V15 N8 Thursday, Oct. 8, 2009 Dead Hand: Cold War hot flashes Book details how Reagan, Gorbachev, Lugar & Nunn grappled with WMD By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS - Lt. Col. Stanislav Petrov worked at Serpukhov-15, a Soviet top- secret missile attack early-warning station. He was far below on the command chain from General Secretary Yuri Andropov, frail and at an enhanced level of paranoia after President Carter had issued Directive 59 that listed the decapitation of the Kremlin as a key Hand: The Untold Story of U.S. nuclear war option. It was Petrov’s job the Cold War Arms race to give Soviet leaders the five or six minutes and its Dangerous Legacy” needed to decide whether to participate in (Doubleday) this unknown Rus- one of mankind’s most onerous paradoxes: sian held the fate of the world Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). in his hands. If the alarm was Shortly after midnight on Sept. 27, validated, the Soviet leader- 1983, Petrov looked up at a monitor that was ship and the General staff could lit up with the red letters - “LAUNCH.” A light launch a retaliation. There were at one of the American missile bases had lit up. A siren only minutes to decide. wailed. Within minutes the creaky Soviet computers were Hoffman writes: Petrov made a decision. He knew signaling five U.S. missiles had launched. the system had glitches in the past; there was no visual In David E. Hoffman’s disturbing book “The Dead Continued on Page 3 President Pence? By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS - President Mike Pence? There was a spike in the national press interest on the subject this past week after U.S. Rep. Mike Pence wowed the annual conference of the Americans for Pros- “I’m moving in that direction, perity and scheduled a fundraising trip to South Carolina. It followed his appearance at the making the rounds and looking at National Tea Party on the federal mall in August as well as speaking trips to data.” Iowa and California. Roll Call noted that - State Rep. Jackie Walorski , Pence’s campaign staff passed out small cards on the mall featuring his photo telling HPI she plans to form an above the words “Mike Pence, Standing exploratory committee to run against Strong.” The back of the card invited voters to “Join the Pence Team.” U.S. Rep. Joe Donnelly HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 2 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, Oct. 8, 2009 Last Friday, plan. If opportunities Howey Politics The Politico reported present themselves in the Indiana that Pence exhorted future we’ll have prayer conservatives to rally and deliberation. We is a nonpartisan news- against fiscal excess, don’t have any long-term telling the crowd plans but certainly we letter based in Indianapolis that the U.S. is “on always look for opportu- and published by NewsLink the verge of a great nities in the future for the American awakening. people of our district and Inc. It was founded in It’s authentic and it’s the people of Indiana.” 1994 in Fort Wayne. real and it’s powerful It’s a line of thought and it’s American.” that Pence repeats these When days. At the Vander- Brian A. Howey, publisher pressed about his U.S. Rep. Mike Pence speaking burgh County Republi- Mark Schoeff Jr.,Washington newly fueled presi- at the White House. can Lincoln Day Dinner dential ambitions, in September, Pence Jack E. Howey, editor Pence responded wowed the crowd. “He Beverly Phillips, associate opaquely and with a chuckle: “I have gave a bang up speech,” said party editor no plans to run for president.” secretary Joshua Claybourn. Duringa Katie Coffin, intern The Indiana political scene has Q&A, Pence was asked about both long been abuzz about the future of prospective presidential and guberna- Mike Pence. Allies in the 6th CD were torial runs. The answer was similar to Subscriptions: tipping off HPI more than a year ago the one he gave HPI in January: He that he was seriously pondering a 2012 wouldn’t say yes or no. $350 annually HPI via e-mail; bid for governor. At the second inau- “If he ran for governor, he’d $550 annually HPI & HPI Daily gural of Gov. Mitch Daniels, Pence was be the favorite down here,” said Clay- Wire. at the Statehouse and met with family bourn. “It would be impossible for Call 317-627-6746. organizations. someone to seriously challenge him During an appearance on if he ran.” Also noteworthy about the Howey Politics Indiana energy with Daniels last June, the Vanderburgh Lincoln Dinner was the 6255 N. Evanston Ave. term-limited governor appeared to be absence of Lt. Gov. Becky Skillman. Indianapolis, IN 46220 extremely cordial to Pence, prompting Pence’s office was contacted several long-time Republican heavy- by HPI for comment and an interview weights to speculate that these would with the congressman for this story, Contact Us be the hands passing the Hoosier torch. but no one was talking. There was no www.howeypolitics.com Last January in an HPI Inter- attempt to nip the presidential talk. view, Pence explained of his plans, Pence’s added exposure on [email protected] “If you had asked me the day before Capitol Hill and with the cable news Main Office: 317-506-0883. Election Day whether I would be on networks may be providing a different Howey’s Mobile: 317-506-0883. a path to leadership, you would have path. Indianapolis Fax: 317-254-0535. heard what other folks heard when they The logic of a potential Pence approached me on Capitol Hill. I would path to the White House also figured Washington: 202-256-5822. have given you a definitive no. When I to run through the Indiana State- Business Office: 317-627-6746. started getting the calls the day after house. Modern Presidents Carter, Rea- ©2009, Howey Politics the election, I was drafted by conserva- gan, Clinton and George W. Bush, as tives and liberals and Republican lead- well as both Roosevelts and Woodrow Indiana . All rights reserved. ers and I just felt a sense of duty; my Wilson went from governorships to Photocopying, Internet forwarding, colleagues thought I had something to the presidency. President Nixon was faxing or reproducing in any form, offer at that particular time for the con- temporarily derailed by a California in whole or part, is a violation of ference and I was pleased to do that.” gubernatorial loss. Pence continued, “Decisions House members don’t have a federal law without permission from about our future will be made as time clear path or much of a track record the publisher. goes on. I’m not a long term planner. to the White House or the West Wing. This conference position wasn’t in my President Gerald Ford was an excep - HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 3 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, Oct. 8, 2009 tion, with Nixon plucking him out of the House to the vice and the anti-establishment lane. If Pence is running as presidency in 1973 before he resigned in 1974. In 1964, a Republican establishment conservative, he will have to Sen. Barry Goldwater picked U.S. Rep. William E. Miller of beat out (former Gov.) Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich for New York for his ticket. After that landslide loss to Presi- the lead in the establishment lane. If he is an anti-estab- dent Johnson, Miller went back to practicing law. Twenty lishment conservative (tough to do when you are in the years later, Walter Mondale did the same with U.S. Rep. congressional leadership), he would be fighting (former Geraldine Ferraro, who subsequently lost not only that governors) Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee for the anti-es- race, but also a New York U.S. Senate run in which she was tablishment niche.” initially favored. Pence reminds Sautter of former U.S. Sen. Sam Former U.S. Rep. Jack Kemp was a presidential Brownback of Kansas (now running for governor). “Like campaign fixture (and a Pence hero) but Kemp enhanced Brownback, Pence is an articulate, well-respected political his resume via cabinet of President George H.W. Bush, leader with substantial Washington experience,” Sautter as well as a 1996 vice presidential nomination. Pence has said. “But he doesn’t fit cleanly in either the establishment been influenced by Kemp’s Chicago school of supply side or anti-establishment mold. Therefore, it will be difficult for economics and fiscal discipline. him to get much traction either in raising money or garner- Democratic political consultant and HPI columnist ing substantial support.” Chris Sautter told HPI, “I could see Pence running, but it A potential drag for Pence was revealed in a is difficult to see how he gets very far. When you run for Quinnipiac Poll released on Wednesday. It showed that President, you need to start out with a large enough base Congressional Republicans - with Pence as a conspicuous to attract sufficient supporters and money to compete spokesman - are facing an approve/disapprove rating of 64 nationally. The inherent lack of national base is one reason - 25 percent with 42 percent of Republican voters disap- House members historically do not perform well running for proving; Only 29 percent think Republicans on Capitol Hill President. Pence may be a player of sorts in the House, but are acting in good faith; Voters trust President Obama nationally hardly anyone has heard of him.” more than Republicans 47 - 31 percent to handle health Sautter noted the campaign of U.S. Rep. Dick care; Voters 53 - 25 percent have an unfavorable opinion of Gephardt, who was “the last House member who ran a se- the Republican Party.