APEC ENERGY DEMAND AND SUPPLY OUTLOOK 5 TH EDITION ECONOMY REVIEWS ASIA PACIFIC ENERGY RESEARCH CENTRE This report, along with detailed tables of the model results, is published at http://aperc.ieej.or.jp/ FEBRUARY 2013 Published by: Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Institute of Energy Economics, Japan Inui Building Kachidoki 11F, 1-13-1 Kachidoki Chuo-ku, Tokyo 104-0054 Japan Tel: (813) 5144-8551 Fax: (813) 5144-8555 Email: [email protected] (administration) Website: http://aperc.ieej.or.jp/ Produced for: APEC Secretariat 35 Heng Mui Keng Terrace, Singapore 119616 Tel: (65) 68 919 600 Fax: (65) 68 919 690 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.apec.org © 2013 APEC Secretariat February 2013 APEC#213-RE-01.5 ISBN 978-4-931482-45-6 APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook – 5th Edition Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword ................................................................................................................................................................................ ii Acknowledgements .............................................................................................................................................................. iii List of Abbreviations ......................................................................................................................................................... viii Tables of Approximate Conversion Factors ................................................................................................................... xi Australia .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1 Brunei Darussalam .............................................................................................................................................................. 11 Canada .................................................................................................................................................................................. 21 Chile ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 33 China ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 43 Hong Kong, China ............................................................................................................................................................. 55 Indonesia .............................................................................................................................................................................. 65 Japan ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 79 Korea .................................................................................................................................................................................... 89 Malaysia ................................................................................................................................................................................ 97 Mexico ................................................................................................................................................................................ 109 New Zealand ...................................................................................................................................................................... 123 Papua New Guinea ........................................................................................................................................................... 133 Peru ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 141 Philippines .......................................................................................................................................................................... 155 The Russian Federation ................................................................................................................................................... 167 Singapore ............................................................................................................................................................................ 175 Chinese Taipei ................................................................................................................................................................... 183 Thailand .............................................................................................................................................................................. 193 United States ...................................................................................................................................................................... 203 Viet Nam ............................................................................................................................................................................ 215 i APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook – 5th Edition Foreword FOREWORD We are pleased to present the APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook – 5th Edition. This Outlook is designed to provide a basic point of reference for anyone wishing to become more informed about the energy choices facing the APEC region. Concerns about energy security, the impacts of energy on the economy, and environmental sustainability are becoming increasingly important drivers of policy in every APEC economy. The business-as-usual projections presented here illustrate the risks of the development path the APEC region is currently on. A new feature of this Outlook is the alternative scenarios, which examine options for increasing natural gas use and reducing energy demand in transportation. Readers who desire a quick overview of our most important findings should read Chapter 1, “Summary of Key Trends”. Readers who desire a quick overview of our business-as-usual projections should read Chapter 2, “APEC Energy Demand and Supply Overview”. Because of the summaries provided in these two chapters, an Executive Summary would be redundant and is not included. Detailed tables of the model results are available on the APERC website http://aperc.ieej.or.jp/. This report is the work of Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (the ‘we’ used throughout this report). It is an independent study, and does not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the APEC Energy Working Group or individual member economies. But we hope that it will serve as a useful basis for discussion and analysis of energy issues both within and among APEC member economies. I would like to express a special thanks to the many people outside APERC who have assisted us in preparing this report, as well as to the entire team here at APERC. We at APERC are, of course, responsible for any errors that remain. I would especially like to acknowledge the contributions of my predecessor as APERC President, Kenji Kobayashi. Under Mr. Kobayashi’s leadership, the Outlook – 5th Edition project was already well-organized and underway when I joined APERC in July 2012. Takato Ojimi President Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC) ii APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook – 5th Edition Acknowledgements ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The development of the APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook – 5th Edition could not have been accomplished without the contributions of many individuals and organizations. We would like to thank all those whose efforts made this Outlook possible, in particular those named below. We are very grateful to our sponsors. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan, provided the primary funding for this project. The Petroleum Institute of Thailand funded the participation of Charothon Ung-Jinda and Nontaphorn Udomwadhanaphorn. The United States Department of Energy funded the participation of Monterey R. Gardiner. We wish to express our appreciation to the APERC Annual Conference and Workshop participants who met with us and provided invaluable insights into the issues raised in the draft report. We also would like to thank members of the APEC Energy Working Group (EWG), the APEC Expert Group on Energy Data and Analysis (EGEDA), and the APERC Advisory Board, along with numerous government officials, for their helpful information and comments. PROJECT MANAGER Ralph D. Samuelson MAIN CONTRIBUTORS TO THIS VOLUME Australia: Gayathiri Bragatheswaran Brunei Darussalam: Aishah Mohd. Isa and Mardrianto Kadri Canada: Gayathiri Bragatheswaran Chile: Tran Thanh Lien and Juan Roberto Lozano Maya People’s Republic of China: Bing-Chwen Yang, Aishah Mohd. Isa and Du Bing Hong Kong, China: Bing-Chwen Yang Indonesia: Aishah Mohd. Isa, Mardrianto Kadri, and Chrisnawan Anditya Japan: Goichi Komori and Kazumoto Irie Republic of Korea: Dmitry Aleksandrovich Sokolov Malaysia: Aishah Mohd. Isa and Chandran Sundaraj Mexico: Juan Roberto Lozano Maya New Zealand: Ralph D. Samuelson Papua New Guinea: Dmitry Aleksandrovich Sokolov Peru: Juan Roberto Lozano Maya The Republic of Philippines: Elvira Torres Gelindon The Russian Federation: Dmitry Aleksandrovich Sokolov