MAGIC Climate Change Resiliency Plan Vulnerability Assessment, Pt. 1 Prepared for MAGIC Regional Council http://www.mapc.org/magic Prepared by Metropolitan Area Planning Council 60 Temple Place, 6th Floor Boston, Massachusetts 02111 Tel (617) 451-2770 www.mapc.org Working Document 2.0 July 2017 CONTENTS Introduction......................................................................................................................................................... 1 Why Plan for Climate Change in the MAGIC Region? ......................................................................... 1 Planning Process............................................................................................................................................ 2 Document Guide ........................................................................................................................................... 8 Regional Profile ................................................................................................................................................ 9 Local Government ......................................................................................................................................... 9 Demographics .............................................................................................................................................. 10 Health Status ............................................................................................................................................... 10 Vulnerable Population Groups................................................................................................................. 10 Economy ........................................................................................................................................................ 11 Natural Resources ....................................................................................................................................... 13 Built Environment ......................................................................................................................................... 14 Transportation ............................................................................................................................................. 14 Climate Change Projections and Impacts to MAGIC Region .................................................................... 7 Climate Change to Date ............................................................................................................................. 7 Climate Change Modelling ......................................................................................................................... 7 Developing a Regional Climate Change Scenario for the MAGIC Region ....................................... 9 Vulnerability Assessment ............................................................................................................................... 19 Assessment Approach................................................................................................................................. 19 Alignment with other plans ........................................................................................................................ 20 Vulnerability Assessment Findings ................................................................................................................ 21 Terrestrial Habitat and Species ............................................................................................................... 22 Aquatic Habitats and Species .................................................................................................................. 29 Drinking Water Infrastructure .................................................................................................................. 36 Stormwater Infrastructure ......................................................................................................................... 43 Wastewater Infrastructure ........................................................................................................................ 50 Built Environment ......................................................................................................................................... 56 Transportation System ............................................................................................................................... 67 Energy Infrastructure .................................................................................................................................. 73 Human Health and Welfare ..................................................................................................................... 77 Outdoor Workers ....................................................................................................................................... 89 Agriculture .................................................................................................................................................... 92 Local Economy: Health Care ..................................................................................................................... 96 Local Economy: Tourism .......................................................................................................................... 100 Local Government .................................................................................................................................... 104 Potential Vulnerabilities Requiring Additional Research .................................................................. 108 Figures Figure 1. Map of MAGIC Region .................................................................................................................. 1 Figure 2. MAGIC Towns by Population ........................................................................................................ 9 Figure 3. MAGIC Employment by Industry, 2015 .................................................................................... 12 Figure 4. Number of Farms in MAGIC Towns ............................................................................................ 13 Figure 5. Number of farms and their primary activities/products ........................................................ 13 Figure 6. How climate projections are calculated. ..................................................................................... 9 Figure 7. Boston Area projected increases in average summer temperatures ................................... 11 Figure 8. High Heat Days in Middlesex County ....................................................................................... 12 Figure 9. Precipitation Projections ............................................................................................................... 13 Figure 10. Current Floodplains and areas of exposure .......................................................................... 17 Figure 11. Assessment approach ................................................................................................................. 19 Figure 12. Forest Macro groups. ................................................................................................................. 24 Figure 13. Emerald Ash Borer, Asian Longhorn Beetle, Hemlock Woolly Adelgid (left to right) .... 26 Figure 14. Vernal pools and developed land .......................................................................................... 32 Figure 15. OARS Assabet, Sudbury, and Concord Sampling Sites ....................................................... 34 Figure 16. Watershed map .......................................................................................................................... 38 Figure 17. Net groundwater depletion map ............................................................................................. 39 Figure 18. Municipal Water Use Restrictions, August 2016 ................................................................... 40 Figure 19. Map of wellheads and floodplains ......................................................................................... 41 Figure 20. Map of Impaired Waters in Magic ......................................................................................... 46 Figure 21. Sewer Availability in MAGIC ................................................................................................... 52 Figure 22. Heat map for region .................................................................................................................. 61 Figure 23. Open Space Map ....................................................................................................................... 65 Figure 24. Map of major roadway and commuter rail transit infrastructure...................................... 68 Figure 25. Map of key energy generating facilities in the MAGIC region ........................................ 75 Figure 26. Map of older adult populations – current.............................................................................. 78 Figure 27. Map of older adult populations – projected ........................................................................ 79 Figure 28. Map of population living alone ............................................................................................... 80 Figure 29. Map of Lyme Disease Incidence Rates per municipality, 2010-2014.............................