Quarter 1–2 2008 Renewable energy country attractiveness indices In this issue: Global highlights Overview of indices ................2 China has displaced the UK in the top five most attractive countries for investment according to Renewables shine light on Ernst & Young. This has been caused by a combination the credit and oil crunch ........3 of the Chinese wind industry seeing outstanding Highlights of the indices .........5 growth rates and the UK losing ground due to the slow speed of implementation of its proposed Deal activity, first half 2008 ...6 renewable strategy. All renewables index at Q1-Q2 2008..........................8 The Euromoney and Ernst & Young Long-term wind index at Global Renewable Energy Awards 2008 Q1-Q2 2008..........................9 – are you nominated? Near-term wind index at Q1-Q2 2008........................10 The prestigious Global Renewable Energy Awards are fast approaching. To ensure you have a chance Country focus .....................11 to win and find how to complete the nomination form, Offshore issues ....................17 see page 19. The Euromoney and Ernst & Young Global Renewable Energy Awards ...19 Q1and Q2 2008 combined webcast ...............19 Commentary — guidance notes ....................20 Company index ....................22 Ernst & Young was ranked the leading project finance advisor in the Americas, Europe, Middle East and Africa between 2001 and 2007 by Project Finance International. Overview of indices The Ernst & Young country attractiveness indices provide Renewables infrastructure index scores for national renewable energy markets, renewable energy infrastructures and their suitability for individual technologies. This provide an assessment by country of the general regulatory The Indices provide scores out of 100 and are updated on a infrastructure for renewable energy (see page 20). regular basis. The main indices (All Renewables and Long-term Wind) Technology factors are referred to as the ‘Long-term Indices.’ The near-term wind These provide resource specific assessments for each country index takes a two-year view with slightly different parameters (see page 20). and weightings (see below right). The country attractiveness indices take a generic view and different sponsor/financier requirements will clearly affect how Long-term wind index countries are rated. Ernst & Young’s Renewable Energy Group These Indices are derived from scoring: can provide detailed studies to meet specific corporate objectives. It is important that readers refer to the guidance notes set out on • The Onshore Wind Index – 74% pages 20 and 21 when referring to the Indices. • The Offshore Wind Index – 26% Long-term Indices Near-term wind index The Long-term indices are forward looking and take a The near-term wind index takes a forward looking two-year view Long-term view, hence the UK’s high ranking in the Wind Index, based on the parameters of most concern to a typical investor explained by the large amount of unexploited wind resource, looking to make an investment in the Near-term. The Index gives strong offshore regime and attractive tariffs available under scores for onshore and offshore separately. For parameters and the Renewables Obligation mechanism. Conversely, although weightings see page 21. Denmark has the highest proportion of installed wind capacity to population level, it scores relatively low because of its restricted grid capacity and reduced tariff incentives. Comments and suggestions All renewables index We welcome your comments or suggestions on any This Index provide an overall score for all renewable energy aspect of the Indices. Detailed attractiveness surveys and technologies. It combines Individual technology indices as follows: market reports can be provided taking account of specific corporate objectives. Please contact Jonathan Johns, 1. Wind index — 75% (comprising Onshore Wind index and Andrew Perkins or Ben Warren: Offshore Wind Index) Tel +44 [0]1392 284 300 2. Solar index — 10% Email [email protected] 3. Biomass and other resource index — 15% Email [email protected] Email [email protected] Web www.ey.com/renewables Individual technology indices These indices are derived from scoring: • General country-specific parameters (the renewables infrastructure index), accounting for 35% • Technology-specific parameters (the Technology Factors), accounting for 65% 2 Renewable energy country attractiveness indices Q1-Q2 2008 Renewables shine light on the credit and oil crunch As reflected in the G8 Summit, the credit crunch and rising Some lenders believe that certain deals in 2007 were too tight oil prices are two of the most pressing issues affecting the – which the market is now rectifying: although given world economy. improvements on the revenue side, project IRRs may not be significantly affected. Survey on lenders’ appetite We have seen no slowdown in projects being taken to financial close and providing they are soundly structured, expect this to be The first phase of the credit squeeze affected industries such as the case for the foreseeable future. We are finding that investors the subprime mortgage and property markets. During this phase and bankers are increasing their due diligence activity in the renewables proved resilient. The global economy is now seeing a renewables area. For example with biomass, the availability and second phase in the credit crisis which has reached further into sustainability of fuel source is critical. the global economy than many suspected it would. To measure this impact Ernst & Young surveyed a number of lenders to see if their appetite for lending to renewable energy projects has Market response – IPO activity changed in the last six months. “The global rate of IPO activity has slowed, share indices have fallen and individual renewable energy stocks have Does the credit squeeze improve suffered accordingly.” renewable energy as an area which A number of IPOs have been cancelled or postponed due to to lend? market conditions, for example, DONG Energy or Nitol Solar’s postponed IPOs. It was, however, pleasing to see Portuguese Q3 07 Q1 08 utility Energias de Portugal (EDP) float its renewable energy division, EDP Renováveis SL raising €1.8bn (US$2.8bn). Improve 15% 0% Priced at €8 (US$12.6) a share, just below the midpoint of the No impact 85% 100% initial range of €7.4 (US$14) to €8.9 (US$11.7) announced on 15 May, the float is Europe’s biggest so far this year. “On the whole the credit crunch has not impacted the The IPO activity slowdown has not been restricted to all attractiveness of the sector.” stock exchanges. In Q1 2008, all bar one IPO occurred in Asia As in Q3 2007, all lenders surveyed believe pricing has been or Australia, compared to three from eight IPOs in Q1 2007. affected with margins 20-30 basis points higher as a result of the credit crunch, with lenders indicating this could increase further still. Renewable energy stock market indices Some lenders felt basis point increases would only occur performance – first half 2008 on syndicated or club loans, rather than bi-lateral deals, From March 2007 to June 2008, the FTSE index fell by 11%, although syndicated deals are expected to become more whereas the Wilderhill Clean Energy Index (NEX) rose by 17% commonplace by the lending community. over the same period. Data collected by Ernst & Young on selected renewable energy Which of the following are most affected stocks (shown in the graph overleaf), show that the solar sector has performed better than other renewable energy technologies. by the credit squeeze? The solar sector has seen a rise of 56% from March 2007, Q3 07 Q1 08 while wind companies decreased on average by 7% and biomass stocks fell by 34% on average in the same period. Volume 50% 20% “The rise in oil prices is yet to factor into renewable equity prices.” Cover ratios 15% 40% Appetite for merchant financing 30% 40% Pricing 100% 100% “Pricing will harden and ratios increase for syndicated deals. Pricing flex and cash sweeps are in. Re-financings are increasingly seen by banks as an opportunity to incease margins.” Renewable energy country attractiveness indices Q1-Q2 2008 3 Renewable and other indices performance March 2007 – June 2007 Index 2.50 2.00 FTSE Biomass (E&Y) 1.50 Utilities Wind (E&Y) 1.00 NEX (Wilderhill) Oil ($) 0.50 Solar (E&Y) Jul-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Source: Ernst & Young – rebasing of FTSE All-Share Index plus data collected by Ernst & Young on over 30 listed renewable energy companies (developers and manufacturers but excluding marine, geothermal and biofuels) and global utilities Average P/E by sector – solar correction input costs, e.g., steel. The cost of the shift is high and difficult to pay for in the context of a world trade downturn. Price-earnings (P/E) data collected Q1 08 has revealed a large reduction in market expectations for solar companies. The paradox for the industry is that with the rising cost of This reduction from internet company boom level P/E wholesale electricity, some technologies could in the medium ratios suggests a maturing of the solar sector and a greater term operate with renewable tariffs at a lower premium to understanding of these stocks, with ratios at more wholesale electricity prices than is presently the case. sustainable levels. This is influencing debates in Spain, the US and increasingly in It also reflects some concerns that taxpayer or energy the UK where there is questioning of the cost of support to the consumer pressures may reduce support levels in some countries, taxpayer or energy consumer. such as Spain. “Concerns about cost are perhaps behind the G8’s acceptance Biogas and biomass P/E ratios remain consistently lower, of strong carbon targets, but Governments remain reticent as to possibly due to the greater complexity of these businesses and the means to effect them.” the reliance on feedstocks with volatile prices.