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Dissertation Air Transport Pilot Supply and Demand Current State and Effects of Recent Legislation Michael McGee C O R P O R A T I O N Dissertation Air Transport Pilot Supply and Demand Current State and Effects of Recent Legislation Michael McGee This document was submitted as a dissertation in March 2015 in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the doctoral degree in public policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. The faculty committee that supervised and approved the dissertation consisted of Dr. Al Robbert (Chair), Dr. Ray Conley, and Dr. Suzanne Buono. PARDEE RAND GRADUATE SCHOOL The Pardee RAND Graduate School dissertation series reproduces dissertations that have been approved by the student’s dissertation committee. The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/permissions.html). Published 2015 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Abstract Many airline industry experts have recently predicted crippling shortages in the supply of Airline Transport Pilots. The main reasons for concern in the United States over pilot shortages arises from recent legislation stemming from the 2009 Colgan air crash, an impending wave of mandatory retirements, a decreasing supply of new professional pilots into the pipeline, and major airline expansion. This study provides a comprehensive Airline Transport Pilot (ATP) supply and demand model and then assesses the current and future ATP supply and demand pipeline, to include the impact on the U.S. military pilot population. Subsequently, it evaluates policy options available to government, industry, and the military to mitigate any potential shortfalls in the future supply chain. This study finds there will not be a civilian system-wide pilot shortage in the near-term, though the system will become strained. Low-paying airlines will continue to have difficulties finding qualified pilots. All operators will experience fewer applicants for the available positions, potentially resulting in less qualified pilots system-wide. Barring any policy changes, the military will experience an inventory shortage in the near-term. iii Table of Contents Abstract .......................................................................................................................................... iii Figures............................................................................................................................................ ix Tables ............................................................................................................................................. xi Summary ...................................................................................................................................... xiii Acknowledgments......................................................................................................................... xv Abbreviations .............................................................................................................................. xvii 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1 Organization ............................................................................................................................................. 6 Primary Aim ............................................................................................................................................. 6 Problem Significance ................................................................................................................................ 7 Important Terms ....................................................................................................................................... 7 Federal Aviation Regulations (FAR) ................................................................................................... 7 Pilot Categories .................................................................................................................................... 8 Relevant Pilot Certificates .................................................................................................................... 8 Relevant Pilot Ratings .......................................................................................................................... 9 Classifications of Medical Certificates ................................................................................................. 9 Airline Classifications as Employed in this Study ............................................................................. 10 Background............................................................................................................................................. 10 Research Questions ................................................................................................................................ 12 Sources of Data ....................................................................................................................................... 12 Research Methodology ........................................................................................................................... 15 The Model .......................................................................................................................................... 15 2013 Baseline ..................................................................................................................................... 20 Pilot Demand ...................................................................................................................................... 23 Pilot Supply ........................................................................................................................................ 28 2. Literature Review ...................................................................................................................... 30 ATP Supply and Demand ....................................................................................................................... 30 Military ................................................................................................................................................... 34 Independent Variables ............................................................................................................................ 38 3. Pilot Demand ............................................................................................................................ 45 Demand for ATPs ................................................................................................................................... 45 Majors ................................................................................................................................................. 45 Minors ...............................................................................................................................................