DTZ Research PROPERTY TIMES Investors displayed a wait-and-see attitude Taipei Q1 2015 On the back of new supply, the vacancy rate for grade A office increased 1.6 percentage points to 8.9%. The citywide average rent was steady at NT$2,460 (US$79) per ping per month. Completion of several new buildings prompted 24 April 2015 occupiers to relocate from older premises to new properties in prime locations and with higher specifications. Contents Following the government’s introduction of a new property tax policy and proposed Economic overview 2 changes to transaction costs, the investment market in Neihu Technology Park Office 3 properties displayed a wait-and-see attitude. However, the main new supply in NHTP is in the Jiuzhong Section, which may put downward pressure on rental due Retail 4 to the large supply. Industrial 5 Investment market was slow in Q1 2015 with only one office building transaction Investment 6 recorded this quarter. Domestic policies on housing tax and the FSC’s control measures on real estate investment for insurance companies have cooled down the investment market significantly. Author Figure 1 Wendy Hsueh DTZ office index (2006 – 2017F) Head of Taipei Research +886 2 8788 3288 250 [email protected] 200 Contacts 150 Andrew Ness Head of Greater China Research 100 +852 2507 0779 [email protected] 50 2016F 0 2017F 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2012 2015 Fergus Hicks 2007 Global Head of Forecasting +44 (0)20 3296 2307 Office Rent Index Office Price Index [email protected] F=Forecast Source: DTZ Research www.dtz.com Property Times 1 Taipei Q1 2015 Economic overview Table 1 Taiwan's GDP in Q4 2014 increased by 3.35% y-o-y, reaching Economic indicators NT$4,226.07 bn (US$135.3bn) due to growth in domestic Indicator Period Unit Value Y-o-y demand (Table 1). The GDP growth rate is projected to be change 3.78% in 2015, and key factors to watch for the next quarter (%) include the time frame for any interest rate increases by the FED and changes in commodity prices. GDP Q4 2014 NT$ million 4,226,067 3.35 Total import January Aggregate export figures in January 2015 decreased by 2.1% NT$ million 646,000 0.90 month-on-month (m-o-m) and increased by 9.6% y-o-y, value 2015 reaching NT$798.50 bn (US$25.57bn). Electronics, machinery Total export January NT$ million 798,500 9.60 and optical products accounted for most of the increase, while value 2015 the decline in minerals and chemicals offset the growth. The Unemployment January aggregate import value also rose, by 0.90% y-o-y (Table 1). % 3.71% -0.31 pts rate 2015 The unemployment rate in January 2015 declined 0.31 of a percentage point y-o-y to 3.71%. The number of unemployed Consumer price January -- 102.29 -1.24 was down by 9,000 m-o-m due to the decrease in the number index 2015 of first-time job seekers (Table 1). January Visitor arrivals thousand 752.27 12.74 In January 2015, the CPI reached 102.29, declining by 1.24% 2015 m-o-m and by 0.94% y-o-y. Items showing the most significant January drop in price included oil, electricity, vegetables and clothing on Building units units 25,225 -23.20 promotional sale. However, eggs, fruit and natural gas saw 2015 increases, which offset the decrease (Table 1). Source: DGBAS of Executive Yuan In January 2015, total visitor arrivals reached 752,271, a y-o-y rise of 12.74%. Visitors from China made a strong contribution to the increase, accounting for 42.73% of the total and reaching 321,458, a y-o-y increase of 19.56% (Table 1). This month’s total indicator score for the Council for Economic Planning Development’s overall economic outlook increased from the 22 points of the previous month to 23. This was the positive result of empowered consumer spending due to the improvement in employment and a significant drop in oil prices. The overall market showed mild growth. Total property transaction volume in Taiwan reached 25,225 units in January 2015, decreasing by 16.31% m-o-m and 23.20% y-o-y. However, tax reform regarding residential property increased uncertainty in the market and several financial institutions’ risk control measures also kept the market on edge. Both of these factors caused a significant decline in transaction volume compared to the previous year. The m-o-m downward change was a result of the higher base period at the end of last year, when there was strong demand for trading up in housing. With northern Taiwan affected by the changing property tax policy, Taipei City and New Taipei City showed a decrease in transaction volume of 19.87% and 17.60% m-o-m respectively. The transaction volume in Taichung City and Kaohsiung City was also down, by 10.25% and 18.62%. www.dtz.com Property Times 2 Taipei Q1 2015 Office Table 2 This quarter, grade A office rents remained stable in most Grade A office market statistics districts and the citywide average rent was flat at NT$2,460 Change (US$79) per ping per month (Table 2). Vacancy Rent District q-o-q rate (%) (NT$/ping/month) Absorption of grade A office was steady despite new supply, (%) including Hua Nan Bank Headquarters Building and Hung- Sheng IFC Building, completion of which acted to raise the Western 2.8 2,120 0.0 vacancy rate by 1.6 percentage points to 8.9%. The highest Nanjing / take-up was 14,500 ping in Xinyi District, Hua Nan Bank taking Songjiang 1.3 1,980 0.0 occupancy of its self owned portion of Hua Nan Bank Headquarters Building with 13,600 ping accounted for much of Dunbei / the activity. Minsheng 14.5 2,290 1.3 To take advantage of the geographical advantage which office Dunnan 4.5 2,330 1.0 buildings derive from being situated close to metro stations, MRT is developing several office projects atop MRT stations, Xinyi 8.9 2,930 0.3 including Hung-Sheng IFC Building in MRT Nanjing Fuxing Station and Union Recreation Building in Xingtian Temple Overall 8.9 2,460 0.2 Station. As these projects have been well received by the Source: DTZ Research market, this is expected to lead to a lot of relocation in the short term. Figure 2 Restrictions on return rate for insurance companies have DTZ office index (2006 – 2017F) prompted some capital outflow abroad. Meanwhile, market momentum has largely been confined to owner occupation, limiting investment activities in the market. 250 Looking at the coming nine months, new supply of grade A 200 office space, including the Taiwan Cooperative Bank Headquarters Building, Fubon Life Dunnan Building and the 150 Cathay Landmark Building, will amount to 52,000 ping. These new buildings are expected to attract tenants from older 100 premises. Because of the high quality of these new properties, rent is expected to increase. 50 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017F 2016F Office Rent Index Office Price Index Source: DTZ Research Figure 3 Grade A office supply (ping), net absorption (ping) and vacancy (%) (2006-2017F) 90,000 16 70,000 14 12 50,000 10 30,000 8 6 10,000 4 -10,000 2 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016F 2017F 2015F -30,000 0 New Supply Net Absorption Vacancy Rate Source: DTZ Research www.dtz.com Property Times 3 Taipei Q1 2015 Retail Figure 4 Retail sales in 2014 reached NT$1,106.5 bn (US$35.44bn), a Sales of general merchandise (NT$bn) (2006 – Jan 2015) y-o-y increase of 5.1% (Figure 4). Among all categories, sales (NT$bn) from department stores and shopping malls showed a great increase of 6.1% y-o-y, 3.5% better than in 2013. The growth was slightly behind retail sales in non-specialised stores from 1,200 the others category, which was recorded at 6.8% y-o-y. The growth in department store sales is due to the fact that coping 1,000 with competition from shopping malls and e-commerce has led department stores to adjust their retail strategies accordingly. 800 Strategies adopted include the introduction of more fast 600 fashion, restaurants and entertainment facilities. 400 This quarter, rental in all Taipei's major retail hubs remained 200 flat as compared with Q4 2014. Among the four major retail 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 hubs, vacancy rate in the Zhongshan/Nanjing retail hub 2015* increased 3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) (Table 3). This reflects the gap between landlord expectation and what tenants can afford. The operation of MRT Songshan Line stimulated business activity along Nanjing W. Rd. near the *Data as of Jan. 2015 MRT station. However, the gap between landlords’ and Source: Department of Statistics, Ministry of Economic Affairs tenants’ rental expectations has led to vacancies on Nanjing W. Rd. Table 3 H&M’s first store in Breeze Songgao, with approximately 1,000 Retail market statistics ping, has drawn great attention. It opened this quarter and its Vacancy rate Rental range popularity has spread to other major retail hubs. H&M plans to District (%) (NT$/ping/month) open its next branch in the Taipei Railway Station retail hub. Korean fast fashion brand SPAO and MIXXO will open a new Zhongxiao 3.4 19,000-26,000 store in Breeze Zhongxiao.