Was Louis XIV Wrong? Socio-Economic Consequences of Protestantism in Early Modern France ∗ CÉDRIC CHAMBRU May 28, 2019 Please do not circulate without permission. Abstract This paper examines the determinants of the spread of Protestantism in sixteenth-century France and the socio-economic consequences associated with the revocation of the Edict of Nantes in 1685. I combine new data on the location of collegiate churches and printing presses with information on the presence of Protestant temples at the city level. I show that towns with more collegiate churches in 1520 were less likely to house a Protestant temple in 1567. In addition, I find that having a printing press in 1500 reduced the likelihood of housing a Protestant temple in 1567. Second, I investigate the relationship between Protes- tantism and the literacy rate of male in the late 17th century (1686–90) and the late 18th century (1786–90). Increasing the share of Huguenots in a department by one percentage point increased the male literacy rate by 2.3 per cent in 1686–90. The effect persisted over the 18th century. Using new data on the place of origin of Huguenot refugees after 1685, I show that the effect of Protestantism on literacy was weaker in departments in which the share of Huguenot refugees was above the national mean. Turning to the analysis of the economic consequences of the Revocation, I find the departure of Huguenots had no effect on the agricultural productivity, as measured by annual changes in wheat prices. Depart- ments with a higher share of refugees, nonetheless, experienced less subsistence-related conflicts after 1685. Keywords: Protestantism; Revocation; Migration; Human Capital; Economic Develop- ment; France. JEL: N34: O15; Z12. ∗Paul Bairoch Institute of Economic History, University of Geneva, [email protected]. 1 1 Introduction In recent years, the effect of religion, and more broadly of cultural values, on economic perfor- mance has attracted much attention in the public debate and the scientific literature.1 Relatedly, a growing literature has sought to identify the causes of the adoption of the Reformation and to revisit Max Weber’s theory linking Protestant ethic and economic growth. These studies use the social, economic, and institutional disruptions brought by the Reformation in the Holy Roman Empire (HRE) to connect the spread of Protestantism to the evolution of human capi- tal, the reallocation of economic resources, innovation, political mobilisation and governance, intrapersonal violence (suicide), and the persistence of cultural values (see Becker, Pfaff and Rubin(2016) for a literature survey). 2 Becker, Pfaff and Rubin(2016, p. 3) point out that “the HRE is just one case”, which questions whether these empirical findings can be generalised to other settings.3 To my knowledge, no research examines the causes and consequences of Protestantism in early modern France. I address these questions as follows. First, I document the effect of demand- and supply-side factors on the diffusion of Protes- tantism from the 1550s onward.4 Ekelund, Hébert and Tollison(2006) argue that, prior to the Reformation, the Catholic church can be considered as a monopolistic firm providing religious services. In towns where the level of spiritual services was high, individuals had lower in- citations to chose another firm to supply those services. Funded by legacies from wealthy testators, collegiate churches were churches where canons would maintain a daily office of worship and masses, and sometimes offered charity for the local population.5 I collect data on the location of collegiate churches in 1520, and other demand- and supply-side factors that 1See Iyer(2016) and Spolaore and Wacziarg(2013) for literature surveys. 2In October 1517, Luther published his Ninety-five theses to criticise the selling of plenary indulgences– a pay- ment to the Catholic Church that purchased an exemption from punishment for some types of sins. Reformers hoped to change the civic constitution of society and demanded profound transformations in liturgy and religious teaching. To most historians, this event symbolises the beginning of the Protestant Reformation and emerges as an epoch-marking moment in European history. Dixon(2017) provides some useful explanations of why the publica- tion of the Ninety-five theses remains as the defining moment in early modern Reformation history. 3Becker, Pfaff and Rubin(2016, p. 22) further note that “We suspect that more research is feasible using micro- regional data from England and Scotland, the Netherlands, Poland, and the Austro-Hungarian Empire, all of which ended up, during or after the Reformation period, with sizeable populations of different confessional groups. Some of these regions had natural experiments imposed upon them by border changes, forced population movements, or Communist governments, any of which might be useful for causal identification of outcomes”. 4Treasure(2013) notes that French Protestantism was mainly Calvinist and responded to time and spatial dy- namics distinct from the Lutheran movement. In particular, Protestantism really gained strength from the 1550s onward and reached its peak before the start of the second War of Religion. By 1567, there were about 1,000 Re- formed churches scattered across the kingdom. French Protestants (Huguenots) then amounted to approximately 10 per cent of the population. Various factors would attract members of different social groups to the ideas of the Reformation: grievances against the clergy’s tax exemption, martyrdom, patronage, the actions of pastors from Geneva, adverse economic conditions, printing presses, and the power of the evangelical message. 5Collegiate churches were thus very similar in spirit to the English chantry foundations, which provided an endowment for the purpose of employing priests to sing masses to benefit the souls of deceased persons. 2 could affect the diffusion of Protestantism.6 I match this data set with information on strength of Protestantism at the city-level in 1567. I geocode all Protestant temples listed in Mours(1958) and I calculate for every town the number of Protestant temples within 20 km of the city centre in 1567.7 My analysis focuses on a set of 99 French towns derived from Bosker, Buringh and Van Zanden(2013). I show that towns with more collegiate churches, a proxy for the provision of religious services, in 1520 were less likely to host a Protestant temple in 1567. On average, every additional collegiate church resulted in 0.3 less Protestant temple. Additionally, I show that printing presses tend to be negative associated, albeit not system- atically, with the likelihood to house a Protestant temple. This result contradicts previous evidence on the role of printing presses (Rubin, 2014), but is consistent with historical evi- dence. During the first half of the 16th century, many laws and edicts limited the diffusion of Protestants materials, so that most of the production of Protestant books and pamphlets came from Geneva. The repressive framework against heretical books and their printers meant that Catholics could benefit more easily from printing presses to defend and diffuse their ideas. This interpretation is in line with Dittmar and Seabold(2015) who show that printing press played an important role in the diffusion of ideas and the spread of Protestantism in cities with competitive media markets, but not in cities with media monopolies. Second, I examine the socio-economic consequences of Protestantism in the short- and medium- run. In the wake of Weber’s thesis, many scholars have associated Protestantism to the rise of modern capitalism in Western Europe and seek to establish if the relationship between the characteristics attributed to Protestantism– e.g. hard work, increased saving, human capital– and economic growth is robust (Iyer, 2016).8 Following Becker and Woessmann(2009), I inves- tigate the association between Protestantism and the literacy rate in the late 17th century (1686– 90) and the late 18th century (1786–90). During the 17th century, many Protestant schools were created as a mean of spreading literate and religious education, a central principal of Protestant beliefs.9 I collect data on Huguenots population estimates circa 1670 at the department level 6The COLÉMON database aims at establishing the corpus of monasteries and collegiate churches of France between 816 and 1563. 7In 1562, the Edict of Saint-Germain recognised the existence of Huguenots and granted them to right to wor- ship publicly outside of towns. Many temples were thus located in the suburb or in a neighbouring village. See Section 3.1 for more details. 8Delacroix and Nielsen(2001) provide a critical view on the relationship between Protestantism and the rise of modern capitalism in Western Europe. Using cross-country analysis, they show that Protestantism is not positively associated with societal indicators of industrial capitalist development in the 19th century. These indicators include the total wealth per capita in 1890, the year of founding of principal stock exchange, the extension of railroads network in 1870 and 1890, and the percentage of male labour force in industry circa 1870. See also (Andersen et al., 2017; Hoffman, 2006, pp. 82–4). 9See, for instance, Astoul(1996, 1999). 3 (Benedict, 1991; Mours, 1958). By ending toleration, the revocation of the Edict of Nantes in 1685 triggered an unprecedented exodus in French history: approximately 150,000 to 200,000 Huguenots decided to flee persecutions and forced conversions and sought refuge in neigh- bouring Protestant countries, including Switzerland, Prussia, the Netherlands and England.10 To document the magnitude of the population loss occurring after 1685, I complement these data with a new data set on the estimated share of Huguenots who sought refuge abroad at the department level.11 I construct this data set from the Refuge Huguenots database assembled by Magdelaine(2014). I collect information on the place of origin of all Huguenot refugees when it was available (about 60,000 observations) and match it with modern day location to associate each refugee with a department.