Demographic, economic, and growth initiative analysis: Big Bend Region of Florida For: The Conservation Fund May 2015 PO Box 6435 Fernandina Beach, FL 32035 Tel (904) 277-9765 Executive Summary The Big Bend region of Florida--Jefferson, Taylor, Dixie, and Levy counties—is a land of working forests, farms, rivers, springs, estuaries, and an extensive Gulf coastline. The people of this rural region rely more on the natural resources for their livelihood and recreation than most places in Florida. An investigation of the region’s population and economy based on secondary data and bolstered by on-site visits and interviews of local officials and state economic professionals found a region rich in the traditions of “Old Florida” but struggling to keep pace with rapid changes and growth in other areas of the state. Among key findings: The area is very rural with a declining population that is characterized by lower incomes, lower education levels, net out-migration, and a comparatively older population, relative to the rest of the state. The economic analysis demonstrated the central role that natural resource industries play in the prosperity of the Big Bend region and its residents. The health and continued productivity of the natural resource base, especially the working forests and its waters, are critical to the region’s future. The region seeks growth but needs to consider creative approaches to make fuller use of available resources. Mature industries such as farming, forestry, and natural resource-based manufacturing must continually innovate to stay competitive. They also must sustain the health of the natural resources upon which they rely to ensure continued economic growth. Nature-based and experiential tourism can also capitalize on the rich natural resources so long as they are adequately protected, accessible, and the appropriate tourism infrastructure exists. Both leaders and residents have a strong appreciation for the unique nature of their region and are protective of its cultural heritage. During interviews, county leaders expressed broad support for maintaining current protection and conservation of the region's natural assets as the basis for long-term economic growth and sense of place. This sentiment was echoed by representatives of the area’s timber industry in conversations specifically about the forest resources. County leaders identified the need for balance between growth and conservation: maintaining existing natural resource areas to support the economy and quality of life for residents and using other areas for compatible development. The approach recognizes the need for a multi-layered strategy for economic growth. Each county features a distinct mix of natural resources upon which they are reliant. Some counties benefit to a greater extent from their abundant forests, while others benefit more from their farmlands or access to the Gulf Coast. The future of economic growth is then by default not a “one size fits all” approach. Efforts instead might be best served by calling upon collaborative and innovative approaches, leveraging the strengths and opportunities within each county as part of an overarching regional strategy. ii Table of Contents Executive Summary ..........................................................................................................................ii Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 1 Approach ......................................................................................................................................... 3 Demographic analysis ................................................................................................................ 3 Economic analysis ...................................................................................................................... 3 Policy analysis ............................................................................................................................. 4 Findings ........................................................................................................................................... 6 Demographic analysis ................................................................................................................ 6 Population ............................................................................................................................... 6 Age .......................................................................................................................................... 8 Education ................................................................................................................................ 9 Income & poverty .................................................................................................................. 11 Race ....................................................................................................................................... 12 Gender ................................................................................................................................... 13 Economic analysis .................................................................................................................... 14 Industry trends and contributions ......................................................................................... 14 Employment trends .......................................................................................................... 15 Entrepreneurial activity .................................................................................................... 24 Economic drivers and impacts .............................................................................................. 27 Location quotients ............................................................................................................ 28 Shift share analysis ............................................................................................................ 29 Trade patterns................................................................................................................... 37 Employment and output analysis ..................................................................................... 42 Regional economic multipliers .......................................................................................... 44 Regional economic impacts .............................................................................................. 45 A Summary Snapshot of the Natural Resource-based Industries ......................................... 49 Farming ............................................................................................................................. 51 Aquaculture ....................................................................................................................... 53 Forestry and forest products manufacturing ................................................................... 54 Policy analysis ........................................................................................................................... 56 Summary of community economic development leader interviews ..................................... 56 iii Regional strength, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) analysis ...................... 61 Ideas for Growth ........................................................................................................................... 63 Forestry, Timber, and Forest Products: ................................................................................. 64 Tourism ................................................................................................................................. 65 Agriculture, including Aquaculture ....................................................................................... 66 Commercial and Recreational Fisheries ................................................................................ 67 Education, Job Training and Entrepreneurial Development ................................................. 68 Rural development programs & initiatives ........................................................................... 69 Looking Ahead: What’s Next? ....................................................................................................... 73 References .................................................................................................................................... 74 Appendices .................................................................................................................................... 76 A. Land cover types by county ............................................................................................. 77 B. Methodology for estimating economic contributions .................................................... 81 C. Glossary of Industries ....................................................................................................... 83 iv List of Tables Table 1. Population change by county between 2010 and 2013 .................................................. 7 Table 2. Household income by state and county in 2005 and 2013 ............................................ 11 Table 3. Composition of private sector employment in Florida and the Big Bend, 2012 ........... 15 Table 4. Industry location quotients in the Big Bend ..................................................................