NI: IN PROFILE Key statistics on Northern Ireland 11 February 2020 (Based on data available at December 2019) NI: IN PROFILE NISRA: Trusted statistics & research for a better society The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA), which incorporates the General Register Office (GRO), is an executive agency within the Department of Finance (NI) and was established on 1 April 1996. NISRA is the principal source of Official Statistics and social research on Northern Ireland. These statistics and research not only inform public policy but also academic The next Census is due to take place in 2021. and private sector research, and contribute to debate in the wider community. NISRA’s Once every ten years the census provides an opportunity to services are afforded to a wide range of Government Departments and Non- build a detailed and comprehensive picture of the population, Departmental Public Bodies, as well as Local Councils to assist the policy process and reflecting everyone in our society. The results are invaluable for policy formation, planning services and the effective targeting delivery of their objectives and actions. NISRA is also responsible for conducting the of resources. decennial Census of Population. The census is critical as it provides a reference base for many statistical series such as population estimates and social surveys. Only the census provides consistent statistics for small areas and population groups across NI. Your co-operation is essential in order to ensure that the census provides an accurate picture Niall O’Neill, of your local area. Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency, Colby House, For the first time it is proposed that the census will be primarily Stranmillis Court, online and more convenient to complete for the majority of the Belfast, BT9 5RR www.nisra.gov.uk population. 2 NI: IN PROFILE NI: IN PROFILE is a resource pack of key statistics covering a range of areas of life in Northern Ireland. The pack brings together a variety of data into a single place and will be of interest to a broad audience, including policy makers in the public and private sector, businesses, students and academics, schools and the general public. Statistics have primarily been sourced from across the Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency, however where official statistics are not available statistics from other sources have been included. The pack is intended to provide a high-level statistical summary of life in Northern Ireland and you will note that it does not include detailed commentary. If you wish to delve further into the detail of a particular statistic, you are encouraged to follow the links provided. Data may also be available at smaller geographies through NISRA’s Neighbourhood Information Service, NINIS. Thanks are due to those NISRA statisticians working across all government departments who advised on the most appropriate statistics to include within their own area of expertise. NISRA would also like to extend its thanks to the members of the general public and businesses who have contributed to the provision of the statistics through their participation in the various surveys that the Agency conducts - without your participation and co-operation the provision of this resource pack would not be possible. The pack is available from the NISRA website. In the interests of continuous improvement and adding value, NISRA is keen to hear your feedback on NI: IN PROFILE and would appreciate any comments you may have (please e-mail comments to Niall.O’[email protected]). 3 CONTENTS THEME PAGE THEME PAGE POPULATION 5 HEALTH 23 HOUSEHOLDS 9 CRIME & JUSTICE 25 HOUSING 11 AGRICULTURE 27 ECONOMY 13 ENVIRONMENT 29 LABOUR MARKET 15 TECHNOLOGY 31 WELFARE 17 PUBLIC EXPENDITURE 33 EDUCATION 19 EU EXIT 35 TRAVEL & TRANSPORT 21 POLITICAL 37 4 POPULATION NI: IN PROFILE Population growing – currently stands at 1.88 million. Links to statistics • Growth is mainly due to natural change (births-deaths). Net migration is a smaller factor. • Population Estimates • Population is ageing; the 1960s baby-boom will drive faster ageing in the next decade. • In just 8 years time we are projected to have more older people (65+) than children. • Population Projections • There are currently 26 people aged 65+ for every 100 people of working age; in 25 years time there will be 42. • Registrar General Report • The fertility rate among women aged under 30 has more than halved since the mid-1970s. • NI Census Total Population 2043 projection: 2,000,000 1,989,200 1,900,000 2018: 1,881,600 1,800,000 1,700,000 1995 Population Pyramid It took around 150 years for the population to return to the pre-famine level. Age 100 Mid-2043 Mid-2043 90 1,600,000 Start of ‘The Troubles’ 80 1968 70 1,500,000 60 World War I World War II 50 1914-1918 1939-1945 40 1,400,000 30 Mid-2018 Mid-2018 20 1,300,000 10 0 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 Male Female Thousands 1,200,000 Thousands 1821 1841 1861 1881 1901 1921 1941 1961 1981 2001 2021 20432041 Source: 2018 Mid-year Population Estimates for NI, 2018-based Population Projections, NI Census 5 NI: IN PROFILE POPULATION Components of Population Change Fertility Rate of Women aged 15-44* Live births per 1,000 DID YOU KNOW? Net migration is inward minus women 20,000 Mid-2017 to Mid-2018 Births: 23,100 outward migration (includes migration to/from 120 117.2 Deaths: 16,400 In Migration: 23,600 ROI, rest of the UK, rest of the world). Natural 16,000 Out Migration: 19,400 change is births minus deaths. 15-29 year olds 10093.8 All: 15-44* 12,000 80 70.9 62.9 8,000 60 63.5 30-44 year olds 55.5 4,000 40 0 20 -4,000 0 2001 2007 2013 2018 1974 1985 1996 2007 2018 * Rate for age 15 includes births at younger ages and for age 44 includes births at older ages. Source: 2018 Mid-year Population Estimates for NI Source: Registrar General Annual Report 60 Older People (65+) and Children (0-15) per 100 People Aged 16-64 Proportion of Deaths by Cause of Death 1971: 54 50% DID YOU KNOW? Deaths from 50 circulatory disease (e.g. heart attack 2043 projection: 42 and stroke) have more than halved 40% since the early 1980s. 40 2018: 33 30% 29% 30 28% 2043 projection: 30 Cancer 23% 2018: 26 20% 20 1971: 19 14% Respiratory Diseases 10 Older People (65+) Children (0-15) 10% 6% External Causes 0 0% 1971 1991 2011 2031 2043 1983 1992 2001 2010 2018 Source: 2018 Mid-year Population Estimates for NI, 2018-based Population Projections *Note there was a change of coding framework from ICD-9 to ICD-10 in 2001. Source: Registrar General Annual Report 6 NI: IN PROFILE POPULATION NI: IN PROFILE One in five people have a disability or limiting long-term illness. Links to statistics • One in nine people provide unpaid care to someone with a health problem, disability, or problems due to old age. • Population Estimates • One in three households have a dependent child. • Three in five people live in an urban area. • Population Projections • The number of marriages in NI has reduced by more than a third since 1970. • Vital Statistics th • 25 August is the most popular day for marriages. • NI Census Population by Local Government District and urban/rural region, 2018 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 Belfast 341,900 Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon 214,100 Newry, Mourne & Down 180,000 Ards & North Down 160,900 NI Population - Urban and Rural Areas, 2018 Derry City & Strabane 150,700 Rural >60mins Mid Ulster 147,400 from Belfast 13% Urban Lisburn & Castlereagh 144,400 Mixed urban/rural Rural <=60mins from Belfast Rural <=60mins from Belfast 23% Causeway Coast & Glens 144,200 Rural >60mins from Belfast Urban 60% Antrim & Newtownabbey 142,500 Mixed urban/ rural Mid & East Antrim 138,800 5% 62% Fermanagh & Omagh 116,800 Source: 2018 Mid-year Population Estimates for NI 7 NI: IN PROFILE POPULATION Population Aged 85+ by Age and Sex, 2018 Population characteristics (from 2011 Census) People Sex Female 51% Male 49% 100+ 13.0% 87.0% 300 Age 0-15 21% 16-24 13% 25-34 13% 35-44 14% 45-54 14% 55-64 11% 65+ 15% Marital Status Married (including civil partnerships) 48% Single 36% Separated/Divorced/ Widowed 16% Religion/Religion None Other 95-99 24.4% 75.6% 2,600 Protestant or Other Christian 49% Catholic 45% brought up in 6% 1% Other Ethnic Group White 98% 2% Northern Irish Only National Identity British Only 40% Irish Only 25% Other 14% 21% 90-94 31.1% 68.9% 10,200 Disability/Long- Yes 21% term Illness No 79% Dependent Children Yes 34% No 66% (% of households) 85-89 37.0% 63.0% 24,600 Provide Unpaid Care Yes 12% No 88% Source: 2011 Census, % of population unless otherwise stated Source: NISRA Estimates of the Population Aged 85 and Over DID YOU KNOW? NISRA incorporates the General Register Office (GRO) for NI. The GRO is responsible for the administration of the marriage and civil partnership law along with the registration of births, deaths, adoptions and gender recognition. GRO is also responsible for the maintenance of registration records and the production of certificates for these events. Marriages and divorces, 1887 – 2018* Average number of marriages by date, 2004-2018 <5 5-14.9 15-24.9 25-34.9 35-44.9 45+ 14,000 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th 19th 20th 21st 22nd 23rd 24th 25th 26th 27th 28th 29th 30th 31st 1970 Jan 12,297 12,000 Feb Marriages Mar 10,000 Apr 8,000 7,966 May 6,851 Jun 6,000 Jul 53.0 45.2 Aug 48.0 48.1 49.6 50.5 53.6 45.8 50.9 4,000 Divorces Sep 45.3 2,000 2,073 Oct 339 Nov 0 1887 1971 2018 Dec 48.1 46.2 *Figures do not include civil partnerships.