CHEVENING FELLOWSHIPS ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE Index Introduction to Chevening Fellowships . 5 Foreword by the Course Director . 6 Africa . 11 Stephen N. Mutimba (Kenya) . 12 Asia . .17 Upik Sitti Aslia Kamil (Indonesia) . .18 Samir Saran (India) . 25 Yauntang Yu (China) . .44 Australia . 47 Brad Page (Australia) . .48 Brer Adams (Australia) . .51 Europe & Russia . 55 Cristian-Marius Moisoiu (Romania) . .56 Maria Zhevlakova (Russian Federation) . .67 3 Latin America & Caribbean . 79 Marisol Rivera Planter (Mexico) . 80 Dr Paulette Bynoe (Guyana) . .85 Aloisio L.P. de Melo (Brazil) . 98 Travis Sinckler (Barbados) . 105 Augusto Townsend Klinge (Peru) . 120 North America . 127 Andrew Schwartz (United States) . 128 Dahlia Stein (Canada) . 131 Contributing Fellows . 143 Acronyms . 145 4 Introduction to Chevening Fellowships encourage international policy debates on the various Fellowship subjects. The network of Chevening alumni is now over 34,000 strong and includes current or former prime ministers, presidents, captains of industry and other senior and prominent figures. The Economics of Climate Change Chevening Fellowship course has been run by the University of Cambridge Programme for Sustainability Leadership for three years. I would like to congratulate the Fellows who attended previous courses and the University of Cambridge for putting together this collection of thought-provoking essays. The Chevening programme is the British The essays are a mix of detailed research Government’s flagship scholarship and pieces outlining specific recommendations fellowship scheme. Its overall purpose is to for policy change in Fellows’ home countries, build a long-term network of future friends and thought pieces on what climate and of the UK in senior positions who will help to economics means for their particular regions. support delivery of the FCO’s (Foreign and Commonwealth Office’s) Strategic Framework. The programme consists of the Chevening Scholarship scheme and the Chevening Fellowship scheme. Fellowships are awards for study on 12-week courses that focus on particular issues aligned to the FCO’s Strategic Framework. The courses are bespoke, and are Mike Stead delivered by prestigious universities in the UK Chevening Fellowship Adviser, Public on behalf of the FCO. Fellowships are offered Diplomacy and Strategic Campaigns Team, FCO to mid-career professionals from around the world and who are in positions of leadership and influence and are active in the field of the Fellowship. At the end of each course, Fellows return home and our network of diplomatic missions maintain contact with them to Introduction 5 Foreword by the Course Director styles used – from thought pieces to academic research papers – and we have kept this variety to allow the reader to see the different approaches to the issue of climate change, not only from different regions but also different sectors (academia, business, media and government). The essays have been edited by Emma Williams but we hope not to have altered the conclusions and contents in this process. The Fellows were asked to reflect on their own position in this debate and therefore the essays do not necessarily represent the positions of the Fellows’ organisations or governments. Introduction We have not been able to reach out to all of The University of Cambridge Programme for our previous Fellows on this occasion and we Sustainability Leadership (CPSL) has been can only apologise for the omission of some very pleased to work with the UK Foreign countries and views here – we would welcome and Commonwealth Office and the British their contributions for a future publication! Council to deliver the Chevening Fellowships Programme on the Economics of Climate I would like to take this opportunity to thank Change over the last three years. Over these all of the Fellows who have taken part in the years we have welcomed 36 Chevening Fellows Economics of Climate Change programme to- from China, India, Vietnam, Taiwan, Indonesia, date and I look forward to future years. These Singapore, United States of America, Canada, programmes offer a fantastic opportunity Australia, Brazil, Peru, Mexico, Guyana, Barbados, for us to focus on the key issues around Romania, Russia, Egypt, Kenya and South Africa climate change and hopefully come to some to Cambridge for three months at a time. conclusions as to how each of us can play our small part in developing climate solutions. I This publication brings together fifteen essays can only say sorry for bringing you to such from some of the Fellows. For this publication, a beautiful city during some of the worst Fellows were asked to reflect on climate weather we have had in years (it is not often change and what impacts it would have on we get snowed in and are unable to travel their ‘world’. There are a number of different anywhere!). 6 Foreword Climate politics At the start of 2009, a new President of the Climate change as a political issue has changed United States had just been elected – one who dramatically over the period we have been had promised a very different approach to running this programme. A sense of urgency climate change than his predecessor – and the was building throughout this period. The momentum was building. current phase of the Kyoto Protocol, which sets in place the emissions reduction targets At the start of 2010 the UNFCCC conference in for developed countries, expires in 2012. There Copenhagen, Denmark had just ended with no is an urgent need to have a new international legally binding agreement (and little prospect climate change agreement in place well of one), an increase in climate scepticism and before then. an ongoing global recession. At the start of 2008 we had just had the United These different backdrops led to very different Nations Framework Convention on Climate emphases during the three years of the Change (UNFCCC) conference in Bali, Indonesia. programme and it has been interesting to see This had been an excellent meeting for how the discussion around climate change, galvanising a political process which aimed to and in particular international perceptions, has deliver a legally binding agreement at the end developed. It is very clear that the conversation of 2009 in Copenhagen. today is much more difficult than it has ever Foreword 7 been. The reason for this is that we are now conflict prevention, sustainable consumption, debating the way we are going to tackle the innovation, aspiration, freedom of ideas, free issue, rather than debating whether or not it is trade and technology development. However, an issue that needs to be addressed at all. the simplest definition was: Our programme tries to help Fellows develop “The goal of a good economy is a sense of the scale of the challenge we face to meet people’s needs within and also understand how this fits into the wider economy and solutions around sustainability. ecological limits with equitable For example, during their time with us, the distribution.” Fellows are asked to define the goal of a good economy. The definitions developed include When we examine what the failures of the food and water security, welfare, education, current economy are, very often we come up Failures in our current economy Governance • insufficient incentives and punishments Scale • only now is there a consensus and concern • structural deficiencies (nation states/ of scale superior to nature) • perception of limitless resources • globalisation • history and ‘business as usual’ momentum • culture, lifestyle and aspirations • imbalance/no global governance Measurement • environment not valued/priced • market as a driver • election cycle Human nature/sociological/ • vested interests philosophical deficiencies • greed, immediate needs • tragedy of commons • short termism • flexibility of exploitation • fear, lack of tolerance • public sphere dominated by corporates • omniscience • lack of regulations (national) • knowledge and education • lack of democracy/good democratic process for the individual voice • false hope of technological solution • ‘Western style’ democracy • media – no longer independent ‘public voice’ • current international institutions • great tolerance for inequity 8 Foreword with long lists of key issues that need to be tackled. Some of the key issues that have been identified during the programme are shown on the table on the previous page. Many of these issues are fundamental to the way we have designed and constructed the current economy. While the economic growth over the past century has led to significant gains in tackling poverty, we still have a world which is more unequal than it has ever been and the tolerance for this inequity does not seem to be reducing. The governance around climate solutions is in urgent need of review. It is clear that the Often we may wish to deconstruct the political process finds it difficult to tackle these global economy and start again. However, long-term, global issues. While we hope we it is interesting that human nature has been have enough time for the political wheels identified as a key issue – if we were to start to turn and reach agreement, this is looking again wouldn’t we just end up in the same increasingly doubtful. Therefore, as happened position, given that it is we who would be after the Second World War, there may be doing the redesign? a need for a fundamental review of global governance and to de-couple the climate So the important issue is, given that we are challenge from short-term politics. This global starting from this position, what should be challenge goes to the heart of the role, and the next step to achieving a global solution power, of international institutions such as the that works for individual nations, however United Nations, the Multilateral Development they are governed, and builds a long-term Banks and the World Trade Organization. process of change that allows individuals and governments to each play their role in Measuring carbon is actually the easiest part achieving this change? of this.