Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 1995-06 Small states and the balance of power Choi, Insu Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/31415 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS SMALL STATES AND THE BALANCE OF POWER by Insu Choi June 1995 Thesis Advisor: John Arquilla Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. 19960122 110 REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 9 REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED June 1995 Master's Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE SMALL STATES AND THE BALANCE OF FUNDING NUMBERS POWER 6. AUTHOR(S) Choi, Insu 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) PERFORMING Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION Monterey CA 93943-5000 REPORT NUMBER SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11 SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Ministry of Defense or the Korean Government. 12a. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) The key questions addressed by this study are; which of the two structural theories in international relations explains small state policies better and under what international system structure is the significance of small states enhanced so that they have greater freedom of maneuver. Using the two theories, balance of power and hegemonic change, this thesis extracts several hypotheses about the roles and significance of small states under varying conditions. The basic idea of this effort was that small states are affected largely by both global and regional international systems. Thus, the position, and policy, of a small state is determined more by its international context rather than by its own efforts to consolidate internal strength. From the perspectives of small states, in the hegemonic system they are often constrained in the pursuit of their foreign policies, while in the balance of power system they often can play a role as a balancer. To test this developed hypothesis, and others, this thesis surveys the diplomatic history of the great powers, and selected small states, in Europe from 1815 to 1939; the US-Israeli patron client relationship of the Cold War era; and the nuclear policies of Ukraine and North Korea. These cases illustrate: how a small state is dealt with by stronger powers under varying international system structures, how it may make use of the system and achieve its objectives; and what the main factor is that makes a small state important or insignificant to the international equilibrium. In its concluding chapter, this work derives some implications from the process of proving the hypotheses, and suggests some plausible policies for Korea, a quintessential small state in Northeast Asia, as to how she can play an important role as a balancer in the region. 14.SUBJECT TERMS Small States; Power, Balance of Power; Hegemonic Theory; International System; 15. 179 Balancing: Bandwagoning; The Concert of Europe; The Interwar Period; The Cold War Era; The Post-Cold NUMBER OF PAGES War Era; and The Role of Korea as a Balancer in Northeast Asia 16. PRICE CODE 17. 18. 19. 20. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION SECURITY CLASSIFICATION SECURITY CLASSIFICATION LIMITATION OF OF REPORT OF THIS PAGE OF ABSTRACT ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UL NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 298-102 11 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. SMALL STATES AND THE BALANCE OF POWER Insu Choi Captain, R.O.K. Army B.A., Korea Military Academy, 1985 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Author: Insu Choi Approved by: CJ John ArquillaAhesisArquilla,rrhesis AAdvisor on, Second Reader Thomas C. Bruneau, Chairman Department of National Security Affairs in IV ABSTRACT The key questions addressed by this study are; which of the two structural theories in international relations explains small state policies better and under what international system structure is the significance of small states enhanced so that they have greater freedom of maneuver. Using the two theories, balance of power and hegemonic change, this thesis extracts several hypotheses about the roles and significance of small states under varying conditions. The basic idea of this effort was that small states are affected largely by both global and regional international systems. Thus, the position, and policy, of a small state is determined more by its international context rather than by its own efforts to consolidate internal strength. From the perspectives of small states, in the hegemonic system they are often constrained in the pursuit of their foreign policies, while in the balance of power system they often can play a role as a balancer. To test this developed hypothesis, and others, this thesis surveys the diplomatic history of the great powers, and selected small states, in Europe from 1815 to 1939; the US-Israeli patron client relationship of the Cold War era; and the nuclear policies of Ukraine and North Korea. These cases illustrate: how a small state is dealt with by stronger powers under varying international system structures, how it may make use of the system and achieve its objectives; and what the main factor is that makes a small state important or insignificant to the international equilibrium. In its concluding chapter, this work derives some implications from the process of proving the hypotheses, and suggests some plausible policies for Korea, a quintessential small state in Northeast Asia, as to how she can play an important role as a balancer in the region. VI TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION ' II. CONCEPTS AND DEFINITIONS 7 A. POWER 7 1. Definitions and Characteristics 7 2. The Functions of Power 11 3. Components of Power and the Ways of Categorization 12 B. SMALL STATES AND INTERNATIONAL SYSTEMS 14 1. Definitions of a Small Stale 14 2. Small Stales and International Systems 15 111. ROLES AND STRATEGIES OF SMALL STATES 19 A. THE ROLES OF SMALL STATES : A GEOPOLITICAL APPROACH.. 19 1. A Buffer Stale 19 2. A Client 21 3. A Balancer of A Holder of the Balance 23 4. A Risklaker ? 24 13. STRATEGIES OF SMALL STATES 27 1. Aims or National Interests of Small Stales 27 2. Strategies of Small Stales 30 a. Military Build-Up 30 b. Economic Independence 31 c. Neutrality 33 d. Alliance 35 (1) Balancing and Bandwagoning 36 (2) Bilateral Alliance (with A Great Power) 38 (3) Multilateral Alliance 39 VII (4) Alliance among Small States 40 e. Non-Alignment . 41 f. Collective Security 42 IV. HYPOTHESES 45 A. HEGEMONIC THEORY 45 B. BALANCE OF POWER THEORY 47 V. CASE STUDIES 55 A. THE CONCERT OF EUROPE 55 1. The Restored Balance (1815-1848): The Congress of Vienna 56 2. The Shattered Balance (1848-1871) 58 3. The Bismarckian Balance (1871-1890) 61 4. Imperial Rivalry (1890-1914) 66 5. Analysis 75 B. THE INTERWAR PERIOD 77 1. The Collapse of the Old Balance of Power 77 2. The New Balance of Power : The Locarno System 80 3. The Collapse of the Interwar Balance of Power 83 4. Analysis 85 C. THE COLD WAR ERA 87 1. Patron-Client Relationship : The U.S. - Israeli Case 91 - a. Domestic Level .....92 b. Regional Level 94 c. Global Level 95 2. Rules of the Patron-Client Relations 96 3. Analysis 100 D. THE POST-COLD WAR ERA 101 1. The Nuclear Adventures of Ukraine and North Korea 102 a. Ukraine 102 viii b. North Korea 105 2. Comparative Analysis 109 a. Threats Perceived 109 b. Socio-Political Aspect 112 c. Military Aspect 112 d. Nuclear Technology 113 e. Experiences of International Negotiations 114 f. Collective Security System 115 S- A Powerful Sponsor ? 116 3. Analysis 117 VI. CONCLUSION 119 A. IMPLICATIONS FOR THEORIES : THE COMPARISON OF THE TWO THEORIES 119 B. IMPLICATIONS FOR SMALL STATES POLICIES 122 C. THE ROLE OF KOREA AS A BALANCER IN NORTHEAST ASIA : SUGGESTIONS FOR A POLICY 123 1. Is the Future Really Gloomy ? 124 a. Historical Distrust 124 b. Territorial Disputes 126 c. Industrial Development and Economic Growth 127 d. Military Expenditures and Aims Race 130 (1) Military Posture of Japan 131 (2) Military Posture of China 134 e. Inexperience of Cooperation 137 _ f Nuclear Proliferation 138 2. Suggestions 141 a. Balancing 141 b. Bandwagoning 145 3. Conclusion 145 BIBLIOGRAPHY : 147 INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST 157 IX X LIST OF TABLES 1. US Assistance to Israel, 1955-1983 93 2. US Assistance to Arab Front Line and Primary Backers 94 3. The Changing Percentage of Arms Imported from the United States and NATO and the USSR by Middle Eastern Countries 95 4. The Comparison of the Two Structural Theories 120 5. The Comparison of the Validity of the Hypotheses 120 6. Defense Expenditures and Percentage in GNP, 1984-1993 130 7. Armed Forces of Japan and China 132 8. Chinese Nuclear Forces, 1993 140 XI Xll LIST OF FIGURES 1.