Christian Retail 2018 Year in Review Bright Spots Amid Changes Analysis of $63 million in sales, 2.2 million consumer receipts, and 125 surveyed retailers reveals the leading trends of 2018 and identifies top strategies for Christian retail success in 2019. Bright Spots Amid Changes 2018 was quite a headline-making year for Christian retail. Between the trade organization shake-up then disappearance, industry-wide technology launches, marketing group leadership changes, publishing mergers and acquisitions, store closings and openings, and new releases that flew off shelves surpassing sales projections—the list of major Christian retail news stories is long. But stories don’t paint the entire picture. This report provides data and insights into the state of Christian retailing in 2018 and reveals key lessons retailers and brands can take away from them for the future. Findings including: • Leading trends in product categories • Comparisons of bestsellers across channels • Analysis of 2018 Christian Retail sales • Shifts inretailer outlook • Trends in retail needs and marketing spending • Strategies for reaching new audiences 2018 Christian Retail Year in Review 3 06 Top 2018 headlines 08 Leading trends in product categories 14 Comparisons of bestsellers across channels 25 Analysis of 2018 Christian Retail sales 29 2018 Christian retailer survey results 30 Strategies for 2019 success 39 A note from Greg Squires 40 Methodology & sources 2018 Christian Retail Year in Review 4 “ ” GET IT LOCAL HACHETTE TOYS R US ABA INDIES ADD ACQUIRES CLOSES; 96 STORES TODAY RETAILERS GRAB FOR AND REPORT PROGRAM LAUNCHES WORTHY TOY SALES 5% YOY INCREASE* MUNCE ANNOUNCES NEW CHRISTIAN RETAIL ASSOCIATION LIFEWAY’S 2018 RAINER TO HEADLINES STEP DOWN PRINT BOOK AS CEO SALES RISE CBA FOR 6TH SELLS, 46% OF CHRISTIAN RETAILERS B&N YEAR IN A ROW, DROPS STAFF * FIRES RELIGION OUTPACES AND GOES DARK BY 2%* UP OR FLAT CEO & SEEKS A BUYER AMAZON MAILS AMAZON POTRATZ SELECTS DAIGLE TOPS STORE COUNT RISES NEW LEADER PRINT CATALOGS BILLBOARDS AT THE PARABLE GROUP TO MILLIONS OF HOMES TO 18 *SEE SOURCE ON PAGE 32 Industry leaders reflect back on 2018 “With the changes at CBA, we are glad to see greater “Independent Christian stores are lighthouses in their com- collaboration among the marketing groups this year. We munities—serving as important community centers, while believe this will unify the industry and have a positive connecting consumers with life-changing content. ABA has impact on the Christian bookselling channel.” seen a resurgence in independent bookstores as they have adapted to the changing retail marketplace. We’re seeing – Sharon Heggeland, Tyndale House Publishers similar results on the Christian retail landscape; Christian stores are adjusting to the “new realities” of retail in our “We were pleased to see the Get It Local Today program day and are finding success in serving their customers as go live in 2018. We are making it a priority to support the they move into the future.” program, which provides a meaningful way for publish- ers to drive foot traffic to local stocking bookstores.” – Chuck Wallington, Covenant Group – Tom Knight, HarperCollins Christian Publishing “It was heartening to see that print books sales increased for the 6th year in a row. The truth is that people still love to read…and buy books!” – Barry Berglund, Parables, Omaha, NE 2018 Christian Retail Year in Review 6 Leading trends in product categories 2018 sales data from U.S. Christian retailers across marketing groups, church stores, and other independents as reported to Parable- Connect yielded some key takeaways. 2018 Christian Retail Year in Review 7 Books and 2018 Market Share by Units 2018 Market Share by Dollars Bibles (Christian Retail) (Christian Retail) % % Other 1 % continue Church Supplies 8% Church Supplies 8 Other 0 Movies 3% Movies 3% Music 4% Music 4% to be a % Cards 5 significant Books % Books Cards 35 38% portion of 16% Gifts 24% sales. Gifts Bibles 26% 20% Bibles 7% Note: Identifiable sales data from U.S. Christian retailers across marketing groups, church stores, and other independents as reported to ParableConnect. Source: The Parable Group, Jan. 10, 2019 “Cards” also include Stationery in the category. 2018 Christian Retail Year in Review 8 2018 Bible Translation Market Share (Christian Retail) 40% NIV continues to hold its own 30% NIV 28.9% as the #1 Bible NLT 15.3% KJV 14.7% translation. % NKJV 11.9% 20 ESV 9.9% CSB 3.8% NIrV 2.2% 10% NASB 1.9% CSB market share MSG 1.5% doubled from 4% prior year. 3% 2% 1% Note: Sales data from U.S. Christian retailers 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 across marketing groups, church stores, and other independents as reported to ParableConnect. Source: The Parable Group, Jan. 10, 2019 2018 Christian Retail Year in Review 9 2018 Top Adult Book Category Market Share (Christian Retail) 40% Devotional sales Christian Living increased compared Devotionals 30% Fiction to prior years and Women reach bestseller lists. Bible Study 20% Biography Fiction continues to Gift Books Pastoral Helps 10% drive sales. It’s the Prayer third largest book Love & Marriage category and has 6% flattened out the 5% last 3 years. 4% Womens’ books climb 3 years in a row. 3% 2% Note: Sales data from U.S. Christian retailers across marketing groups, church stores, and other independents as reported to ParableConnect. 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: The Parable Group, Jan. 10, 2019 2018 Christian Retail Year in Review 10 Just under 1/3 of 2018 Top 10 Fiction Authors by Market Share (Christian Retail) all fiction sales come from these 10 Francine Rivers #1 7.83% authors. Retailers Karen Kingsbury #2 5.89% who aren’t stocking Terri Blackstock #3 4.52% complete series Joel C. Rosenberg #4 4.51% and/or a larger Beverly Lewis #5 4.07% selection of titles Wanda E. Brunstetter #6 3.25% from these authors Tracie Peterson #7 are likely missing 2.43% sales opportunities. Colleen Coble #8 2.16% Sharon Garlough Brown #9 1.97% Irene Hannon #10 1.88% Note: Sales data from U.S. Christian retailers across marketing groups, church stores, and other independents as reported to ParableConnect. Source: The Parable Group, Jan. 10, 2019 2018 Christian Retail Year in Review 11 2018 Top 10 Non-Fiction Authors by Market Share (Christian Retail) New releases drive backlist Sarah Young #1 4.8% sales. Don’t miss Max Lucado #2 2.75% potential sales Joyce Meyer #3 2.13% by having limited Lysa TerKeurst #4 1.24% Priscilla Shirer #5 1.24% selection of these David Jeremiah #6 1.07% author’s backlist Billy Graham #7 1.03% books. Jack Countryman #8 0.93% Gary Chapman #9 0.73% Bob Goff #10 0.64% Note: Sales data from U.S. Christian retailers across marketing groups, church stores, and other independents as reported to ParableConnect. Source: The Parable Group, Jan. 10, 2019 2018 Christian Retail Year in Review 12 Comparisons of bestsellers across channels Some interesting takeaways can be found with deeper analysis of not only the Christian Retail bestseller lists, but also the NPD BookScan™ data. Here are some findings across product categories, release dates, and overall differences between Christian and mainstream bookstores. 2018 Christian Retail Year in Review 13 I Can Only Imagine Provident Love Does Thomas Nelson 1 Distribution 11 Bob Goff Publishers I Can Only Imagine the Provident The Jesus Storybook Bible Zondervan Top 20 2 Best of Mercyme Distribution 12 Sally Lloyd-Jones MercyMe Jesus Calling Thomas Nelson God Will Carry You Through Thomas Nelson Publishers Publishers Products 3 Sarah Young 13 Max Lucado NIV, the Story Zondervan The Beginner’s Bible Zondervan 4 14 of 2018 Look Up Child Capitol Christian Jesus Always Thomas Nelson 5 Lauren Daigle Distribution 15 Sarah Young Publishers (Christian Unshakable Hope Thomas Nelson War Room Provident Distribution 6 Max Lucado Publishers 16 Retail) God Hears Her Discovery House 10 Comics Walk Into A Church Crown Entertainment 7 Our Daily Bread Ministries 17 Jesus Always Small Deluxe Thomas Nelson Christmas Presence The Parable Group 8 Sarah Young Publishers 18 Lucid Artist Everybody, Always Thomas Nelson The 5 Love Languages Moody Publishers 9 Bob Goff Publishers 19 Gary Chapman Uninvited Thomas Nelson Awaken, Deluxe Edition B & H Publishing 10 Lysa TerKeurst Publishers 20 Priscilla Shirer Group Note: Sales data from U.S. Christian retailers across mar- keting groups, church stores, and other independents as reported to ParableConnect. Source: The Parable Group, Jan. 10, 2019 2018 Christian Retail Year in Review 14 Key Takeways - Christian Retail Bestsellers Physical music and movies are not going away Devotionals Draw and Delight 30% of the Top 20 products sold at Christian Retail 25% of the top 20 and 15% of the top 100 were in 2018 were media (CD or DVD.) Looking beyond devotionals, dominated by Sarah Young. the top 20, there are even more media - 10% of the top 50 and 25% of the top 100 are CDs or DVDs. Bibles are always Bestsellers Despite the domination of streaming movies and While Bibles only represented 1 of the top 20 and music, both seem to be moving at Christian Retail. 8% of the top 100 bestselling products in 2018, that “We are not getting out of the physical game any is largely due to the numerous bindings surrounding time soon! When half the sales of many Christian a single title, somewhat diluting the overall best- artists are found in physical sales, this is still a sellers presence of the Word of God. Bibles viable, and vital, category.” still make up 20% of all identifiable sales. - Blake Davis, Capitol Christian Music Group. 2018 Christian Retail Year in Review 15 Frontlist vs. Backlist Frontlist Backlist Sold at Christian Retail 15% 85% Christian Products Sold Everywhere 45% 55% Surprising Statistics Backlist Booming Frontlist Lacking 15% of the top 20 products in Christian It also shows that Christian Retailers One Christian publisher suggested Retail released in 2018.