplyaimto maximisetheirgrades,withtheimplicationthatonaveragetheyarelesslikelythanother studentstochoose‘facilitating’subjects. InJuly2012TheDepartmentforEducation(2014)announcedthatitwouldbeincluding measureofschoolperformanceintermsoftheproportionofstudentsachievinggradesAABin ‘facilitating’subjects.Thisintroducedstrongincentiveforschoolstoencouragehighachieving studentstooptforfacilitatingsubjects.Thisannouncementcameafterthestudentsinthis samplehaddeclaredtheirintentionsandafterschoolshaddeterminedtheircurriculumfor 2012/13. 3. SCHOOLEFFECTSINSUBJECTCHOICE AccordingtoreviewbyJinetal.(2013)relativelylittleoftheliteratureonsubjectchoicehas consideredschooleffects.Inthissectionweconsidertwoprocessesthroughwhichschoolsmay affectsubjectchoice:theprivateversusstateschooleffectandthecompetitionbetweenstate schoolseffect. differencebetweenprivateschoolsandstateschoolsarisesfromdifferencebetween schools’objectives.Privateschoolsfocusontheproportionoftheirstudentswhoprogressto eliteuniversities(Dunneetal.2013,Jones2013)whilststateschoolsfocusontheexamination gradesachievedbytheirstudents(Daviesetal2002,Wilsonetal.2006).relativelyhigh proportionofprivatelyeducatedstudentsattendeliteuniversitiesinEngland(SuttonTrust