World Trade Statistical Review 2021 8% 4.3 111.7 4% 3% 0.0 -0.2 -0.7 Insurance and pension services Financial services Computer services -3.3 -5.4 World Trade StatisticalWorld Review 2021 -15.5 93.7 cultural and Personal, services recreational -14% Construction -18% 2021Q1 2019Q4 2019Q3 2020Q1 2020Q4 2020Q3 2020Q2 Merchandise trade volume About the WTO The World Trade Organization deals with the global rules of trade between nations. Its main function is to ensure that trade flows as smoothly, predictably and freely as possible. About this publication World Trade Statistical Review provides a detailed analysis of the latest developments in world trade. It is the WTO’s flagship statistical publication and is produced on an annual basis. For more information All data used in this report, as well as additional charts and tables not included, can be downloaded from the WTO web site at www.wto.org/statistics World Trade Statistical Review 2021 I. Introduction 4 Acknowledgements 6 A message from Director-General 7 II. Highlights of world trade in 2020 and the impact of COVID-19 8 World trade overview 10 Merchandise trade 12 Commercial services 15 Leading traders 18 Least-developed countries 19 III. World trade and economic growth, 2020-21 20 Trade and GDP in 2020 and early 2021 22 Merchandise trade volume 23 Commodity prices 26 Exchange rates 27 Merchandise and services trade values 28 Leading indicators of trade 31 Economic recovery from COVID-19 34 IV. Composition, definitions & methodology 40 Composition of geographical and economic groupings 42 Definitions and methodology 42 Specific notes for selected economies 49 Statistical sources 50 Abbreviations and symbols 51 V. Statistical tables 52 3 Chapter I Introduction Acknowledgements 06 A message from Director-General 07 104 115 World Trade Statistical Review 2021 Acknowledgements This publication has been prepared under the direction of The International Trade Statistics Section also wishes to Robert Koopman, Director of the Economic Research and thank colleagues from the Information and External Relations Statistics Division, and the International Trade Statistics Division (IERD) and the Language and Documentation Section. The coordination of the report was undertaken by Services Division (LDSD) whose collaboration is vital Christophe Degain and Florian Eberth. Statistical research, in the production of this report. In particular, recognition data compilation and the preparation of estimates were is due to Anthony Martin, Serge Marin-Pache and Steve conducted by Barbara d’Andrea-Adrian, Shradha Bhatia, Lori Cooper in IERD and to the French and Spanish translators Chang, Christophe Degain, Florian Eberth, Zineb Haj Nassar, in LDIMD. Coleman Nee, Steen Wettstein, and Ying Yan. Finally, we wish to thank the users of WTO statistics for their Contributions to this publication were also provided by the constructive suggestions on how to improve our statistical WTO’s Market Access Intelligence Section and Research output. This regular feedback allows us to constantly refine Group of the Economic Research and Statistics Division. the data we provide. 6 Chapter I: Introduction A message from Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala The COVID-19 pandemic has had devastating consequences across the world. Millions of people have lost their lives, and large sections of the world’s population, particularly in developing and least developed countries, remain unvaccinated. The worst economic downturn since the 1930s has disrupted livelihoods and businesses everywhere. Extreme poverty and hunger are on the rise, and employment is well below the pre-crisis trend. This publication presents recent trends in world trade and seeks to provide statistical insights on the trade impact of COVID-19. cent in 2020. In contrast, demand for computer services was buoyant, reflecting the shift to remote work and the growth in In 2020, the value of world merchandise exports declined digital platforms. by 8 per cent while services trade contracted by 21 per cent. The most severe impacts of the pandemic were felt in the Exports from least-developed countries (LDCs) were severely second quarter of the year, when services trade dropped affected by the first wave of the pandemic in 2020. They by a record 30 per cent as travel and transport were severely suffered in particular from the drop in fuel prices (-60 per cent affected, while goods trade fell by 23 per cent, both in between January and April 2020) and the impact of restrictions value terms. on the travel industry. These two sectors represent the largest source of LDCs’ export earnings. LDCs’ fuel exports have Trade began to recover as of mid-2020, but the effects of started to slowly stabilize since early 2021 but services trade COVID-19 have varied significantly across countries and continues to be weighed down by persisting weakness in the regions. In volume terms, which strip out the effects of travel and transport sectors. fluctuating prices, Asia’s merchandise trade was down by only 0.5 per cent in 2020, compared to the global decline of 5.3 per Leading indicators confirm positive signs of recovery in goods cent. Asia’s resilience was due to the relative success of many trade during the second quarter of 2021, but purchasing countries at containing the virus’s spread in early 2020, managers’ indices suggest weaker growth in services trade. together with the region’s role as a leading global supplier As of May 2021, the number of international flights was just of consumer goods and medical products. In the first quarter over half their pre-pandemic level. A full recovery for of 2021, merchandise export volumes were up in Asia and international travel, and for global trade in general, depends Europe. They were down slightly in South and Central America on rapid, equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines around the and North America, and more substantially in Africa and the world. Indeed, with much of the world still unvaccinated, the Middle East. Across manufacturing sectors, the automotive emergence of new coronavirus variants is one of the leading sector suffered the most, with world exports dropping by 16 threats to the economic and trade recovery. per cent in 2020. Meanwhile global exports of textiles grew by 16 per cent, driven by an increase in the production of personal The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated digital transformation, protective equipment (PPE). Exports of medical products, including with regard to the international exchange of goods including medicines, medical equipment and PPE, rose by and services. This trend increases potential trading more than 16 per cent, underscoring how trade has been a opportunities for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises lifeline for access to critical goods through the pandemic, after (MSMEs) and women, provided they can overcome supply- the initial disruptions. side barriers. It also emphasizes the need to tackle the digital divide. From a statistical standpoint, there is a strong need to Global value chains were severely disrupted during the first half improve the measurement of digital trade. of 2020. World exports of intermediate goods decreased by 10 per cent year-on-year. Trade was more resilient in value Finally, I would like to thank the statistical team and the chains for high-tech goods and pharmaceutical/medical other divisions across the WTO who worked on this report. products. Trade in intermediate goods across countries started We hope it provides useful insights to assist trade analysts to recover in the third quarter of 2020. and policymakers. As of the first quarter of 2021, global trade in commercial services remained 9 per cent lower than in the same period in 2020. The travel sector was the most affected, as border closures, quarantine requirements, lockdowns, and other Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala restrictions caused global travel exports to decline by 62 per Director-General 7 Chapter II Highlights of world trade in 2020 and the impact of COVID-19 World trade overview 10 Merchandise trade 12 Commercial services 15 Leading traders 18 Least-developed countries (LDCs) 19 108 119 World Trade Statistical Review 2021 World trade overview Trade in goods and services experienced a deep slump in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic Chart 2.1 World trade in goods and commercial services, 2010-2020, quarterly (Year-on-year percentage change) 40 30 20 Commercial services 10 0 -10 Year-on-year percentage change Year-on-year Goods -20 -30 -40 Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3Q4 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: WTO-UNCTAD-ITC. Note: Trade as average of exports and imports. • The COVID-19 pandemic led to merchandise trade declining demand for essential goods held up in all major economies. by 8 per cent and trade in commercial services contracting Unlike goods, services cannot be stockpiled, which means by 21 per cent year-on-year in 2020. that most of the revenue losses are likely to be permanent. • The effect of COVID-19 on goods and services differed, • As businesses adjusted to new working conditions and with services more severely affected. Services declined by vaccines began to be rolled out in the last quarter of 2020, 30 per cent in the second quarter of 2020 compared with trade in goods saw a recovery of 1 per cent compared with a fall of 23 per cent for goods in the same period. While its pre-pandemic level in Q4 of 2019. lockdowns led to the cancellation of flights, holidays abroad, restaurant meals, and cultural/recreational activities, the 10 Chapter II: Highlights of world trade in 2020 and the impact of COVID-19 30 25 6 20 6 5 5 5 Trade in goods and services 15 US $ trillion 10 World trade in goods and services amounted to 16 17 19 18 17 US$ 22 trillion in 2020, a 12 per cent decline compared 5 with 2019.