Multiple infrastructure failures and restoration estimates from an Alpine Fault earthquake: Capturing modelling information for MERIT T. R. Robinson R. Buxton T. M. Wilson W. J. Cousins A. M. Christophersen ERI Research Report 2015/04 November 2015 ECONOMICS of RESILIENT INFRASTRUCTURE e Economics of Resilient Infrastructure programme is a collaborative New Zealand Government funded research programme between the following people and organisations: DISCLAIMER This report has been prepared by the Economics of Resilient Infrastructure (ERI) Research Programme as part of a collaborative research programme funded by the New Zealand Government. Unless otherwise agreed in writing by ERI, the ERI collaborators accept no responsibility for any use of, or reliance on any contents of this Report by any person or organisation and shall not be liable to any person or organisation, on any ground, for any loss, damage or expense arising from such use or reliance. Contact organisation for inquiries and correspondence is GNS Science Ltd, 1 Fairway Drive, Avalon, PO Box 30368, Lower Hutt 5040. BIBLIOGRAPHIC REFERENCE Robinson, T. R; Buxton, R.; Wilson, T. M.; Cousins, W. J.; Christophersen, A. M. 2015. Multiple infrastructure failures and restoration estimates from an Alpine Fault earthquake: Capturing modelling information for MERIT, ERI Research Report 2015/04. 80 p. T. R. Robinson, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand R. Buxton, GNS Science, PO Box 30368, Lower Hutt, 5040, New Zealand T. M. Wilson, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch, New Zealand W. J. Cousins, GNS Science, PO Box 30368, Lower Hutt, 5040, New Zealand A. M. Christophersen, GNS Science, PO Box 30368, Lower Hutt, 5040, New Zealand © Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences Limited, 2015 ISSN 2382-2325 (Print) ISSN 2382-2287 (Online) ISBN 978-0-908349-47-0 (Print) ISBN 978-0-908349-48-7 (Online) CONTENTS ABSTRACT .......................................................................................................................... V KEYWORDS ......................................................................................................................... V 1.0 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................ 1 2.0 MODELLING THE ECONOMICS OF RESILIENT INFRASTRUCTURE TOOL .......... 3 3.0 METHODS .................................................................................................................. 4 3.1 DISASTER SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT .................................................................. 4 3.1.1 Disaster Event .................................................................................................... 4 3.1.2 Scenario Modelling ............................................................................................. 4 3.2 LOSS AND RESTORATION MODELLING ................................................................. 8 3.2.1 Critical Infrastructure Networks .......................................................................... 8 3.2.2 Exposure Analysis ............................................................................................13 3.2.3 Expert Elicitation ...............................................................................................14 3.2.4 Network Analysis ..............................................................................................18 4.0 INFRASTRUCTURE LOSSES AND RESTORATION .............................................. 19 4.1 STATE HIGHWAYS ........................................................................................... 19 4.1.1 Pre-Earthquake ................................................................................................19 4.1.2 T=0 ...................................................................................................................19 4.1.3 Restoration Strategy .........................................................................................22 4.1.4 T=3 days ...........................................................................................................27 4.1.5 T=14 days .........................................................................................................32 4.1.6 T=30 days .........................................................................................................36 4.1.7 T=90 days .........................................................................................................40 4.1.8 Aftershock Impacts ...........................................................................................43 4.1.9 Mitigation ..........................................................................................................47 4.1.10 Adaptation ........................................................................................................48 4.2 RAIL ............................................................................................................... 48 4.2.1 Pre-Earthquake ................................................................................................48 4.2.2 T=0 ...................................................................................................................49 4.2.3 Restoration Strategy .........................................................................................49 4.2.4 T=1 day.............................................................................................................50 4.2.5 T=3 days ...........................................................................................................51 4.2.6 T=25 days .........................................................................................................51 4.2.7 T=100 days .......................................................................................................51 4.2.8 T=186 days .......................................................................................................52 4.2.9 Aftershock Impacts ...........................................................................................53 4.3 HEP TRANSMISSION ........................................................................................ 54 4.3.1 Pre-Earthquake ................................................................................................54 4.3.2 T=0 ...................................................................................................................54 4.3.3 Restoration Strategy .........................................................................................56 4.3.4 T=2 days ...........................................................................................................56 ERI Research Report 2015/04 i 4.3.5 T=30 days .........................................................................................................56 4.3.6 T=80 days .........................................................................................................56 4.3.7 Aftershock Impacts ...........................................................................................56 4.3.8 Mitigation ..........................................................................................................58 4.3.9 Adaptation ........................................................................................................58 4.4 PIPED SERVICES-THE APPROACH USED............................................................ 58 4.5 SUPPORTING SYSTEMS .................................................................................... 62 4.6 WATER SUPPLY .............................................................................................. 65 4.7 SEWERS ......................................................................................................... 66 4.8 STORMWATER ................................................................................................. 66 4.9 THE OVERALL REPAIR TIMES ........................................................................... 67 4.10 AFTERSHOCK IMPACTS .................................................................................... 67 5.0 DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS ........................................................................ 68 6.0 REFERENCES ......................................................................................................... 70 FIGURES Figure 1 Active faults in the South Island of New Zealand showing the location of the plate boundary Alpine Fault and Marlborough Faults Zone. .................................................................. 5 Figure 2 Top: Isoseismals resulting from an M8 rupture of the Alpine Fault between Milford Sound and the Ahaura River. .................................................................................................................. 6 Figure 3a) Location map of the South Island State Highways. Green triangles show significant place locations; ...................................................................................................................................... 9 Figure 3b) Location map of the South Island rail network. Green triangles show significant place locations; .................................................................................................................................... 10 Figure 3c) Location map of the Hydroelectric Power (HEP) Transmission network; ................................... 11 Figure 3d) Township locations for the Wastewater, Stormwater and Water study. ...................................... 12 Figure 4