Kathrin Lenz-Raymann Securitization of Islam: A Vicious Circle global local Islam Kathrin Lenz-Raymann (lic. phil.) works in the field of political consulting in Zu- rich, Switzerland. Her research interests include social and human security, counter-terrorism policies and human rights. Kathrin Lenz-Raymann Securitization of Islam: A Vicious Circle Counter-Terrorism and Freedom of Religion in Central Asia This thesis was accepted as a doctoral dissertation by the Faculty of Arts of the University of Zurich in the spring semester 2014 on the recommendation of Prof. Dr. Albert A. Stahel, Prof. Dr. Kurt Imhof and Prof. Dr. Ueli Mäder. This project was funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF). Bibliographic information published by the Deutsche Nationalbibliothek The Deutsche Nationalbibliothek lists this publication in the Deutsche Natio- nalbibliografie; detailed bibliographic data are available in the Internet at http://dnb.d-nb.de © 2014 transcript Verlag, Bielefeld All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or uti- lized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any infor- mation storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. All photographs and cover illustration: Lisa Harand Cover layout: Kordula Röckenhaus, Bielefeld Printed by Majuskel Medienproduktion GmbH, Wetzlar Print-ISBN 978-3-8376-2904-0 PDF-ISBN 978-3-8394-2904-4 Content Thanks | 13 Summary | 15 1. Introduction | 17 1.1. Research Interest | 17 1.2. Theoretical Background | 27 1.3. Methods | 30 1.4. Databases, Country Reports and Country Profiles | 38 PART I REVIVAL OF ISLAM: CASE STUDIES OF ISLAMIC GROUPS 2. Features of Central Asian Folk Islam | 45 2.1. General Remarks on Islam | 45 2.2. Sunni Hanafi Madhab | 49 2.3. Sufism | 54 2.4. Folk Islam: Saints Culture and Mazar Worshipping | 61 3. Salafi Islam: Social Transformation and Political Islam | 69 3.1. Catchwords, Misconceptions and Important Terms | 70 3.2. Political Islam and Salafism | 76 3.3. Jihadists: Armed Warriors for the Caliphate | 83 3.4. Islamists: Political Parties | 89 3.5. Modernists and Neo-Fundamentalists: Social Transformation | 97 4. Typology of Islamic Groups | 109 4.1. Folk-Islamic Groups | 109 4.2. Non-Traditional Islamic Groups | 110 PART II POLITICS AND ISLAM: CASE STUDIES OF POLITICAL REGIMES 5. History of Politics and Islam in Central Asia | 117 5.1. Early Empires and Islamization of Central Asia | 117 5.2. The Communist State and Islam in Central Asia | 129 6. General Comparison of Contemporary Regimes | 139 6.1. Demographic Situation | 142 6.2. Socio-economic Situation | 147 6.3. Political System and Government Bodies | 158 7. Comparison of the Contemporary Role of Religion in Politics | 177 7.1. Freedom of Religion and The Concept of Recognition | 178 7.2. Secularity in the Constitution | 179 7.3. Content of Religious Laws | 185 7.4. Institutions Involved with Religion | 196 7.5. Procedures Concerning Religion | 202 8. Comparison of Law Enforcement | 209 8.1. Security Strategies and Counter-Terrorism Laws | 210 8.2. Security Forces | 214 8.3. International Cooperation in the Security Sector | 221 8.4. Comparison of the Judiciary: Trials and Torture | 227 9. Typology of Religious and Counter-Terrorism Politics | 233 9.1. Typology of State Regulation of Folk Islam | 233 9.2. Typology of State Regulation of Non-Traditional Groups | 236 PART III SECURITIZATION: THEORY AND SIMULATION MODEL 10. Securitization Theory: Legitimacy in Security Politics | 243 10.1. Legitimacy in Securitization Theory | 243 10.2. Vocabulary and Units of Analysis | 246 10.3. Securitization of Islam in Central Asia | 252 11. Model Description | 257 11.1. Overview and ODD-Protocol | 257 11.2. Simulation Setup | 264 11.3. Simulation Results: Revival of Islam | 271 11.4. Threatened Reference Objects | 273 11.5. Securitizing Moves | 276 12. Model Verification and Validation | 279 12.1. Sensitivity Analysis | 279 12.2. Verification: Mutual Reinforcement of Securitization | 280 12.3. Validation: Simulation Results and Empirical Data | 282 13. Conclusions | 289 13.1. Conclusions from Computer Simulation | 289 13.2. General Concluding Remarks | 290 Literature | 293 Appendix Appendix A: Official Documents and Websites | 319 Appendix B: NetLogo Code for Simulation | 321 Appendix C: Initial Values and Parameters for Simulation | 324 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Muslim Population in Central Asia: Sunnis and Shiites | 50 Table 2: Typology of Non-Traditional Islamic Groups | 112 Table 3: Demographic Benchmarks | 142 Table 4: Ethnic Composition of Central Asian Societies | 144 Table 5: Religious Composition: Muslims and Christians | 145 Table 6: Economic Benchmarks | 147 Table 7: Poverty Benchmarks | 151 Table 8: Numbers of Migrant Workers Abroad | 153 Table 9: International Trading Partners | 154 Table 10: Infrastructural Benchmarks | 156 Table 11: Human Development Index | 157 Table 12: Political Systems and Presidents | 161 Table 13: Structure and Composition of Parliaments | 165 Table 14: Freedom and Democracy Indices | 169 Table 15: Religious Committees | 196 Table 16: Muftiates and Muftis | 202 Table 17: Paramilitary Resources | 217 Table 18: Military Resources | 221 Table 19: Political Terror Scale | 230 Table 20: Legal Status of Salafi Groups in Central Asia | 236 Table 21: Religious Persecution Index | 239 Table 22: Detainees on Religious Grounds | 240 Table 23: Securitization Theory in the Central Asian Context | 252 Table 24: Conflict Assumptions for Vicious Circle Hypothesis | 254 Table 25: Securitization in the Simulation | 258 Table 26: ODD-Protocol | 259 Table 27: Application of Data for Simulation Model | 267 Table 28: Calculation of Context-Legitimacy | 268 Table 29: Initial Values for Simulation | 268 Table 30: Interactions of Agents | 269 Table 31: Context-Legitimacy (Simulation Parameter) | 272 Table 32: Capacities of Security Forces (Simulation Parameter) | 273 Table 33: PTS (Simulation Parameter) | 277 Table 34: Validation of Terrorist Attacks | 283 Table 35: Validation of Timing of Securitizaton by State Actors | 284 Table 36: Validation of Constraints on Religious Freedom | 286 Table 37: Initial Values and Parameters for Simulation | 324 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Numbers of Suicide Attacks in Central Asia | 20 Figure 2: Repression-radicalization Hypothesis | 23 Figure 3: Vicious-circle Hypothesis | 26 Figure 4: Percentages of Muslims Identifying with a Sufi Order | 63 Figure 5: Percentage of Muslims Supporting Folk Islam | 67 Figure 6: Quran Reading by Central Asian Muslims | 78 Figure 7: Approval for Terrorist Attacks Compared to Support for Sharia | 84 Figure 8: Attitudes towards Political Islam among Central Asian Muslims | 89 Figure 9: Relationship between Religion and Modernity | 98 Figure 10: Preference for Democracy or a Powerful Leader | 163 Figure 11: Frequency of Prayers and Visitation of Religious Services | 234 Figure 12: Perception of Religious Policies by Central Asian Muslims | 234 Figure 13: Different Religious Groups Compete for Influence | 271 Figure 14: Unofficial Islam Supercedes Official Islam | 272 Figure 15: Arbitrary Arrests Lead to Protest | 274 Figure 16: Clouds of Protestors Gather | 275 Figure 17: Political Islam’s Share of Unofficial Islam | 275 Figure 18: Radicalized Detainees Released asJjihadists | 276 Figure 20: No Detentions and No Protests | 281 Figure 21: Detentions and Protests | 281 Figure 22: Protestors, Jihadists and Casualties | 282 Figure 23: Simulation Results | 289 LIST OF IMAGES Image 1: Mosque at Baytik Baatir Mazar | 65 Image 2: Gravestone of Baytik Baatir’s Friend | 65 Image 3: Shayk at Baytik Baatir Mazar | 66 Image 4: Meeting at the IRPT Headquarter in Dushanbe | 95 Image 5: Kabiri, President of the IRPT | 96 Image 6: Manas University in Bishkek | 99 Image 7: Madrasa supported by Gülen Movement in Bishkek | 101 Image 8: Gülen Radio Maral in Bishkek | 102 Image 9: Kyrgyz Member of Tablighi Jama’at | 107 Image 10: Private Religious Class in Bishkek | 192 Image 11: Kazakh Muftiate in Almaty | 198 Thanks This study is my doctoral thesis and was financed by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNF). I am glad for having had this opportunity to work and do research in my special field of interest. First of all, my thanks go to my doctoral committee, consisting of Prof. Dr. Albert A. Stahel (Insti- tute for Strategic Studies, Wädenswil), Prof. Dr. Kurt Imhof (University of Zurich) and Prof. Dr. Ueli Mäder (University of Basel). In particular, Al- bert Stahel strengthened my critical mind concerning world politics and the strategic decision-making of nation states. His faith in my scientific en- deavours gave me the self-confidence to keep going with my work. My simulation model profited from the long-time simulation experience and advice of Armando Geller (co-founder of Scensei, and affiliated with the School of Conflict Analysis and Resolution at George Mason Universi- ty in Washington) and Lukas Schmid (head of the Institute for Innovation, Design und Engineering at the University of Applied Sciences of St. Gallen). Their critique enabled me to improve the model and made me real- ise that a lot would still have to be done to bring it up to date. Many people enriched this study by giving me formal or informal inter- views in Central Asia. I cannot name all of them because some could face difficulties with their restrictive governments. I am very thankful for their hospitality and openness