IRAN: THE RISE OF A REGIONAL POWER Barry Rubin* One of the most important power was the man most hated by the developments in the early twenty-first current Islamist regime, the shah, who century Middle East is the rise of Iran was overthrown by its 1979 revolution. to become a regional great power. This He had foreseen Iran as the strongest has come about not solely because Iran state in the Persian Gulf region, albeit has an Islamist regime or even that it as a junior partner of the United States. was driving strenuously for nuclear In this pursuit, he had launched a weapons, but also due to other factors massive military build-up, inaugurated including the country’s geopolitical a nuclear power program, mobilized assets and a relative power vacuum. the country’s rising oil income, and Given, however, the ideology and tried to implement a reform program to extremism of the Tehran regime, Iran’s make Iran a modern country. What had growing influence has serious been for the shah an ambition built on consequences for the region’s stability nationalism was for his successors a and Western interests that could well parallel ambition built on an Islamist become a, or perhaps the, central radicalism that often simply served as a global issue in the coming years. thin disguise for nationalism. In July/August 2006, this influence If the ambition of its leader was one was especially felt in the border attacks pillar of Iran’s rise to be a regional against Israel by Hamas and Hizballah, power, the other was its objective leading to wider-scale fighting. Iran is situation. Iran is a large state with a the patron of both groups, supplying large population exceeding the number them with arms, training, and of people in all the Arab states of the encouragement to launch assaults. Gulf combined. As the price of oil Iranian advisors in Lebanon have long soared after the 1990s, it had ample aided Hizballah, while most of the financial resources too. As an weapons and equipment Hizballah empire—only half its people are used against Israel during this period Persian-speaking—the government in were Iranian-built and supplied. This Tehran knows it must be strong enough for the first time included longer-range to maintain the state’s existence. missiles and the radar-guided C-102 History has shown, indeed, that when anti-ship missile.1 the central regime is weak the country falls apart. THE BASIS OF IRANIAN Iran’s cultural, linguistic, ethnic, DISTINCTIVENESS AND and religious distinctions from its AMBITIONS neighbors also fuel its sense of a separate national mission. The Persian- Ironically, the original theorist and Arab divide is a very real one, and in architect of Iran’s rise to be a regional terms of Islam, the Iranians’ Shi’a 142 Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 10, No. 3 (September 2006) Iran: The Rise of a Regional Power version stands in contrast to the The experience of governing Iran majority Sunni faith among the Arabs. and of fighting off Iraq had taught the Indeed, the dominant view among country’s new rulers an important Arabs since the 1950s was a militant lesson. They had the ambition and nationalism of their own that viewed ideological drive to spread the the Middle East as their sole domain. revolution and expand their control but At times of confrontation and tension, also knew that such activities were as in the Iran-Iraq War of 1980-1988, dangerous. The top priority would be on these contrasts make for real rivalry maintaining their control over Iran; a and hatred. Symbolically, Arab secondary priority was to expand nationalists reject the designation Iranian influence and Islamist revolt. On “Persian Gulf,” preferring to call that the latter front, they proceeded carefully body of water that adjoins the world’s and covertly. richest oil reserves the “Arab Gulf.” Yet in following this strategy, they This is the context into which a also created a hostile environment for radical, utopian Islamist ideology themselves. Insisting that the United seized power in Iran. The revolution’s States was the “Great Satan” whose leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, influence must be swept out of the regarded Iran as only the first step to region did not endear Iran to America. creating a utopian Islamic empire that In truth, an accommodation would would bring, in the words of his final have been possible in which testament in 1989, "absolute perfection Washington would accept an Islamist and infinite glory and beauty." He urged regime in Iran if it did not try to Muslims: "Rise up! Grab what is yours overthrow its neighbors, spread anti- by right through nails and teeth! Do not Americanism, sponsor terrorism, and fear the propaganda of the superpowers try to wreck any progress in resolving and their sworn stooges. Drive out the the Arab-Israeli conflict. The rivalry criminal rulers!.... March towards an was not inevitable. The United States Islamic government!" If only all wanted to avoid trouble. Having Iran’s Moslems cooperated, they would be cooperation in blocking Soviet "the greatest power on earth." influence (at a time when Moscow had Obviously, Iran’s Arab neighbors invaded Afghanistan) and Arab were to be the first ones “liberated” or radicalism—or at least Tehran’s victimized, depending on one’s neutrality—would have satisfied the perspective. Deciding not to wait until United States. Seizing the staff of the Iran was able to launch an Islamist U.S. embassy as hostages and holding revolution in his country, Iraqi dictator them for more than a year provoked a Saddam Hussein invaded Iran in 1980 in different reaction. what was partly a preemptive strike and By 2006, after a quarter-century in partly an imperialistic aggression. After power, Iran had helped produce a very eight years of fighting, Khomeini difficult environment for itself. Its reluctantly had to sue for peace, but the relations with neighboring Arab states revolution had survived. Shortly was formally correct but also tense. thereafter, Khomeini died, but he had American forces were in Afghanistan many lieutenants to take his place. and Iraq, as well as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Tehran could talk about Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 10, No. 3 (September 2006) 143 Barry Rubin encirclement. It was also facing to the emergence of a half-dozen American sanctions and international Muslim majority states to Iran’s north. pressure on the nuclear arms issue. In These include Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, conventional military terms, Iran was Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan. Given relatively weak. It had never recovered the weakness of these states, Iran has from the cutoff of Western arms and backed indigenous Islamist spare parts, especially when it came to movements. The absence of a strong planes, ships, and tanks. USSR to Iran’s north also eases the The domestic situation was also far pressure on Tehran. from secure. During a period of Second, high oil prices in the early relative political permissiveness in the twenty-first century greatly enhanced 1990s and into the next decade, Iran’s financial assets. In addition, Iran reformist candidates had won every became the patron and sole ally of election. The majority of Iranians, Syria, which needed the oil Iran especially among the young, were supplied it at special discounts as well discontented with the regime’s tight as Tehran’s diplomatic support. The rule. Moreover, at least before oil two countries cooperated closely in prices hit their peak, the economy was Syrian-controlled Lebanon for many not doing well. The regime contained years. these threats by maneuvering and The U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and blocking any real change, but they did overthrow of Saddam Hussein not go away eliminated Iran’s most immediately To all these problems—foreign and threatening enemy. Moreover, in a domestic—the regime’s response was democratic situation, the majority ideological firmness, repression of Shi’a lead the government. Some opposition, mass mobilization, the elements in this leading coalition and sponsorship of terrorist and Shi’a militia groups are pro-Iranian, revolutionary movements abroad, and though the leadership as a whole has the acquisition of non-conventional no desire to be Iranian clients. A Sunni weapons. There were also elements in insurgency, supported by Arab the international and regional situation regimes, also pushes the post-Saddam that gave Iran its long-awaited government to view Iran as a necessary opportunity to become a great power in ally. From a situation in which Iraq its own area. menaced Iran, Tehran can now send in large numbers of agents and money to IRAN’S OPPORTUNITY play a pivotal role in the country. The U.S.-led removal of the Taliban Despite these problems, inside and government in Afghanistan also outside of the country, developments eliminated another force hostile to Iran. also provided Iran with opportunities While Iran is not happy having for exerting its power and influence American troops in Afghanistan, that were unprecedented during the Tehran has its own client groups and time of the Islamist regime and even in considerable influence in the Shi’a- Iran’s entire modern history. majority southwestern part of the The first among these elements is country. the Soviet Union’s collapse, which led 144 Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 10, No. 3 (September 2006) Iran: The Rise of a Regional Power Although the United States looks at are still managing to use demagoguery, Iran as the world’s leading sponsor of Arab nationalism, and the fear of terrorism (as well as an obstacle to an Islamism to hold onto power.