Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 2015-06 German foreign and security policy: determinants of German military engagement in Africa since 2011 Hanisch, Michael Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/45864 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS GERMAN FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY: DETERMINANTS OF GERMAN MILITARY ENGAGEMENT IN AFRICA SINCE 2011 by Michael Hanisch June 2015 Thesis Advisor: Donald Abenheim Co-Advisor: Carolyn Halladay Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704–0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington, DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED June 2015 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS GERMAN FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY: DETERMINANTS OF GERMAN MILITARY ENGAGEMENT IN AFRICA SINCE 2011 6. AUTHOR(S) Michael Hanisch 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School REPORT NUMBER Monterey, CA 93943-5000 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING N/A AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. IRB Protocol number ____N/A____. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) Beginning in 2014, high-level German politicians spoke plainly about a more responsible and more substantial German foreign policy—including stronger German (military) contributions and commitments on the African continent. In light of these public statements, three years of mixed policy outcomes have raised questions about the factors that determine Germany’s decision making on military engagements in Africa (and elsewhere) and the extent to which Germany’s engagement in Africa since 2011 corresponds with Berlin’s desire to take greater responsibility in matters of global security. Anchored in the case studies of Libya and Mali, this thesis argues that within a complex interplay of determinants on three interrelated levels, six factors—strategic approaches (if applicable), multilateral imperatives, the mission framework, cultural and conceptual axioms, domestic politics, and policy-makers—chiefly inform Germany’s decision-making process on whether and how German soldiers should be deployed in a certain mission. Based on this matrix of considerations, each such participation must be externally required, politically desired and indispensable, militarily affordable and feasible, and domestically justifiable. The thesis concludes that it is exactly the interrelated tenets of “empower others,” “being restrained,” and “being responsible” that drive German foreign and security policy and contributed to Germany’s active but modest military engagements in Africa after Libya. 14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF Germany, Africa, foreign and security policy, international military engagement, decision-making PAGES process, explanatory model, levels of influence, external and internal factors, multilateralism, national 291 interest, mission framework, domestic politization, public opinion, strategic culture, role concepts, 16. PRICE CODE state actors, military restraint, responsibility, Libya, Mali. 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU NSN 7540–01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2–89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239–18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited GERMAN FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY: DETERMINANTS OF GERMAN MILITARY ENGAGEMENT IN AFRICA SINCE 2011 Michael Hanisch Lieutenant Colonel, German Army Diploma, German Armed Forces University, Hamburg, 2003 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN SECURITY STUDIES (MIDDLE EAST, SOUTH ASIA, AND SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA) from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL June 2015 Author: Michael Hanisch Approved by: Donald Abenheim, PhD Thesis Advisor Carolyn Halladay, PhD Co-Advisor Mohammed M. Hafez, PhD Chair, Department of National Security Affairs iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT Beginning in 2014, high-level German politicians spoke plainly about a more responsible and more substantial German foreign policy—including stronger German (military) contributions and commitments on the African continent. In light of these public statements, three years of mixed policy outcomes have raised questions about the factors that determine Germany’s decision making on military engagements in Africa (and elsewhere) and the extent to which Germany’s engagement in Africa since 2011 corresponds with Berlin’s desire to take greater responsibility in matters of global security. Anchored in the case studies of Libya and Mali, this thesis argues that within a complex interplay of determinants on three inter-related levels, six factors—strategic approaches (if applicable), multilateral imperatives, the mission framework, cultural and conceptual axioms, domestic politics, and policy-makers—chiefly inform Germany’s decision-making process on whether and how German soldiers should be deployed in a certain mission. Based on this matrix of considerations, each such participation must be externally required, politically desired and indispensable, militarily affordable and feasible, and domestically justifiable. The thesis concludes that it is exactly the inter- related tenets of “empower others,” “being restrained,” and “being responsible” that drive German foreign and security policy and contributed to Germany’s active but modest military engagements in Africa after Libya. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................1 A. MAJOR RESEARCH QUESTIONS .............................................................4 B. IMPORTANCE ................................................................................................5 C. LITERATURE REVIEW ...............................................................................9 1. Continuing the “Culture of Restraint” or Becoming a “Normal Ally”? ..................................................................................................10 2. Reflexive Multilateralism or Domestic Politics? .............................15 3. National Interests—Which, Where, and How? ...............................19 4. Policy and Decision Makers—Movers and Shakers? .....................21 D. PROBLEMS AND HYPOTHESES .............................................................21 E. METHODS AND SOURCES........................................................................24 F. THESIS OVERVIEW ...................................................................................26 II. GERMAN FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY DECISIONS FOR INTERNATIONAL MILITARY ENGAGEMENTS—AN EXPLANATORY APPROACH ...............................................................................................................29 A. INTEGRATIVE THREE-LEVEL MODEL: INFLUENCES ON GERMAN FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY DECISIONS FOR INTERNATIONAL MILITARY ENGAGEMENTS .................................30 B. DETERMINANTS ON THE EXTERNAL LEVEL ...................................33 1. International Power and Security Environment .............................34 2. National Interests and Strategies ......................................................39 3. Multilateral Integration.....................................................................43 4. Evolution and Status of Military Engagement ................................50 5. Mission Framework ...........................................................................55 C. DETERMINANTS ON THE INTERNAL LEVEL ....................................60 1. Strategic Culture and Conception of National Role .......................60 2. Parliament and Political Contestation .............................................68 3. Public Opinion ....................................................................................72 D. DETERMINANTS ON THE ACTOR LEVEL ..........................................78 III. LIBYA—A “NORMAL” SPECIAL CASE: AMBIVALENT PREMISES OF GERMAN FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY ................................................85 A. CONTEXT AND FRAMEWORK OF THE DECISION-MAKING- PROCESS .......................................................................................................89 B. EVOLUTION OF THE INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT AND GERMANY’S DECISION-MAKING