New 3-16, 21st Century School for Learning Communities of Aberafan, Baglan, Briton Ferry, Port Talbot and Sandfields Final Business Case (FBC) Submitted by Neath Port Talbot County Borough Council Presented by: Andrew Thomas Richard Gordon Issue No: 0.2 Date Issued: 07/04/14 Contents 1.0 Executive Summary .............................................................................................. 7 1.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 7 1.2 Strategic Case ......................................................................................................... 7 1.2.1 Strategic Outline Programme ..................................................................... 7 1.2.2 The Strategic Context .............................................................................. 12 1.2.3 The Case for Change .............................................................................. 12 1.2.4 Investment Objectives ............................................................................. 13 1.3 Economic Case ..................................................................................................... 14 1.3.1 Overall Conclusion of Scoping and Service Options ................................ 14 1.3.2 The Short List .......................................................................................... 16 1.3.3 Key Findings ............................................................................................ 17 1.3.4 Option Appraisal Conclusions .................................................................. 19 1.4 Financial Case ...................................................................................................... 20 1.4.1 Summary of Financial Appraisal .............................................................. 20 1.4.2 Overall Affordability and Balance Sheet Treatment .................................. 20 1.5 Commercial Case .................................................................................................. 21 1.5.1 Procurement Strategy .............................................................................. 21 1.5.2 Required Services ................................................................................... 21 1.5.3 Agreed Risk Transfer ............................................................................... 23 1.6 Management Case ................................................................................................ 24 1.6.1 Management arrangements ..................................................................... 24 1.6.2 Programme Management arrangements ................................................. 24 1.6.3 Project Management arrangements ......................................................... 25 1.6.4 Benefits Realisation ................................................................................. 25 1.6.5 Risk Management .................................................................................... 25 1.6.6 Post Project Evaluation (PERs) Arrangements ........................................ 26 1.7 Recommendation .................................................................................................. 26 2.0 The Strategic Case .............................................................................................. 27 2.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 27 2.1.1 Strategic Outline Programme ................................................................... 27 2.2 Part A: the Strategic Context ................................................................................. 32 2.3 Organisational Overview ....................................................................................... 33 2.3.1 The Authority, its Geographical Area and the Population served ............. 33 2.3.2 Education Provision ................................................................................. 36 2.4 Strategic Aims and Objectives ............................................................................... 38 2.5 Business Strategies ............................................................................................... 39 2.5.1 National Strategies .................................................................................. 39 2.5.2 Local Initiatives ........................................................................................ 39 2.5.3 Assist ICT ................................................................................................ 40 2.5.4 Assist Welsh-medium Provision ............................................................... 42 2.5.5 Assist Economic Development ................................................................. 43 2.5.6 Spatial Plan ............................................................................................. 43 2.5.7 Organisation and Regeneration strategies ............................................... 44 2.6 Part B: the Case for Change ................................................................................. 44 2.7 Investment Objectives ........................................................................................... 45 Page 2 of 168 2.8 Existing arrangements ........................................................................................... 46 2.8.1 Staff and Pupil Numbers .......................................................................... 46 2.8.2 Configuration and Suitability of Estates .................................................... 47 2.8.3 Primary Schools’ Condition Overview ...................................................... 48 2.8.4 Primary Schools’ Suitability Overview ...................................................... 48 2.8.5 Primary Schools’ Sustainability Overview ................................................ 49 2.8.6 Secondary Schools’ Condition Overview ................................................. 49 2.8.7 Secondary Schools’ Suitability Overview ................................................. 50 2.8.8 Secondary Schools’ Sustainability Overview ............................................ 50 2.9 Business needs ..................................................................................................... 51 2.10 Potential Business Scope and Key Service Requirements .................................... 58 2.11 Main Benefits Criteria ............................................................................................ 63 2.12 Main Risks ............................................................................................................. 70 2.13 Constraints ............................................................................................................ 78 2.14 Dependencies ....................................................................................................... 78 3.0 Economic Case.................................................................................................... 79 3.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 79 3.2 Critical Success Factors ........................................................................................ 79 3.3 Services Scoping Options ..................................................................................... 81 3.3.1 Option 1: ‘Do minimum’ – Maintain the status quo ................................... 81 3.3.2 Option 2: ‘Intermediate scope’ – Federate the existing three secondary schools 82 3.3.3 Option 3: ‘Maximum scope’ – Close the three secondary schools (with adjacent primary school) and transfer pupils to one school ................................... 82 3.3.4 Summary Assessment of Scoping Options .............................................. 83 3.4 Service Solution Options ....................................................................................... 84 3.4.1 Long List Options ..................................................................................... 84 3.4.2 Short List Options .................................................................................... 86 3.4.3 Summary Assessment of Service Solution Options ................................. 89 3.5 Overall Conclusion of Scoping and Service Options .............................................. 90 3.6 Short-Listed Options .............................................................................................. 92 3.7 The Procurement Process ..................................................................................... 96 3.7.1 Long List Criteria...................................................................................... 96 3.7.2 Long List and Short List ........................................................................... 96 3.8 Economic Appraisal ............................................................................................... 97 3.8.1 Introduction .............................................................................................. 97 3.8.2 Estimating Benefits .................................................................................. 97 3.8.3 Estimating Costs ...................................................................................... 99 3.8.4 Net Present Value Findings ................................................................... 100 3.8.5 Option Ranking ...................................................................................... 103 3.8.6 Option