Università degli Studi di Cagliari DOTTORATO DI RICERCA IN STORIA, ISTITUZIONI E RELAZIONI INTERNAZIONALI DELL’ASIA E DELL’AFRICA MODERNA E CONTEMPORANEA XXVI Ciclo Power and Dams in Central Asia Settore scientifico disciplinare di afferenza SPS/14 Presentata da: Dott. Filippo Menga Coordinatore Dottorato: Prof.ssa Bianca Maria Carcangiu Tutor/Relatore Prof.ssa Annamaria Baldussi Esame finale anno accademico 2012 – 2013 Abstract The purpose of this research is to analyse and understand the role of state power in transboundary water relations, providing an in–depth analysis of the evolution of interstate relations in Central Asia in the field of water in the period 1991-2011. Taking as a case study the planned construction of the Rogun and Kambarata dams in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, the research looks at the various forms of overt and covert power shaping interstate relations and at the way hegemonic and counter-hegemonic measures are put in place in an international river basin. The overarching hypothesis driving this study is that the intimate correlation between the concepts of power and hegemony can offer key insights to the analysis and understanding of transboundary water relations. While, on the one hand, the analytical focus is placed on state power, on the other hand, hegemonic and counter-hegemonic tactics represent the ways in which power is wielded and observed. This research makes an original contribution to the literature on hydropolitics in Central Asia, offering fresh theoretical interpretations to the subjects of power and counter- hegemony in the Aral Sea basin and presenting the original “circle of hydro-hegemony”, an analytical framework in which the various forms of power are “connective” in the function of hegemony. A further value is added by three timelines expressly created for the research and that represent, at the time of writing, the most detailed reference-supported collection of events of this kind for the Central Asian region in the period 1991-2011. i Table of contents Illustrations .......................................................................................................................... vi List of abbreviations .......................................................................................................... viii Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................... x Chapter 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................... 1 1.1. The politics of international waters ...................................................................................... 2 1.1.1. The Neo-Malthusian approach and the water-war theory ......................................... 5 1.1.2. The Cornucopian or neoliberal approach .................................................................... 9 1.1.3. Critical hydropolitics .................................................................................................... 10 1.1.4. Hydraulic infrastructures and political power .......................................................... 12 1.2. Choice of the case studies .................................................................................................... 14 1.3. Aim of the thesis and research questions ........................................................................... 18 1.4. Outline of the dissertation ................................................................................................... 20 1.5. Originality and scientific value of the research ................................................................. 23 Chapter 2. Theoretical framework and methodology ..................................................... 25 2.1. Constructivism ..................................................................................................................... 25 2.1.1. Constructivism and hydropolitics ............................................................................... 27 2.2. Power..................................................................................................................................... 29 2.2.1. Three dimensions of power .......................................................................................... 30 2.2.2. From hard to soft power .............................................................................................. 34 2.3. Hegemony ............................................................................................................................. 36 2.3.1 Hegemony applied to IR ............................................................................................... 38 2.4. The framework of hydro-hegemony ................................................................................... 41 2.5. Hydro-hegemony revisited .................................................................................................. 46 2.5.1. Counter-hegemonic strategies: a neglected concept .................................................. 48 2.5. The TWINS framework ...................................................................................................... 50 2.5.1. Conflict intensity ........................................................................................................... 51 2.5.2. Cooperation intensity ................................................................................................... 52 2.5.3. Application of TWINS to this study ............................................................................ 53 2.6. Data collection and methods of analysis ............................................................................ 54 Chapter 3. Water relations in Central Asia ..................................................................... 56 3.1. Background on transboundary waters and international water law .............................. 56 3.1.1. Defining transboundary waters ................................................................................... 57 iii 3.1.2. Principles of international water law .......................................................................... 59 3.1.3. Principles of Soviet water law ...................................................................................... 62 3.2. Hydrological and geographical aspects of the Aral Sea basin ......................................... 64 3.2.1. The meaning of water for Central Asian people ........................................................ 67 3.3. The Soviet hydraulic mission .............................................................................................. 69 3.3.1. Bringing water to the desert ........................................................................................ 69 3.4. The water/energy nexus ....................................................................................................... 73 3.5. A weak institutional framework ......................................................................................... 75 3.6. Twenty years of water relations .......................................................................................... 80 3.6.1. Coexisting conflict and cooperation ............................................................................ 80 3.6.2. Three stages of regional relations ................................................................................ 83 3.6.3. Tajikistan and Uzbekistan ........................................................................................... 88 3.6.4. Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan ......................................................................................... 92 3.7. Conclusions ........................................................................................................................... 95 Chapter 4. The Rogun Dam ............................................................................................... 97 4.1. Overview of the Rogun dam ................................................................................................ 97 4.1.1. Independent Tajikistan and the Rogun dam.............................................................. 99 4.2. Expected impact of the Rogun dam ................................................................................. 100 4.2.1. A step towards energy independence ........................................................................ 101 4.2.2. A strong political symbol and a unifying element .................................................... 105 4.2.3. Potential threats to the reliability of water supplies and to the environment ....... 107 4.2.4. The ensuing debate ..................................................................................................... 108 4.3. Tajik counter-hegemonic tactics ....................................................................................... 109 4.3.1. Internal support: creation of a Rogun ideology ....................................................... 111 4.3.2. Mobilization of financial resources ........................................................................... 114 4.3.2.1. Involving countries… ........................................................................................... 115 4.3.2.1. …and financial institutions ................................................................................. 118 4.3.3. Internationalising Rogun ........................................................................................... 119 4.3.3.1. Rogun meets the UN (and