Shaping Australia’s Future Through the lens: The tipping point REPORT 2018 FOREWORDS The Tipping Point is an initiative of the Planning Institute of The first Commonwealth government Intergenerational Australia (PIA) to advance a national debate on the future of Report published in 2002 predicted that Australia’s population Australia so our way of life and current standards of living are would surpass 25 million in 2042. In fact, the Australian Bureau maintained for future generations. of Statistics has estimated that our population surpassed 25 million on 7 August 2018 – some 24 years ahead of the It follows Through the lens – Megatrends shaping our future 2002 prediction. (Journey towards 50 million) released by PIA in May 2016 which outlined a range of megatrends and population challenges to be The last one million people were added in just 30 months. That addressed as Australia’s population grows towards 50 million. It also equates to having to accommodate nationally 400,000 new residents called on Commonwealth government to lead the development of a year. At an average household occupancy of 2.6 persons, that a coordinated response to address these challenges through the translates to 430 new dwellings required to be constructed every day. development of a National Settlement Strategy. Decisions about where and how to house this growth need to be The recent release of the House of Representatives report on the made within a national context, not on an ad hoc basis by the states Australian Government's role in the development of cities – Building and territories. That is just one reason why the Planning Institute Up and Moving Out supported PIA’s submissions, including our call of Australia (PIA) is advocating for the preparation of a National for the development of a National Settlement Strategy. It’s crucial Settlement Strategy. that these recommendations are now adopted and implemented to In recent years, around 60 per cent of our population growth has plan for our future and protect our unique liveability. been due to overseas migration while only 40 per cent has been due Whilst there are many ways to judge liveability, one thing is certain, to births exceeding deaths. Our immigration intake is overseen by the Australian cities regularly feature towards the top of a range of Commonwealth government, and it is the Commonwealth government liveability indexes. We are, however, at the tipping point – our that the nation should be looking to for guidance and leadership in communities are feeling the pressure like never before. terms of the preparation of the National Settlement Strategy. Instead of having an informed debate on how we should address PIA is therefore promoting that the Commonwealth government these challenges and develop a vision for the future of Australia, the should act as a facilitator and bring the states and territories together debate is often illogical and ill-informed. to jointly formulate a National Settlement Strategy with input from all relevant stakeholders. That includes local government, the private A debate which addresses our changing demographics and equity sector, not-for-profit organisations and the Australian community. of access to homes, jobs and education – whilst planning for megatrends – is needed. The Commonwealth government has a responsibility to establish the framework for how Australia tackles the challenges being presented Australia's politicians should embrace the opportunities the future by global megatrends and how we enhance the sustainability and holds, and map out a plan which is not at the mercy of our short liveability of our cities and regions. The National Settlement electoral cycles. As Australia's trusted voice on planning, PIA Strategy is that framework. stands ready to support and guide our leaders on this journey. Brendan Nelson RPIA (Fellow) Steve O'Connor RPIA (Fellow) NATIONAL PRESIDENT NATIONAL PRESIDENT – ELECT 2 THROUGH THE LENS: THE TIPPING POINT TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5 Jobs 28 1 What will Australia’s future jobs look like and How a National Settlement Strategy would help 8 where will they be located? 29 First steps 8 Are we planning for future jobs growth? 29 Infrastructure 30 LIVEABILITY: THE TIPPING POINT 13 Are infrastructure needs tied to our planning for growth? 30 Managing Australia’s growth 15 How do we currently plan and prioritise major infrastructure? 31 2 No consistent national direction on growth 16 What infrastructure and services would be needed National urban policies benefit comparable countries 17 for growth? 31 What needs to happen 31 Who is accountable for managing long-term growth 18 in cities and regions? Environment 32 Are we strengthening our resilience? 33 CITY AND COMMUNITY SHAPERS 21 WHERE TO FROM HERE 35 Population 22 4 What population are we planning for? 22 A National Conversation 36 3 Where will it be located? 23 Simple Governance Changes 36 What will be its characteristics? 24 A Shared Strategy 38 Housing 26 Are we considering housing diversity? 26 Delivery 39 Are we supplying enough housing? 26 Is supply the sole driver of affordability? 27 ENDNOTES 40 Do our planning targets for housing align with population? 27 ROLE OF THE PLANNING PROFESSION 41 Are we utilising our housing effectively? 27 PIA acknowledges the Traditional Custodians of the land and pays respect to Elders past, present and future. We honour Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples’ unique cultural and spiritual relationships to place. THROUGH THE LENS: THE TIPPING POINT 3 4 THROUGH THE LENS: THE TIPPING POINT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY THROUGH THE LENS: THE TIPPING POINT 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Our states, territories and local In August 2018, Australia reached the halfway The litmus test of change in liveability for most governments are trying to plan for point on its journey towards 50 million – a milestone Australians is equity of access and fairness in housing, expected to be passed late in this century. Like all employment and education, along with the protection a future where we all have different journeys, there will be challenges, opportunities of the environment and character of the places we call views about our common future. and rewards along the way. home. As foundations of our society, they are often tested and highlighted during periods of accelerated growth. Our collective coverage of plans Some are already becoming apparent. Expensive housing, road congestion, poorly Australia has cities and regions that are admired the looks like a patchwork quilt. networked public transport, environmental threats, world over – energetic, innovative and diverse. We have and overcrowded schools and hospitals are now a booming tertiary education and services sector, and – Darren Crombie RPIA, commonplace in our largest cities. a reputation as a clean and green agricultural producer. PIA Board Member We’re well placed and located to capitalise on the Asian Urban sprawl built on the back of a car-centric suburbia Century. But we lack a national plan to protect the things has left many people isolated from community facilities we value in a rapidly changing world where jurisdictional and work. And while Sydney and Melbourne head boundaries mean less and globalisation is the new norm. towards global megacity status, some of our regions are going backwards, hastening the development of a Australian cities often rank highly in international liveability two-tiered Australia. indexes, but there are emerging trends that need to be addressed to ensure our cities’ reputation for liveability In a world where cities and regions compete across and amenity is maintained and enhanced. national borders, it is vital that Australia pursues every avenue to sustain and improve the productivity and The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and liveability of its cities and regions. Development (OECD) Better Life Index 2017 found the number of Australians experiencing job strain is Analysis by PIA of all 57 regional plans across Australia increasing, and our work-life balance is among the worst suggests we are planning for a population of around of all OECD member nations. Long-term unemployment 39 million sometime before mid-century. has doubled since 2007, housing costs (as a proportion of disposable income) have risen, and Australia’s household debt levels are among the worst in the OECD. 6 THROUGH THE LENS: THE TIPPING POINT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY However, there is no consistency in how these plans A NATIONAL SETTLEMENT A national settlement plan address growth hotspots or respond to the factors STRATEGY WOULD PROVIDE would focus on how we identified in PIA’s 2016 report Through the lens – CONTEXT FOR QUESTIONS LIKE: Megatrends shaping our future. Nor is there a nationally grow, not how consistent view on what Australia should look like over • What is the scale of growth we are working towards, much we grow, and it the next 50 years. and in what time frame? would allow us to plan Strategic urban and regional planning largely falls to • What should be the future distribution of our population? beyond political and state and territory governments, and local government • What kind of jobs should we plan for? budgetary cycles. – despite the influence that federal government decision- making has on the growth and shape of every Australian • What infrastructure is needed and how do we pay for it? city. This imbalance fails to recognise the impact of – Philip Davies, former CEO of Commonwealth policies and investments on the country’s Infrastructure Australia. overall growth and urban development. As a result, Speech, 25 June 2018 federal government policy has become “spatially blind” and the Commonwealth is influencing the shape of our cities and regions unintentionally. There is a growing sense in Australia that we are at a tipping-point – that the liveability and functionality of our communities is being eroded. Surveys of popular issues consistently highlight living conditions, access to housing and work, and safety as key concerns across Australia.