China’s Industrial and Military Robotics Development by Jonathan Ray, Katie Atha, Edward Francis, Caleb Dependahl, Dr. James Mulvenon, Daniel Alderman, and Leigh Ann Ragland-Luce Research Report Prepared on Behalf of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission October 2016 Disclaimer: This research report was prepared at the request of the Commission to support its deliberations. Posting of the Report to the Commission's website is intended to promote greater public understanding of the issues addressed by the Commission in its ongoing assessment of U.S.-China economic relations and their implications for U.S. security, as mandated by Public Law 106-398 and Public Law 113-291. However, it does not necessarily imply an endorsement by the Commission or any individual Commissioner of the views or conclusions expressed in this commissioned research report. i About Defense Group Incorporated Defense Group Inc. (DGI) performs work in the national interest, advancing public safety and national security through innovative research, analysis, and applied technology. The DGI enterprise conducts research and analysis in defense and intelligence problem areas, provides high- level systems engineering services to selected national and homeland security organizations, and produces hardware and software products for government and commercial consumers. About CIRA This project was conducted within DGI’s Center for Intelligence Research and Analysis (CIRA), the premier open source and cultural intelligence exploitation cell for the U.S. intelligence community. Staffed by an experienced team of cleared analysts with advanced language skills, CIRA’s mission is to provide cutting-edge, open source, and cultural intelligence support to the collection, analytical, and operational activities of the U.S. intelligence community, with the goal of achieving national strategic objectives. CIRA accomplishes its mission through the conduct of objective, independent, and relevant research and analysis under strict quality guidelines. Comments may be sent to the vice president of the Intelligence Division, Dr. James Mulvenon. Dr. James Mulvenon Vice President, Intelligence Division Director, Center for Intelligence Research and Analysis (CIRA) Defense Group, Incorporated 2650 Park Tower Drive, Suite 300 Vienna, VA 22180 TEL: 571-421-8359 Email: [email protected] ii Acronyms Acronym Full Name A2/AD Anti-Access/Area Denial ACTUV Continuous Trail Unmanned Vessel AFM Atomic Force Microscopy AGIC Asia-Germany Industrial Promotion Capital AI Artificial Intelligence AIP Air-Independent Propulsion AMP Advanced Manufacturing Partnership ARV Autonomous and Remotely Operated Vehicle ASBM Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile ASW Anti-Submarine Warfare AUV Autonomous Underwater Vehicle AVIC Aviation Industry Corporation of China AWS Amazon Web Services BAT Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent BINN Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing Institute of Nanoenergy and Nanosystems BIS Bureau of Industry Security BIT Beijing Institute of Technology BUAA Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics CAA Chinese Association of Automation CAAI Chinese Association for Artificial Intelligence CAC Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group CADI Chengdu Aircraft Design Institute CAE Chinese Academy of Engineering CAS Chinese Academy of Sciences CASIC China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation CAST China Association for Science and Technology CCF China Computer Federation CCW Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons CEO Chief Executive Officer CFIUS Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States CMIF China Machinery Industry Federation CMS China Military Science CNC Computer Numerical Control COCOM Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls CRIA China Robot Industry Alliance CSIC China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation DARPA Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency DLMU Dalian Maritime University DOJ United States Department of Justice DSV Deep Sea Submergence Vehicle EMW Electromagnetic Maneuver Warfare EOD Explosive Ordnance Disposal FYP Five Year Plan GAD General Armament Department GM General Motors GPS Global Positioning System GPU Graphics Processing Unit GSD People’s Liberation Army General Staff Department HEU Harbin Engineering University HIT Harbin Institute of Technology HRG Harbin Institute of Technology Robot Group iii IFR International Federation of Robotics IIM Institute of Intelligent Machines IPR Intellectual Property Rights ISR Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance IT Information Technology ITA International Trade Administration LAWS Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems MEMS Microelectromechanical Systems MHC Meaningful Human Control MIIT Ministry of Industry and Information Technology MLP National Medium- and Long-Term Plan for the Development of Science and Technology MOST Ministry of Science and Technology NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NDRC National Development and Reform Commission NORINCO China North Industries Group Corporation NSFC Natural Science Foundation of China NUAA Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics NUDT National University of Defense Technology NWPU Northwest Polytechnic University OS Operating System PLA People’s Liberation Army PLAAF People’s Liberation Army Air Force PLAN People’s Liberation Army Navy PLARF People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force PLC Programmable Logic Controller PRC People’s Republic of China R&D Research and Development RI Research Institute RMA Revolution in Military Affairs RMB Renminbi ROUV Remotely Operated Underwater Vehicles ROV Remotely Operated Vehicle S&T Science and Technology SADI Shenyang Aircraft Design Institute SASAC State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission SASTIND State Administration for Science, Technology and Industry for National Defence SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organization SEAD Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses SIA Shenyang Institute of Automation SMS Science of Military Strategy SMU Shanghai Maritime University SVAIL Baidu Silicon Valley AI Laboratory TCAIPR China Computer Federation Artificial Intelligence and Pattern Recognition Committee UAV Unmanned Aerial Vehicle UCAV Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle UGV Unmanned Ground Vehicle U.S. United States USD United States Dollar USITC United States International Trade Commission USV Unmanned Surface Vehicle UUV Unmanned Underwater Vehicle VC Venture Capital iv WFOE Wholly Owned Foreign-Owned Enterprise v Contents About Defense Group Incorporated............................................................................................ ii About CIRA ................................................................................................................................... ii Acronyms ...................................................................................................................................... iii Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................... 9 Recommendations ....................................................................................................................... 12 Scope and Limitations ................................................................................................................ 14 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 15 Chapter One: Industrial Robotics in China ............................................................................. 17 History and Political Support for China’s Industrial Robots ............................................. 18 History of Industrial Robots in China ................................................................................... 18 Chinese Leadership Openly Supports Industrial Robotics ................................................... 21 Chinese Policies for Industrial Robots are Equally Ambitious ............................................ 22 Overall Trends in China’s Adoption of Industrial Robots ................................................. 26 Characteristics and Leading Industries of China’s Robotics Market .................................... 27 China’s Robotics Industry Remains Comparatively Underdeveloped ................................. 29 Problems in China’s Industrial Robotics Industry and Research...................................... 30 Lack of Elite Talent .............................................................................................................. 31 Lack of Balance between Basic and Applied Research ........................................................ 31 Poor Quality of Domestically Produced Systems ................................................................. 32 Intense Competition among Chinese Companies ................................................................. 32 Chinese Consumers Not Using Robots Made in China ........................................................ 32 Dependency on Imports for Key Components and Technologies ........................................ 33 Chinese Robotics Software Development ............................................................................. 33 Impact on Chinese and Global Labor Markets ................................................................... 34 Opportunities and Challenges for U.S. Industrial Robot Exporters ................................. 35 Leading Industrial Robot Companies and R&D Entities ..................................................