MONTHLY NEWS SCAN Tinjauan Berita Bulanan Compiled by IDS Vol. 24 Issue 12 IDS Online http://www.ids.org.my 1 – 31 December 2019 HIGHLIGHTS from leaving the EU, analysis for ANZSCEP, Singapore's first and New FOCUS BBC Newsnight has suggested. Zealand's second bilateral Free Trade Independent trade experts from the Agreement (FTA) that became • Trump ‘signs off’ on deal to pause UK Trade Policy Observatory effective Jan 1, 2001, the Ministry for US-China trade war (UKTPO) looked at the likely impact Trade and Industry said on Monday • South-east Asia may soon need a of US, Australian and New Zealand (Dec 30). The agreement will address ‘Plan B’ to deal with low free trade deals. They found that even modern trade issues and improve trade inflation: S&P Global Ratings combined, new tariff-cutting rules and provisions that are in line • ‘Malaysia on track towards agreements were likely to boost the with newer FTAs that Singapore and developed nation status’ UK economy by just 0.4%. (11 New Zealand have entered into. (30 • Malaysia enters new era of December, BBC News) December, The Straits Times) economic momentum with Bandar Malaysia revival - IQI Global Trade disputes settlement system Australia government downgrades • Japanese firm inks RM100m facing crisis: The World Trade outlook for economy, budget investment in Lahad Datu POIC Organization is facing a crisis in its surplus: Australia’s conservative • Mega Free Trade Zone to be set up system for resolving disputes between government recently cut its outlook in Putatan its members. It has an appeal "court" for growth in the economy and wages that is the final arbiter on such as part of a A$33 billion downgrade to INTERNATIONAL disputes and which is about to become expected revenues over the next four ANTARABANGSA unable to function. WTO rules say years. Weak household spending and three judges have to hear each case. stagnant wage growth were blamed Trump ‘signs off’ on deal to pause On 10 December the number goes for the miss, though strong company US-China trade war: Asian stock below that level. Only one will be left. tax receipts and the falling cost of markets rose as the US and China The terms of the other two come to an borrowing provided a timely buffer. moved toward striking a trade deal to end, and no replacements have been (16 December, Reuters) avert a new round of tariffs. The deal chosen. (8 December, BBC News) could be announced after US French growth to keep mostly President Donald Trump reportedly South Korea Dec. inflation up, but steady through mid 2020: INSEE: signed off on the terms. Washington is 2019 rate tumbles to record low: France’s economy is set to maintain a said to have agreed to remove some South Korea’s consumer prices rose largely steady pace of growth through tariffs, while Beijing would boost 0.7% in December from a year earlier, to the middle of 2020, dipping only purchases of US farm goods. (13 much faster than in the previous slightly at the start of the year as trade December, BBC News) month and just a notch above the weighs, the INSEE stats agency market’s expectations, official data forecasted. The euro zone’s second South-east Asia may soon need a showed. Compared with a month biggest economy was on course for ‘Plan B’ to deal with low inflation: earlier, the consumer price index rose growth of 0.3% in the final three S&P Global Ratings: South-east 0.2% in December, the data from months of the year, unchanged from Asia is set for another year of low Statistics Korea showed. The median the previous quarter and from inflation, generating difficult choices forecast from a Reuters survey was for INSEE’s previous forecast, it said in for the region's central banks. S&P the index to rise 0.6% in December its quarterly economic outlook. (18 Global Ratings sees inflation on-year, up from a 0.2% gain in December, Reuters) remaining below central bank targets November, and by 0.1% on-month, in most cases in 2020, according to compared with a 0.6% fall. (31 Japan’s output and retail sales fall, Shaun Roache, S&P's chief APAC December, Reuters) signalling economic strains: Japan's economist in Singapore. industrial output slipped for the Policymakers may soon have to think New Zealand-Singapore upgraded second straight month in November, about using tools other than interest economic agreement ratified: The raising the likelihood the economy rates to achieve their policy goals, he upgraded Agreement between New will contract in the fourth quarter due said. (20 December, The Straits Zealand and Singapore on a Closer to slowing demand abroad and at Times) Economic Partnership (ANZSCEP) home. Japan’s economy has cooled in has been ratified by the two nations recent months due to a prolonged hit Brexit: Free trade deals ‘won’t and will enter into force on Jan 1, to exports from soft global demand offset leaving EU’: Post-Brexit trade 2020. The upgraded agreement adds and a slide in consumer spending deals will not make up for the e-commerce and regulatory following a nationwide tax hike. (27 economic damage inflicted on the UK cooperation chapters to the December, The Straits Times) 1 – 31 December 2019 MONTHLY NEWS SCAN (Tinjauan Berita Bulanan) 1 2020 Article IV Consultation with and Industry statement. (13 NATIONAL Malaysia. (19 December, The Star) December, The Star) NASIONAL Inflation to rise to 2.4 pct in 2020 on Malaysia’s GDP revised downward ‘Malaysia on track towards petrol subsidy policy - MIDF to 4.5 pct for 2020: World Bank: developed nation status’: The Research: MIDF Research expects Malaysia’s economy is expected to increase in the number of inflationary pressure to surge to 2.4 expand at relatively moderate pace establishments operating in the per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2020 despite the continued uncertainty and wholesale and retail trade sector, mainly due to the government’s petrol external headwinds, predicts World coupled with the higher Internet usage subsidy policy. Inflation in 2019 is Bank Group. “We expect private among them, shows that Malaysia is estimated to settle at around 0.6 per consumption to be the primary anchor moving towards a developed nation cent y-o-y, which is lower than one of Malaysia’s growth for next year as status, according to the Department of per cent in 2018. Head of Research well as a return of positive Statistics Malaysia. Citing the Mohd Redza Abdul Rahman said the contribution in terms of trade and Preliminary Report Wholesale and price of RON95 had been capped at investment, although the performance Retail Trade Census 2019 (WRC RM2.08 per litre since February this will still be relatively subdued given year, lower than the average price of 2019) launched recently, Chief the uncertainties around global growth Statistician Datuk Seri Dr Mohd Uzir RM2.20 in 2018, instigating and economic activities,” lead Mahidin said the number of downward pressure to the overall economist for macroeconomics, trade establishments operating in wholesale inflation this year particularly through and investment Dr Richard Record the transport index. However, the and retail trade grew 4.8% to 468,930 said. Further, there is also an in 2018 from 370,725 in 2013. “The government’s decision to introduce a anticipation on the acceleration of percentage of Internet usage among new targeted fuel subsidy starting public investment sector over time the establishments jumped to 83.4% in January 2020 would have spillover following the government’s revision 2018 from 72.2% in 2013,”. (28 effects on other basket components of mega-infrastructure projects, he such as food. (17 December, said. (9 December, Business Times) December, The Star) Bernama) Malaysia enters new era of Malaysia's IPI rises 0.3% y-o-y in Malaysia’s Oct exports drop 6.7 per economic momentum with Bandar October: The Industrial Production Malaysia revival - IQI Global: The cent, slower than forecast: Index of Malaysia grew 0.3% in Malaysia's exports fell for the third Pakatan Harapan (PH) government October as compared with the same has sent a very clear message to local straight month in October, though the month last year, underpinned by an and global investors that it will pace of decline was slower than increase in the manufacturing and continue to maintain macroeconomic expected, government data showed. electricity indices. This marked the stability to drive the economy Exports shrank 6.7 per cent in slowest rate of expansion since forward, said IQI Global Chief October, slower than the sharp 12.6 February 2013, when output had Economist Shan Saeed. He pointed per cent contraction forecast by fallen 4.4%, and was well below the analysts in a Reuters poll. In out the revived Bandar Malaysia, with median growth forecast of 1.6% in a an estimated total gross development September, exports had fallen 6.8 per Bloomberg survey of economists. The cent, the biggest drop in three years. value of RM140 billion, would herald Department of Statistics Malaysia said a new era of economic momentum Exports to China, one of Malaysia's in a statement that output in the biggest trade partners, fell 11 per cent that benefited the masses. manufacturing sector rose 2.2% year- “Engagement and collaboration with in October, on lower shipments of on-year (y-o-y) in October, as Chinese companies bring huge electrical and electronic goods, compared to 2.5% in September. (12 petroleum and chemical products and December, The Star) dividends to local players, as they would learn and rewind to align crude oil, data from the International Trade and Industry Ministry showed.